ZhangSanfengWatchingTheMarket

Thursday's interest rate decision is approaching, and the market is about to enter a high-volatility phase.
At such critical junctures, it's not luck that counts,
but the ability to plan ahead.
Waiting until the trend unfolds before chasing,
most of the time will only lead to being passive.
This time, a limited number of spots are open, with a threshold of 5000U.
There is only one requirement: strong execution.
Enter the market decisively when it's time,
exit promptly when it's time to leave.
My approach has always been very clear:
First, control the risk,
first ensure I

If you can't get a signal, you shouldn't enter the market.
Recently, many people have private messaged me asking: "Can I rush now?" "Can you guide me?"
My only answer is: learn to wait first.
The most expensive tuition in trading is often paid by those who get "itchy."
Watching the candlestick move and can't sit still, seeing others share their wins and wanting to follow the trend—this is instinct, but trading requires going against instinct.
After so long in the crypto world, the most important lesson I've learned is:
When both hands leave the keyboard and you watch the market cal

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has just concluded its monetary policy meeting. Although the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 0.75%, Ueda Kazuo's remarks at the press conference were more "hawkish" than expected. He explicitly stated that as long as the economic trajectory remains on track, rate hikes will continue, targeting a neutral rate of 1.0%.
For the cryptocurrency market, this is not just a rate number but a major liquidity migration.
1. Core Killer Move: The Endgame of Arbitrage Trading
The yen has long been a source of cheap capital worldwide. Investors borrow yen at nearly zer

April 28th: The “big pancake” rebound idea is only a correction—its high-altitude rhythm remains unchanged
In the early morning, the price probed down to the 76,400 support level and then stabilized. It was followed by a weak rebound to around 77,400, maintaining a tight sideways range. This move clearly carries the technical characteristics of a bottoming repair and recovery, not a reversal.
4-hour cycle: The support below has been largely consumed by repeated tests in the prior period. The current rebound momentum is limited; overall, the rhythm is still pressured by the bears.
The current

Federal Reserve Rate Decision Coming Soon
The most focused event in the market this week will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announced early Thursday, along with an important speech by Powell.
Currently, the market widely expects the Fed to likely keep interest rates unchanged for the time being, with no immediate plans to raise or cut rates. Therefore, the outcome of the rate decision itself carries limited suspense; the key factor influencing short-term market trends and volatility lies in the policy signals conveyed in Powell's speech.
The current geopolitical situation con

The intra-day Bitcoin first surged higher and then pulled back, forming a typical surge and retracement pattern, with the overall rhythm showing a rapid rise followed by a synchronized correction. The price formed a short-term double top around 79,500, encountering resistance on the upside and then oscillating and falling back, but overall the intra-day trend remains bullish and no trend weakening has occurred.
Although there is a correction in the short term, the overall bullish structure has not been broken, and the main trend still leans strong.
The 79,500 level has formed a short-term do

Bitcoin has just experienced a rapid decline, dropping from 79,455 directly down to 77,700.
This kind of sharp drop is the easiest to throw off your rhythm—fearing a rally when shorting, fearing further drops when bottom-fishing, ending up getting hit from both sides.
Trading doesn't have to be so exhausting—first look at the trend, then signals, set proper stop-losses, control position sizes, and leave the rest to the market.
Market analysis
2-hour timeframe
BTC encountered resistance at 79,455 and pulled back, currently breaking below the short-term moving average, disrupting the b

Short positions were fulfilled as expected, and this wave of decline mostly aligned with the morning judgment.
The market surged in the morning but struggled to break above the key resistance level, with volume unable to keep up. After a continuous four-hour rally, clear signs of fatigue appeared. Multiple attempts to test the high were quickly pushed back, indicating persistent selling pressure above.
In the afternoon, the market started to weaken, and the bears gained momentum, causing the price to fall steadily, ultimately confirming the expected pullback pattern. The early warning to be ca

After this rally, Bitcoin (“the big pie”) has been clearly stuck once it reached the upper resistance zone.
On the 4-hour timeframe, we’re seeing continuous bullish candles pushing higher, but the pace of the advance is getting slower and momentum is starting to fade. At the same time, the Bollinger Bands are gradually tightening, suggesting the market is building up for the next directional choice.
From what we can see on the chart, it’s very clear:
Every time price probes upward, it gets quickly pushed back down. There’s heavier sell pressure around 79,500, and sell orders above are pressing

Monday Morning Session | BTC Trading Strategy
The current market shows a breakout upward + high-level consolidation pattern, with bullish momentum still being released, but there is a short-term need for a pullback confirmation. The pace is not urgent; focus on waiting for signals at key levels.
Key ranges:
* Watch above: 79,000–80,000
→ If facing significant resistance, consider a pullback
→ If volume increases and stabilizes, the upward potential may further open
* Watch below: 77,500–70,000
→ Valid support allows for phased low-buy participation in rebounds
→ If broken downw

The recent market situation, to put it simply, is one word: grinding.
Prices are moving sideways, seemingly unchanged,
but small funds have already been "washed" back and forth into chaos;
in contrast, large funds have hardly withdrawn, showing a very steady attitude.
On the surface, there's a balance between bulls and bears,
but a closer look reveals—bears seem to be defending rather than actively attacking.
There's also a key detail:
The 3-day average cost is slowly rising, indicating the bottom is gradually moving up, and the chip structure is tightening.
This kind of market won't stay side

BTC experienced a rapid surge during midday, with the price actively advancing, and short-term sentiment clearly warming.
Currently, the pace of the rally seems somewhat aggressive, mainly driven by short covering and emotional factors. Although trading volume has increased, its sustainability still needs to be observed. The area near the previous high shows signs of selling pressure gradually emerging.
Key levels
Watch above: 80,000 (strong resistance, confirmation needed for a breakout)
Support below: 76,000–75,000 (retracement defense zone)
This move appears more like testing the upper resi

April 26, Sunday | Weekend continues to fluctuate, focusing on low buy-ins and high sell-offs at key points
Today remains the same old rhythm, no volume on the weekend, market continues to grind.
BTC is currently around 77,371, with an intraday high of 77,878 and a low of 77,218, the range isn't large, indicating the market is still mainly oscillating, no signs of a sustained trend yet.
The thinking today is very simple:
Watch the resistance at 77,800-78,000 above,
Support at 77,200-77,000 below.
If the range isn't broken, don't expect a one-sided move, continue to trade within the oscillation

Breaking News | $344 Million USDT Frozen, On-Chain Supervision Upgraded Again
A piece of news released in the early hours has drawn market attention: the U.S. has requested Tether to freeze approximately 344 million USDT related to Iran.
This isn’t just a single-point incident—it also sends a clear signal: the ability to track and freeze on-chain funds has entered a practical, real-world stage.
Core Insights:
1. The “centralization risk” of stablecoins has been amplified again
USDT is still fundamentally issued and managed by a centralized entity. Once an address is identified as high-risk

Being steady is far more important than running fast.
Currently, Bitcoin remains in a high-range consolidation, with the pace clearly slowing down. This kind of market is most prone to "quick in and out, repeatedly harvested." Instead of acting blindly, it's better to wait for key levels to give answers.
Key trigger levels:
* Break above confirmation: 78,000 (volume confirmed steady, can then look towards 80,000)
* Break below confirmation: 75,000 (if broken, the structure weakens, watch for a retest around 72,000)
If the range is not broken, try to minimize trades; once broken, consider follo

BTC short-term is leaning towards a choppy-to-consolidation pattern with a slight bullish bias, but there is clear resistance above 78,000. First, look for a rally that pulls back, then decide whether to continue pushing higher.
Several key signals are quite clear:
Current price is around 77,800, basically hugging the BOLL middle band at 77,868.4
This indicates the current price is in a neutral-to-slightly bullish position; the bears haven’t broken through, and the bulls also haven’t truly confirmed a breakout.
The upper band at 78,432.9 is the first short-term resistance
If the price can’

ETH's current rhythm is actually very clear: it's not weak, it's grinding, it's building up power.
Yesterday's price mostly hovered around the 2280–2340 range,
appearing to be oscillating, but in reality, each dip was quickly bought back up,
what does this indicate? It shows that support below is solid, bullish funds haven't left, but are quietly accumulating and preparing.
There's another point I pay close attention to:
During this period, Ethereum hasn't been making new highs in sync with Bitcoin,
emotionally, it's being held down.
But often, the assets that haven't shown early strength are

No one is born standing at the top,
and every dazzling person who comes later once clawed their way up step by step from the bottom.
If Liu Bei were satisfied with the status quo, he might only be someone who sells straw sandals;
if Liu Bang chose an ordinary life, he might only be an unknown nobody;
if Zhu Yuanzhang accepted his fate, he might be stuck in the bottom tier forever;
if Jack Ma didn’t go and try, he might always have been just a regular teacher.
Fate will never change just because you wait,
but it can be rewritten by setting out—again and again—on your own initiative.
T

Recently, it has become noticeably clear that the impact of news on the cryptocurrency price is no longer as intense as before.
The phase where fluctuations were mainly driven by emotions may be gradually passing.
Next, the market should pay more attention to the progress of ceasefire negotiations, the direction of oil prices, and expectations of interest rate cuts.
Because what truly influences BTC's next move is no longer just the news itself, but whether these variables will continue to change the market's valuation of risk assets.
Recent public market analyses also generally regard