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For brothers holding short positions, be patient and wait; those with no positions should start buying in batches at the levels mentioned in yesterday’s alert. Right now, macro pressure is enormous, and the market’s pricing of expectations for tightening may have only just begun.
Next week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the press conference by the White House; if his remarks release further signals of tightening, risk assets will face a new round of pressure.
At this level, the short setup offers particularly strong cost-effectiveness.
Hold the positions patiently, keep risk cont

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has stayed above 5% for 12 straight trading days, touching 5.15%, the longest record since 2007.
This isn’t just a technical fluctuation—it’s a structural shift. The market is now pricing the interest-rate endpoint as “higher for longer.”
Today, a report from Danske Bank has broken through this window paper, but the real killing blow is on the oil end: the Houthis attacked Saudi oil tankers, with Brent nearing $100, directly bringing the odds of a rate hike at next week’s FOMC back onto the table.
During this period, I’ve been emphasizing macro pressure all alon

The market action from last night is over, and the chart is now fairly clear.
Last night, when US stocks opened, Bitcoin spiked up and then pulled back, and the long sentiment was also released to a certain extent.
We originally were still worried it would probe the resistance level above 67,000 again, but the spike up and pullback last night already showed the weakness in the current market—after all, macro-level pressure is there...
Oil prices are currently high, and the conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of stopping; although the chart hasn’t reacted, what’s coming will co

Bitcoin rebounds to 67,000; my short positions were stopped out, but my view remains unchanged.
In this rebound, which started from the early-month low of $58,000, Bitcoin climbed steadily and even touched above $67,000. It reignited market excitement with the “bull run returning fast” frenzy.
Looking back at the drivers behind this rally, the logic chain is actually quite clear:
Late June: Market expectations for cooling inflation quietly revived risk appetite
Then, a surprise upside for Non-Farm Payrolls: weaker employment pushed out rate-hike expectations, giving the crypto market i

Bitcoin’s momentum over the past two days really has been strong. The short-term long structure has come back again, and our 65,000 short position was also stopped out.
This time, the escalation of the geopolitical conflict is reflected in the market as the bears being relatively weak. Even though fighting is raging, the price action doesn’t move at all—instead, it triggers a wave of a big pull higher. That’s because Iran issued a ceasefire statement yesterday for 10 days.
From a short-term perspective, Bitcoin really does still have the potential to surge upward, but you absolutely must not i

In the morning, a post emphasized continuing to short around 65,000; right after it was said, the chart obliged and dropped—down to around 63,800 during the day.
But at night, news came out of an Iran–US ceasefire. Bitcoin immediately surged and even tapped the 65,000 mark again.
Many people got excited: Has the bad news been fully priced in? Will there be a reversal?
What I want to say is that the 10-day ceasefire is not the end of the war. Oil prices are still high, and the fuse on the geopolitical powder keg hasn’t been removed.
Today’s rally is just a message-driven emotion pulse, not a tr

A new week is here—good morning, fellow traders.
The situation between the U.S. and Iran flared up again over the weekend. Brent crude promptly broke through the $90 mark. The geopolitical flames are burning, but interestingly, the crypto market seems like it’s separated by a heat shield: Bitcoin isn’t dropping—it’s rising instead, steadily rebounding to $65,000.
Someone asked: Has the bad news already been fully digested? Should I be chasing longs now?
My answer is still clear: the logic behind a bearish medium-term view has never changed.
Looking back at what I did last week, when Bitcoin wa

$BTC Bitcoin has pulled back as expected, and the market is validating my view.
The short-selling thesis I’ve been emphasizing over the past few days is playing out; there are no signs the market is set to continue strengthening. As of now, the near-term positive impact from the inflation data has already been fully digested, risk appetite has declined, and Bitcoin and Ethereum have both fallen noticeably. The short setup around the 65,000 area that I highlighted these past few days has already created some limited room.
Next, the view remains unchanged: there is a fairly high chance that the

Last night, Bitcoin surged to around 65,500 and then began to fall back as the upward momentum started to weaken.
In the past few days, I’ve also kept emphasizing my bearish view in the live room and in my posts, reminding everyone that near above 65,000 you can try entering shorts in batches.
Recently, this round of market moves has been driven by the recently released June CPI data. Bitcoin has gained about 3,000 USD in the near term, while Ethereum is up about 150 USD.
Ahead of and around the release of this CPI, I’ve been reminding everyone of the following: last month, the U.S. and Iran s

$BTC Bitcoin is chopping high around 65,000—bullish or bearish?
I think at this level it’s worth continuing to bet on the short side. After the CPI, the near-term upside can be said to be already played out.
In the Middle East, the situation has suddenly changed recently, and although it hasn’t caused a real impact on the chart, oil prices have already rebounded to a high level. Also, at the moment the US and Iran don’t seem to be planning to stop. So the inflation data that will be released next month definitely won’t look good.
If inflation keeps ticking up again, the September rate hike wi

Let’s talk about the current thinking:
Even though tonight’s CPI came in an extreme surprise to the downside, the market action and overall expectations haven’t deviated too much.
As I mentioned earlier: there was some expectation that inflation would cool in June. Even if the data came in below expectations, the rebound wouldn’t be that exaggerated.
This time, if we had this kind of data in the past, it would have been an extremely bullish catalyst, but today the market reaction is fairly average.
Moreover, inflation pressure is still very high. On top of that, geopolitical risks have warmed

The market is still moving within expectations. I speculated yesterday morning that it would likely see a decent pullback, and the chart has already confirmed that. Bitcoin saw a low pullback around 61,800 near 64,000➡️➡️➡️.
A key variable comes tonight—June CPI data is about to be released, and the suspense is particularly high.
First, some background: The 60-day ceasefire understanding memorandum between the U.S. and Iran was signed in June, which led to a sharp drop in international oil prices, and the market broadly expects inflation to cool significantly.
But recently, the Middle East sit

Got it right again—right after I just said that Bitcoin would dump, it came. If this keeps up, I guess this month’s returns won’t be lower than last month.
Last month, starting from the beginning of the month, I kept emphasizing shorting Bitcoin at 73,000, with the target set at 60,000—and it hit the mark.
Then at 59,800, I switched to going long on a dip for a quick bottom—got a bounce up, eating the move.
After that, when it reached 67,000, I continued to emphasize shorting, with a target of 58,000—and again, the target was reached!
This month, starting at the beginning of the month, I empha

Last week, Bitcoin tried three times to probe the $65,000 resistance level, but to no avail—the rally has already started to look weak.
It’s likely that over the next two days, unless some sudden positive catalyst emerges, we should see a solid pullback.
In addition, the June CPI data that we’ve been watching closely is right around the corner. After the U.S. and Iran signed a 60-day ceasefire memorandum of understanding, international oil prices quickly gave back the risk premium. The market generally expects this month’s data to slow down somewhat. That’s also why, on this logic, we bought t

Over the weekend, the US-Iran situation continued to heat up, oil prices rallied again, but it had limited impact on the crypto market. In fact, not many people are trading based on expectations for the development of the US-Iran situation.
But let me put a but on it: the inflation stickiness caused by the shift in the oil price center will, sooner or later, flow into the pricing of risk assets—only the transmission lag is longer than most people expect. The market did not react immediately doesn’t mean it can be ignored.
Earlier, we bottomed out and bought BTC at 58,000, and ultimately took p