PCE is out!
One-sentence summary: In terms of the rate cut path, it is a short-term positive (more of a sentiment boost than actual positive), while it continues to suppress rate cuts in the long term.
All data in the chart combined is generally strong, with GDP and monthly personal spending both running hot.
Maintain a bullish view on the dollar index and bearish view on non-dollar currencies.
Not much more to say—this is what it is, and that's the situation.
Personal opinion, for reference only! Not investment advice. #PCE数据

USIDX-0.14%

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GasUnderTheMoonlight:

Sentiment bullish ≠ wallet bullish, USD bulls are grinning.

XiuHu_charts

12h ago

He is not contradicting himself; they are two different time dimensions!
On June 20, subjectively calming the market; on June 25, objectively pointing out macro risks. 🙂
This bastard, for better or worse, is a big shot, and his opinion changed within just 5 days. #美光财报超预期盘后大涨

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FrenBurner:

After pacifying, harvest a wave; after hinting, harvest another wave. Playing both sides is the real skill.

XiuHu_charts

06-23 04:14

Last Thursday, I also posted that the record inflow into U.S. stocks was investors rushing ahead, and sure enough, it declined yesterday!
It seems that choosing to rest yesterday was the right decision; when you don't understand something, it's better to observe more. #SpaceX暴跌16%市值蒸发4000亿

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XiuHu_charts2026-06-19 10:02:37

Record-breaking weekly capital inflows are most likely a head start!
To prepare for quarter-end portfolio rebalancing and performance payouts, adjust the investment structure. #沃什首秀美联储利率不变

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BetaParanoiac:

I saw Thursday's post; the prediction was accurate.

XiuHu_charts

06-22 05:23

I'm having a hard time understanding the current market; it's too confusing! I'm choosing to take a break for now.
According to the agreements from the US-Iran-Switzerland negotiations, the implementation should boost risk market sentiment, but in reality, oil prices have fallen—specifically the gains from a couple of days ago. Gold and other negatively correlated assets haven't shown a good upward move either; they're still sluggish.
This reflects that the sentiment boost isn't very strong; it only shows a short-term weak rebound!
By Thursday this week, there seems to be little macroeco

XAUUSD0.84%

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GateUser-c25a653c:

The remarks after Warsh's debut are worth savoring; the new chairman's wording habits have not yet been fully priced in by the market.

XiuHu_charts

06-21 05:03

The current market trend is largely that if the Switzerland negotiations succeed, there will be a breakout and surge; if they fail, it will continue to oscillate and adjust.
Yesterday, I stayed up late reading news and remembered one of Trump's statements from the day: The Strait of Hormuz will be free for passage during the 60-day ceasefire period!
📌 If an agreement is not reached, even if the Strait of Hormuz charges a fee, it will be collected by the U.S. side.
U.S.-Iran relations have gone from initially wanting to defeat Iran and overthrow its regime, to verbal threats, and now to

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NodeUnderTheAurora:

A 60-day free pass is a sweet deal; the real meal is the long-term game ahead. Shipping stocks need to be closely watched.

XiuHu_charts

06-19 13:16

Several news updates are changing throughout the day, and most people's emotions are also being affected!
Ceasefire or not, I still stick to my strategy, and at worst, take a loss. #万斯延迟美伊瑞士会谈

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ColdLightNftCabinet:

Ceasefire negotiations keep bouncing back and forth—short-term traders have it too tough. Respect to people who can hold steady.

XiuHu_charts

06-19 10:02

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YieldYeti:

The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady as the market has already factored in expectations in advance—a typical case of buying the rumor and selling the fact.

XiuHu_charts

06-19 05:41

Due to the Dragon Boat Festival,
The US-Iran negotiations have been canceled!😅#美伊14点备忘录曝光

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LimeMulti-Signature:

Middle East situation: Can't compete with China's holidays

XiuHu_charts

06-18 05:23

Yesterday's Waller debut was quite hawkish!
Waller is actually pretty impressive; he knows well that there are serious disagreements within the Federal Reserve, so his debut directly announced two things.
1: Create working groups to soften disagreements
2: No more forward guidance in the future; Federal Reserve policies will basically be a blind box from now on.
Trump was quite interesting yesterday; during Waller's speech, he said: "Regarding the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, this may happen."
This is really supporting Waller, as Waller himself is hawkish, and Tru

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BluePeonyMinerDream:

The Federal Reserve turns into a blind box, market volatility is about to take off

XiuHu_charts

06-17 08:50

An increase is a positive enjoyment that adds icing on the cake; buying can further stimulate the release of dopamine because buying equals expecting a rise. The anticipation makes people very excited, which is positive expectation.
Therefore, in this overwhelmingly positive mindset shared by most people, shorting during a decline becomes a daring act of snatching food from a tiger’s mouth!
Since the existence of the secondary market, the concept instilled in people has been buying, rising, and making money.
The most primitive basic education worldwide is to buy low and sell high!
Grou

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CapitalFlowInATeacup:

The four-character phrase “snatching food from the tiger’s mouth” is spot-on; most people would rather get stuck in their positions than admit a downward trend.

XiuHu_charts

06-17 02:47

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision has basically been priced in!
So, what are everyone's expectations for Wosh's debut speech🙂‍↔️#美联储利率决议

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FeeMarketMonk:

Pricing completion doesn't mean there are no fluctuations; speech is the actual volatility switch.

XiuHu_charts

06-16 07:47

The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Stimulates Market Sentiment to Warm Up.
This Thursday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Waller's first appearance since taking office, is the most critical test of the credibility of this agreement.
Trump's approval rating has been declining recently, and the easing with Iran mainly aims to attract voters and boost public opinion.
But Israel doesn't buy into this; whether it's an agreement or not, the strikes will continue, and the hidden dangers in the Middle East haven't been fully eliminated.
Whether the Strait of Hormuz can be na

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ExitLiqNow:

Let's wait until Friday to sign. Right now, it's all about expectation management; large funds won't be betting heavily at this time.

XiuHu_charts

06-14 07:24

On one side, crude oil inventories are running low, and on the other side, there is active promotion of signing the memorandum📝!
It's a gamble. Do you think the Strait of Hormuz will open or not?#原油

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GateUser-e62ee1b0:

Stock shortage + geopolitical tension, this combination feels all too familiar

XiuHu_charts

06-11 12:39

Still seeing the US dollar index again, I’ve expressed my USD outlook several times this year!
Still believe it will break through 105. #美伊冲突升级

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TheWindOnTheBridgeIsTooStrong.:

Americans' own data is also average; how far can the dollar, purely supported by geopolitics, go?

XiuHu_charts

06-11 12:00

Bitcoin and Ethereum are once again at a reckless stage!
Currently, the technical indicators below the 4-hour level all signal a bullish trend, but external risks still indicate the presence of negative factors, making it very complicated and difficult to take action.
Therefore, now opening a position can only mean ignoring everything, with a hard stop-loss to go all-in on one side. If based on comprehensive analysis, it's simply impossible to trade.
It's entirely a situation where the technicals are bullish, but the news sentiment is bearish 😅. #美国5月CPI创三年新高

BTC-0.12%

ETH-0.47%

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GateUser-9335da8b:

Technical analysis is sometimes just used to deceive.

XiuHu_charts

06-11 06:05

Do you find these easy to use?
I just can't use these; using them feels very tiring and awkward. #我的Gate交易时刻

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PerpMoodSwing:

With a few more trades, muscle memory develops.

XiuHu_charts

06-10 12:49

This is what makes me unable to argue with myself, the part that feels uncomfortable!
Always feel like something's wrong, but I can't quite put my finger on it.
The money is for you to earn, I’ll wait and see. #CPI

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L2ArbitrageYoungster:

I understand this feeling; intuition is sometimes more accurate than data.

XiuHu_charts

06-10 12:39

Core annual rate 2.9, with a very small upward margin!
Month-on-month inflation has cooled significantly, meaning the slight increase in the core monthly and annual rates is overshadowed by the cooling of the monthly rate.
There are both negatives and positives; overall, there are more positives. I have some doubts about a false prosperity!
I choose to take a break selectively, not to continue, as I can't quite overcome my own mindset. #CPI

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XiuHu_charts2026-06-10 05:50:01

The CPI data released in the evening seems to have no more room for doubt; can its value go below 3.8? Probably not!
Unless the released value is below 3.8, otherwise it's considered bearish!
Since February, the curve has been rising continuously, hitting new highs again and again.
This probably doesn't need much explanation; the core issue remains the same—it's driven up by the war!
If you insist on using it to make a point, then its only current significance is that it will add fuel to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and it will also cast a shadow over Waller's debut, making the Fed in the Waller era a rollercoaster of highs and lows—no rate cuts, and rate hikes are difficult. #CPI