Yongle'sNewExpedition

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Market follow-up, questions, and consultations. See the pinned content of my only followed account.
Yesterday, Ethereum generally maintained a range around 2300, initially staying above 2300.
As the 2300 level was broken, the market experienced a rapid decline to shake out weak hands, and after retracing to a low near 2203 during the session, it gradually stabilized and recovered.
During this process, bullish traders collectively released panic, and a large amount of floating capital was washed out.
Currently, it appears that over the weekend, the market will continue its previous oscillation trend.
This round of decline has already broken the recent upward structure.
From a person
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3803:
Target 2165?
Ethereum currently, on an hourly basis, has broken below the 2300 level, with the lowest reaching 2233. According to current indicators, the Bollinger Bands' three lines are slanting downward, and the middle band is firmly acting as resistance. The MACD indicator's bearish momentum continues to expand, showing a tendency to continue making new lows. Do not blindly chase the rally.
Ethereum: Short at 2245, target 2185. Defensive 30 points #BTC #ETH
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The most important support for Bitcoin's decline last night is the already stabilized upper region of 80,080-79,800.
This area has been tested nine times within ten days, repeatedly breaking above and falling below, but the price has never left this zone, indicating very active turnover and making it a relatively strong support and resistance zone.
The first target for the rally is 81,400-82,470, which has been tested three times and currently remains the highest untested short-term stop-loss point.
If the oscillation and turnover here are completed, the price will stay above 82,000, mak
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ETH early morning price retreated to around 2255, but then the market quickly recovered. Currently, on the hourly chart, the price has broken through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and has once again moved around 2300. According to indicators, the MACD bullish momentum continues to expand, and combined with liquidation data, the chip accumulation area above 2350 is evident. Therefore, in the short term, once a rebound begins, it will be quite strong, at least breaking through the chip area above 2350. After that, it will start accelerating to test the upper edge of the large triangle n
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Yesterday's announced CPI exceeded expectations, causing a decline in the US stock market, and the crypto market dropped even more sharply.
ETH share 2330 short position currently taking profit in the 70-point range! Patience in holding will eventually pay off!
Currently, the recent trend has been fluctuating narrowly between 2200-2450 for the past month.
Once it effectively breaks below this range, it will lead to a significant decline.
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Bitcoin's current key resistance level is around 83.2k yuan. At this point, it’s no longer just an ordinary resistance level; it’s more like the "graduation exam" for this round of rebound channel. Previously, BTC climbed slowly along the upward channel from the 60k yuan area after a sharp decline. Although there was some hesitation in the middle, the overall structure is quite healthy. The lows are continuously rising, and the highs are gradually moving upward, indicating that funds haven't truly exited but are repeatedly rotating within the consolidation. Especially recently, the price has b
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Sunday's pump is really rare. Ethereum directly liquidated the short positions around 2380 in the early morning. This move was entirely to clear the liquidity above and caused the price to rise. Now the price has returned to the support around 2320. I think the overall market is a classic trap to lure buyers, and the ultimate trend is definitely downward! Currently, if the four-hour chart breaks below the middle band support, this retracement will likely accelerate again.
Ethereum reference: Short at 2330, target 2260, stop 35 points #BTC #ETH
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AJ2025:
You can see 2174 directly
Ethereum small-level currently shows signs of bottoming out, with a W-shaped bottom pattern. Continuous consolidation around 2315 indicates that buying pressure is still quite strong. I personally think there will be a short-term rebound. The resistance line above is focused on the 2280–2400 range. In the short term, we should watch for a rebound trend.
Ethereum: long at 2330, target 2430, stop loss 41 points
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Last Friday, because news broke that Iran proactively requested peace talks, the market responded with positive expectations, so BTC's price surged again. As the price rose, traditional investors who had been silent before re-entered with net buying, and both BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK made four-figure purchases, suggesting that traditional investors' speculative enthusiasm has been sparked.
But from an omniscient perspective, although BTC's price remained around 80,000 on Monday, due to uncertainties between the US and Iran, US stocks declined somewhat, and traditional investors might also
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Looking at BTC from the liquidation chart, there are still many chips below, indicating that this decline is not over yet. Currently, on a small scale, there is a rebound demand, which is estimated to reach around 76,600. There is a batch of chips that will be liquidated again after being cleared here, so the small-scale rebound is weaker, around 76,600, and a stronger rebound could reach around 77,000. After that, it will continue to decline. Regarding the follow-up, attention should be paid to the support at 73,500. If it holds, there may be some consolidation and a potential head and should
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Ethereum experienced short-term volatility over the weekend, with a sharp rise yesterday breaking above 2400 briefly before quickly retracing. As I previously mentioned, the risk of a pullback is now present. Currently, the four-hour chart has broken below the triangle range. The next step is to see if this rebound can break back into the triangle range. If it cannot stay above 2320 during the day, then the short-term support level to watch is around 2280. If this level holds, there is still a chance for a further rebound. If it fails to stay above this level for an extended period, a downtren
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Liquidity over the weekend was limited. Ethereum rebounded again after finding support around 2398-2310. The 2306 long position that was set up in advance on Saturday has also gained about 60 points in the range. Currently, on the 1-hour chart, resistance above 2375 has significantly increased. Be cautious of a quick rise followed by a pullback. #BTC #ETH
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Currently, weekend market activity doesn't have much fluctuation, mainly digesting the 4-hour MACD indicator, with this wave of bearish volume being the main factor. In terms of pattern, it remains in short-term continuous oscillation. Whether it's BTC or ETH, the short-term prices have been oscillating near the lower boundary but haven't broken below, indicating that the support at smaller levels is still quite strong. Therefore, the predicted pattern remains valid. Once the indicators are fully digested, it will be time to start pushing upward to reach a new high.
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From a one-hour level perspective of Ethereum, after breaking below 2340, a bottom-range consolidation trend has begun, but it’s worth noting that the 2300 level has never actually been broken.
From the 48-hour liquidation view, there is some support around 2285, but not much, so the willingness to dip again and trap buyers is not very strong.
There are more support zones above, so the probability of a bullish liquidation is higher than a decline.
A further dip to trap and shake out traders is still possible, but whether it’s a dip to trap and shake out or continued consolidation, the mo
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Short-term distribution has begun. Now, all three cycles—short, medium, and long—are starting to distribute!
Below, we analyze the trend in detail through various indicators:
Trend Cost Band (Figure 1)
The short-term has just begun distributing, meaning the price has just reached near the midpoint average of the trend band, and was immediately pushed down to the lower edge. Currently holding the lower edge indicates that institutions intend to maintain this distribution trend, taking the opportunity to push the price higher for continued distribution.
However, market buying is very weak; a sma
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The most important macroeconomic event today is that Trump has TACOed as expected, and he said the pause will last until the peace agreement is signed, which also indicates that the U.S. has no intention of going all-in with Iran. However, shortly afterward, Trump also expressed that the ceasefire period is not unlimited, but only an additional 3 to 5 days, which I think is meaningless. At that point, TACO is still likely.
Although the risk markets have collectively rebounded, contrary to expectations, Brent and WTI are still rising mainly because reports say that even if the Strait of Hormuz
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On an hourly timeframe, Ethereum’s price has suddenly surged in volume and then substantially deviated from the upper band, which indicates a serious short-term divergence. Going forward, unless it enters extreme short-squeeze “high-value” conditions and becomes dull/neutralized at the high level, it is unlikely to continuously make a large push higher; from a technical perspective, there is an extremely strong need for a pullback. For intraday strategy, you can maintain a bearish outlook without breaking above 2680.
Ethereum: Short at 2364, target 2294, defense 40 points
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Today, I was still discussing with friends the trend of the fight between the United States and Iran. Although Trump publicly said he would not extend the ceasefire with Iran, everyone generally believes that the possibility of Trump TACO is very high. After all, continuing to take action is not beneficial for either the US or Iran, and Iran's tough stance is also likely to cause headaches for the US.
At the very least, Iran has definitely prepared to restart hostilities. If they do, it would negatively impact Trump’s upcoming midterm elections or his threats against Cuba. In fact, from the re
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Ethereum's short-term trend is under obvious pressure, with the area above 2340 being a strong resistance zone. Last night, it was tested twice but encountered resistance and fell back; the daily chart has shown signs of a top. Today’s rebound to the neckline of the double top structure has not achieved an effective breakthrough. This round of rebound is most likely a signal of main players offloading.
The 1-hour technical indicators are weakening in resonance, with the KDJ forming a death cross and continuing downward, and the MACD bullish momentum gradually shrinking. Additionally, a double
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Currently, market sentiment remains influenced by geopolitical conflicts. After Iran continued to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices on CME opened higher on Monday for WTI. By the close today, prices had risen to nearly $87. However, it was also reported today that although Iran is quite unhappy, they are still preparing to participate in the second round of negotiations with the United States on Tuesday. The main reason is still because Trump has imposed sanctions on Iranian ports.
When asked about the ceasefire cycle starting Thursday, Trump stated that there is only a very small chan
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