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A wonderful July in July—geopolitics and the US Federal Reserve are locked in a game of tug-of-war, and BTC starts to struggle!
For now, discussions about future market possibilities are still centered on changes in the geopolitical situation and the Fed’s interest-rate policy inclinations.
The Middle East situation has already become a powder keg. The US has intensified attacks on Langzi, and the Strait of Hormuz has been completely blocked. Oil prices continue to rise, keeping US inflation rates stubbornly high. On the other hand, whether it’s Tuesday’s CPI data or Wednesday’s PPI data, both

CPI comes in showing easing inflation, Fed rate-hike expectations cool down, BTC rebounds!
This time, the U.S. CPI data has been released, bringing a wave of good news to the crypto market. The inflation data is clearly lower, and market expectations for the Fed’s subsequent rate hikes have cooled down across the board. BTC, too, followed suit and saw a rebound and recovery. The big one surged to above 65,000, and the second one is approaching the 1,900 area.
This rebound has been quite strong. In just one day, the big one rallied by 3,000 points, and the sentiment to go long in the market has

Major geopolitical news broke over the weekend, and the market directly gapped and moved into volatility at the open.
On July 12 in Iran local time, the U.S. Central Command, following instructions from the Trump administration, carried out this week’s third round of military strikes against Iran. The main airstrikes targeted Iran’s air-defense missile positions, Revolutionary Guard fast-boat bases, and military facilities along the southern coastline, precisely hitting multiple key military targets. In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy made a tough countermeasure at arou

U.S.-Iran Relations Shift Again, BTC Determines Strength in European Session
U.S.-Iran relations have shifted again, with geopolitical conflicts affecting the market and disrupting short-term market rhythms.
Today is Wednesday, with a focus on the evening's release of the Federal Reserve's June monetary policy meeting minutes.
The market is watching closely: what the Fed thinks about the economy and inflation going forward, and any forward guidance on rate cuts or hikes—these will directly impact BTC's short-term trend.
Yesterday, we entered long positions at 625-628 as planned. After the U.S.

BTC rose as expected, with a temporary short-term pullback.
Daily chart showing 6 consecutive bullish candles. Can it continue today?
BTC rose to around 647 early this morning and then started to pull back. According to our expectation, it exited completely at 644. As early as two days ago when the daily chart showed 3 consecutive bullish candles, I said that if it operates above 622, then it will continue to move strongly upward. In the evening, we went long at the current price around 618 targeting 644. Yesterday, before the market opened, the short-lived bearish correction due to BTC sellin

Market confidence is recovering in July, and the BTC uptrend is still continuing!
The daily structure strongly breaks out of 5 consecutive bullish candles—are we waiting for another bullish candle today?
BTC’s 1-hour bullish momentum is strong. BTC’s 1-hour moving averages form a golden cross, with a bullish alignment spreading upward. As for BTC’s pullback, it still mainly favors going long on dips.
As long as BTC’s pullback does not break 623, BTC on the 1-hour timeframe will continue to maintain a range-bound uptrend. If BTC breaks through and holds above 630, the upside space for BTC longs

The timing is perfectly aligned—non-farm payrolls help BTC take off!
The July US non-farm payroll data has been released, and the results fully match my expectations!
The non-farm payroll data trend for May and June—this is the watershed moment during the US-Canada-Mexico World Cup period. June non-farm payrolls were definitely going to be revised cold. Now that the results are out, they confirm my judgment! June non-farm payroll data came in far below expectations, with only 57k new jobs added, well below the market forecast of 110k. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.
  This we

BTC bulls are preparing to launch a counterattack—the outcome hinges on the non-farm payrolls data!
The ADP data released yesterday showed that in June, employment only increased by 98k jobs, which is much lower than the market expectation of 118k, and the overall picture of the data was weak. Coupled with Fed Waller’s remarks, inflation pressures and market risks have eased somewhat in recent weeks, directly causing U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar to move down in sync, and BTC—having been subdued for a long time—has accordingly received a boost. So this morning, it surged straight up

This week ushers in a window for change, with the monthly closing approaching.
Now I really don't dare to simply look at market news; truth and falsehood are mixed, too easy to be misled. On Monday, the US side loudly claimed that the delegation was ready and would hold talks with Iran in Doha on the 30th, likely to finalize details on the Strait of Hormuz. But today, Iran directly denied it, clearly stating that it will not hold any level of negotiations with the US.
BTC operation suggestion: long at 585-589, defense at 57800, target 602, break to 61000-61600-62600#0成本拿2股SK海力士

Interest rate hike expectations fully impact the market!
The US-Iran ceasefire agreement continues to be implemented, geopolitical risk premiums continue to fade, coupled with rising hawkish rhetoric from the Fed, expectations of rate hikes within the year are increasing, the US dollar and Treasury yields are strengthening simultaneously, continuously suppressing bullish forces in crypto prices.
Yesterday, BTC continued to decline, breaking through the 60k mark in a bearish trend, hitting a low around 59,000 before starting to rebound. Now, the next step is to place long orders on pullbacks, w

BTC weak oscillation grinding, patiently waiting for a signal of strength and weakness change
Such a drop? Did it violate some news? Or did something unexpected happen in the market?
Today’s US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and the entire crypto market all plunged. Yesterday, I publicly planned to go long at 636-639 and look towards 657, with a high of 656. Overall, all positions were closed out, and it was publicly stated that going short above 65 could be done. We entered short around 654, successfully switching between long and short positions in time. This afternoon, BTC directly dum

Are you coming?
It's the lowest pullback, the most precise position
Bitcoin hasn't gained volume yet
The lowest is 638, we're fine with 639 to buy more
Bought in, simply bought in
Don't think about the pattern during range oscillation. #特朗普Meme币涨7.9%

U.S.-Iran talks encounter twists and turns, with Bitcoin opportunities and risks coexist!
The Dragon Boat Festival holiday has ended, and the market has returned to normal.
Over the weekend, U.S.-Iran talks experienced ups and downs. The U.S. and Lebanon delegations officially started peace negotiations in Switzerland on Sunday, but there were unexpected developments during the process. Trump suddenly issued tough threats, stating that if Hezbollah continues to attack Israel, the U.S. will directly launch military strikes.
 
Desperate times call for desperate measures. After hitting a bottom,

Staying calm in the face of change, what impact will Wosh, the "Silent Gold," have on the coin price?
Brothers, don’t rush. For Wosh’s first appearance, I can only say "Silence is Gold," it’s incredible.
Previously, the entire market was waiting for Wosh’s statement, wanting to see how he would lead the US economy out of trouble, how he would maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve, and how he would prove he is resolutely not serving political interests. As a result, when the new chairman took office, he didn’t address any of these topics — the more you focus on something, the less he

June 17 Evening Focus: Waller's First Appearance in the Early Morning
BTC continues to fluctuate, with bulls and bears at a standstill. This sideways market is just a prelude to Fed Chair Waller's debut.
The short-term positive sentiment brought by the Iran deal is pushing BTC upward, becoming the fuse for this round of rally, and oil prices will take several months to fully return to normal supply. Market inflation pressures also won't disappear overnight.
Next, the market's rise and fall and volatility will all depend on the speech style and policy signals of the new Fed Chair. This will be

Waiting for the interest rate decision, after the rise, adjustments are expected
The geopolitical situation has basically been settled, Trump has made a statement, and Iran and the U.S. have signed a memorandum of understanding, aiming to end the conflict related to朗子, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the official signing ceremony scheduled in Geneva within the next few days, followed by 60 days of technical negotiations.
Next, focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market impact from the speech by the new chairman, Powell.
Yesterday saw a volatile upward trend, with a

Trump stages “the boy who cried wolf.” The US cancels its comprehensive strikes on Iran. BTC and the small yellow fish take off immediately.
Raging at those who told you to short the small yellow fish at 4100—just block them directly. If the big trend is 42-43, and it’s not a case of shorting, then why would you short at 41?
The gold below 4100 has an excellent cost-performance ratio. Everyone must enter in batches to lay out long positions. I said this repeatedly yesterday—once you enter, hold tight. The bulls have already fully kicked off. Just wait for the bigger upside room above.
  Over t

BTC continues to be under pressure and declines further, watch for the impact of tonight's CPI data
The market is now completely chaotic, with multiple pieces of news intertwined, making it very difficult to give precise and effective judgments. On one side, the US and Iran are pushing forward peace negotiations; on the other, regional military frictions continue one after another; meanwhile, Trump is calling for a ceasefire and peace, yet also launching targeted retaliatory strikes. Additionally, the Fed's rate hike expectations keep rising, strengthening the dollar, while BTC and gold are bo

Waiting for a market catalyst, BTC is about to see a strong shift between strength and weakness!
Currently, the crypto market is in a typical state of tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with price action stuck in indecision.
 The bulls can rely on two things for now: first, the uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical situation—positive developments could come at any time to lift prices; second, expectations for subsequent Federal Reserve rate hikes are cooling, leaving plenty of room for a rebound and price correction.
  And the bears are also well-prepared: mainly because the U.S. econom

Market bearish factors piling up, where will Bitcoin's 60,000 level go?
Recently, various bearish factors in the market have emerged one after another, and many friends are asking, Bitcoin is now stuck around 62,000, what exactly should we do, and what is the future trend?
The US added 172k non-farm jobs in May, far exceeding the market expectation of 85k. The data can be said to be significantly above expectations. More importantly, the non-farm data for April was also significantly revised upward, from the originally announced 115k to 179k. With employment data strengthening sharply for two