WaterExpoChaos

What the heck.....
Today, a big holder actually bought 4,750 BTC worth of 75k puts expiring on May 29, and also opened 60,000 ETH, with 2,100 puts expiring on May 29 as well..
All the rights ended up costing over $6 million....
Are they betting on a drop?

Today’s Market
The liquidity + absorption at 80k for this low-long position—from the weekend until yesterday, it finally got absorbed.. This wave first eats 1000 points..
Right now, the upper side still appears to be suppressed by the target guy’s 3000 BTC sell orders at 81,275.. (Figure 1)
During the Asian session, it absorbed some buy orders during the day, and there were about 1000 actual transactions, so this isn’t spoofing.. There are still 2000 left suppressing..
Just now during the European trading session as well, a large wave of aggressive buy orders was absorbed—once it was f

Today’s Market
Nothing much good has happened from yesterday to today... Continuing to wait...
Overall, there are no significant changes...
Figure 1: The order book is the same as yesterday... Sell pressure is still below 83k. The buy orders below are also still below 80k. The buy orders are not very large, so there is no imbalance band appearing below now.
The contract is also roughly in the same range as the spot. The only new addition is contract 81275, suspected to be close to 3,000 BTC sell orders from Target哥... which suppressed the entire Asian session today.
We need to wait f

This week, five research reports and timing signals all indicate a buy for U.S. stocks... After review, the main recommendation is still SM... It is an oil stock...
This one was actually promoted two weeks ago... Then from 28 to 31, reaching TP1.
This week, it once again entered the recommended range... The underlying logic is, do you think $90 oil prices can be maintained into Q3?
Stock selection process: Seeking Alpha high-scoring stocks -> Local research reports + local timing agent scoring (Figure 1) -> Opus 4.7 (Figures 2,3) and GPT 5.5 (Figure 4) for review...
Entry range suggest

AI - A Shares (1)
There has also been a lot done in A-shares... The simplest and most straightforward approach is to replicate the US stock market's research report - timing system...
Research reports focus on stock characteristics, macro background, valuation and earnings expectations, growth quality and competitive landscape, catalysts, capital flow, risk audits, shareholder structure, etc...
Timing looks at trend setting, phase identification, capital confirmation, technical analysis, etc...
But there are too many targets, and A-shares don't have something like the US stock market's

AI - BTC (1)
After discussing gold, let's continue to look at some of the research AI has done on BTC over the past period...
The first of course is similar to the gold approach. If multi-agent trading can work with gold, can it also work with BTC? After all, there is more data on BTC...
For this part, I really searched for a ton of data... Almost everything from the MMT API, which costs $499 a month, was used... to develop this part...
It's also based on the multi-agent idea, including ICT / Price action / Liquidity / Scalping, and various other strategies...
The final result is som

Today’s market...
Yesterday, this wave dropped 80,000 but couldn't hold... Even with minimal delta in the Asian session, it still touched 79.1k...
The first question to answer today is whether 82.8k is the stage top... Can we consider the pattern to be bearish (different from intraday short)?.
Let's look at two main aspects first.
Figure 1: Based on the symmetry of this wave, if it’s to follow the previous two waves... there’s still some distance to a 5.5~5.8% pullback... To complete this wave, it’s roughly around 78k. At the same time, 78k is also the POC support level and the spot order supp

Today’s Market...
Had a bit of a failure yesterday... In the end, Iran’s one response was enough to push it down.
From the data, although the total delta has reached, and open interest has decreased... but because the order book on the upside still hasn't reached the threshold, and no real entry model has emerged... So it doesn't meet my entry conditions, and I missed a short move...
Continuing to watch today...
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Figure 1: Order Book
Currently, the situation on the order book isn't much different from yesterday... A new sell order was placed below 83k...
And the support from

Today’s Market
Still driven by continuous news factors... Oil prices fall, U.S. stocks rise, gold rises, BTC rises...
At this time, if you have been reading research reports in the group, you should feel quite comfortable... (see the previous message)
Back to today, we will continue to focus on the intraday market
Figure 1 Order book imbalance color band...
Still maintaining yesterday’s judgment... Without an upper color band... here, I still advise holding off on short-term swing trades...
The reason there is no color band here yet is because the sell orders haven't reached the t

Today’s Market
Very strong... Yesterday only a 3% pullback to 78k and it continued upward...
The driving force still comes from ETF funds, with 78k on Friday and 82k yesterday. (Maybe there’s MicroStrategy again this week, they paused last week, and maybe they’ve started again this week)
Let’s keep watching today
Figure 1: From the order book... In recent days, around 80,000, a large collection of sell orders in spot and futures has been eaten up and executed under the push of funds...
Many people are selling off, while more funds are entering...
The range of futures sell orders al

Today’s Market - The 80k as Promised
If you've been watching my daily market updates over the past few weeks, you would notice that over the last month, this wave has been following a perfect symmetry...
Last Monday, I made a wish, and a 7% move was achieved, reaching the target zone of 80k (also hitting the whale’s target).
Finally, in the early hours of today, this wave completed the symmetry.. (Figure 1)
At the same time, 80600 is also nearly the previous low from November (yellow line)
It is also the 80k range I’ve been waiting in for over ten days..
The total delta is also sim

After the latest Codex /goal mode came out, I realized that GPT 5.5 is really crushing Claude Code’s Opus 4.7...
It actually ran for a full night, 7 hours straight, without any human involvement...
And it only used about 20% of the weekly limit of the 5x Pro...
The only things I gave it were a basic overview of my entry model’s core concepts... and a few examples.
Before, CC just helped me write a backtesting module, and then randomly came up with 4-5 sets of combinations...
This time, for Codex /goal, I gave it all the possible directions for parameter tuning and combinations, so it could fir

Today’s Market
Rested for a few days, back to work today...
On Monday, I wrote... If there’s a chance to kill the valuation during this week’s earnings report, that’s the best dip-buying opportunity...
From the results, this wave also retraced about 6% symmetrically... Repeating the previous pattern...
Now, driven by the sentiment in the US stock market, it continues to push higher... Can it replicate the previous 8% move? Challenge the 80k SFP?
If you have positions in the low region, I think it’s still worth trying to gamble here... But first, we need to get past 78k...
78k is a

今日盘面
多头忒强了... 昨天75k的低多 √
但是今天前高78.3k的SFP居然就下来500点.. 先撤
这地方虽然上面有不平衡色带（图1) ..
从订单簿上看也是的（图2）
80k下方继续嗷嗷多的现货压力.. 80k本身这里挂了400+个，是一个非常容易被抢跑的位置... （太多人等了）
合约也是一样，已经在当前位置上方到80k拉出了嗷嗷多的卖单...
就有种现货你买吧，买上来我就出货（或者空） 的姿态...
所以现在这个地方，从订单簿不平衡来看，是一个接近可以空的位置.. （币安 现货卖盘大于买盘2倍，全网1.5倍。 比较高置信的阈值区间是币安3-4倍，全网2-3倍）
但是要承担可能扛到80k的可能.. 从资金费率看，现在在场内空的人也很多了...
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所以，这个位置不是不能空，毕竟80k这里，链上共振的成本太多了.. 这里空需要激进的TP和窄损.. 这里不是一个可以放心宽损空的地方...
因为近期机构的研报观点，整个四月是BTC本轮熊市以来第一次全渠道级别的资金回流，ETF，稳定币，期货，微策略，4月目前合计净流入 126 亿美元。
空头现在在赌现在只有微策略一家在买，一旦有一周他们买盘跟不上就要掉头。 但是似乎现在资金面不止微策略溢价。
所以，现在逼空的条件也非常成熟...
历史上这四重资金面都转向的情况不多见，有可能成为这

Today’s Market
Before the US market opens, let’s update today’s situation again... The previous 77k level was near VWAP, and after taking profit at TP2, it moved up and protected its break-even.
Although here, that removable (taken out) secondary high at break-even has been swept through, there are signs of absorption in both spot and futures (see Chart 3).
But before US stocks open, it’s still a 55/45 situation here, so if it happens, we won’t worry about it.
Just peel off a scalp and keep waiting to squat for the next move...
(An example is yesterday: after taking out a big wave of

What happened here at 76.2k...
Whale fight?
A large wave of short orders totaling thousands of BTC was executed... Now there's a buy order hanging again at the same spot?
How much of a needle has the volume profile produced after being traded out?
I don't understand.
Confusing operation today √