Yesterday's gold plunge, the core was Trump's withdrawal remarks + profit-taking + USD/US bond linkage
As a result, spot gold plummeted from $5,530 to $5,105 within 1 hour, with a maximum intraday drop of 5.7%, a rare fluctuation in recent times
Let's talk about the general incident
On the morning of the 29th, due to Trump's military threat to Iran, spot gold once approached a record high of $5,600; Late at night, Trump suddenly changed his words and said that he would withdraw troops from Iran, triggering a market safe-haven reversal + profit-taking, and the price of gold plummeted by more than $400 in 1 hour, and then rebounded slightly, finally closing at $5,377.4 per ounce.
Spot silver plummeted by more than 8% simultaneously, U.S. stocks and U.S. dollar assets briefly strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly.
The three core reasons for the plunge
1. Reversal of risk-off logic: The withdrawal rhetoric quickly cooled down tensions in the Middle East, and the "panic premium" of gold disappeared instantly, with buying orders suddenly stopped and selling orders pouring out.
2. High profit-taking: The price of gold has hit a record high before, with a single-day fluctuation of more than $500, and short-term speculative funds are eager to fall into the pocket, exacerbating the decline.
3. Resonance between the US dollar and US bonds: Safe-haven cooling + Fed policy expectations have pushed the US dollar stronger, US Treasury yields have risen, and the inverse relationship between gold and US dollars has emerged, further suppressing gold prices.
Short-term gold (next 1-3 trading days) is likely to fluctuate in a wide range and repair at a low level, and it is difficult to quickly return to above $5,5,500, with 5,200–5,380 support and 5,450–5,500 resistance at the core.
So, I'm short!
$XAUT #金价突破5500美元
As a result, spot gold plummeted from $5,530 to $5,105 within 1 hour, with a maximum intraday drop of 5.7%, a rare fluctuation in recent times
Let's talk about the general incident
On the morning of the 29th, due to Trump's military threat to Iran, spot gold once approached a record high of $5,600; Late at night, Trump suddenly changed his words and said that he would withdraw troops from Iran, triggering a market safe-haven reversal + profit-taking, and the price of gold plummeted by more than $400 in 1 hour, and then rebounded slightly, finally closing at $5,377.4 per ounce.
Spot silver plummeted by more than 8% simultaneously, U.S. stocks and U.S. dollar assets briefly strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly.
The three core reasons for the plunge
1. Reversal of risk-off logic: The withdrawal rhetoric quickly cooled down tensions in the Middle East, and the "panic premium" of gold disappeared instantly, with buying orders suddenly stopped and selling orders pouring out.
2. High profit-taking: The price of gold has hit a record high before, with a single-day fluctuation of more than $500, and short-term speculative funds are eager to fall into the pocket, exacerbating the decline.
3. Resonance between the US dollar and US bonds: Safe-haven cooling + Fed policy expectations have pushed the US dollar stronger, US Treasury yields have risen, and the inverse relationship between gold and US dollars has emerged, further suppressing gold prices.
Short-term gold (next 1-3 trading days) is likely to fluctuate in a wide range and repair at a low level, and it is difficult to quickly return to above $5,5,500, with 5,200–5,380 support and 5,450–5,500 resistance at the core.
So, I'm short!
$XAUT #金价突破5500美元
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