SoccerSmallProbabilityAnalysis

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Buy at the current price, and in about a month, it will continue to be discussed; I feel it will rise to 95, sell.

#预测世界杯法国VS伊拉克 The real probability is completely different from the probability we imagine. If something has a 90% chance of being true, then it has a 10% chance of being false. But think about it: if it’s 95% true, then it’s 5% false.
When a goal is scored, there’s a chance of it going in—something like 70%–80%—and there’s a chance of it not going in—something like 10%–20%. In 90 minutes, suppose a total of five goals are scored: three by France, and at least one by Iraq.
In the first 20 minutes, there are several possibilities:
1) Neither side scores.
2) France scores one goal.
3) Iraq scor

#预测世界杯法国VS伊拉克 The match ends in a 0-0 draw. Mindlessly buy or choose no?
Buying blindly below 90% is not cost-effective; exceeding 90% isn't worthwhile either.
Many people will take the opportunity to sell because their costs might be around 80.

#预测世界杯法国VS伊拉克 The current score I see is that France has an overwhelming advantage of 97% over 3%, but as soon as Iraq moves from 3% to 4%, that's a one-third increase, so it's completely underestimated now. I think around 5% is more reasonable, so it's totally undervalued. Because all you need is to keep betting, and if no goals are scored in ten minutes, the probability will rise sharply. So I estimate that defending in the first 20 minutes can hold up. Since the game lasts 90 minutes, adding two-ninths, multiplying 3% by that, equals 4% to 5%. Selling at 4.5% can earn 50% plus 1.8% in fees

Ethereum, buy long at 1730, 1% with 5x leverage, see it reach 1750 without stopping loss, drop ten points and buy again with 10% at 10x leverage, drop another ten points, 1% with 20x leverage, just buy like that #我的Gate交易时刻 $ETH

Ethereum retracement continues to go long; around the 1755 retracement, continue going long. I saw the 妖797 on the internet. No leverage—just spot trading. If it drops, add as it drops; the more it falls, the more you add. And there’s one last downside-protection message: U.S. negotiations, so the president’s #我的Gate交易时刻 $ETH .

Ethereum is breaking out of its trend, aiming for 1785. Enter now. Daily negotiations have yielded results. Israel's ceasefire negotiations are ongoing. The direction is clear now. Buy now $ETH ‌#我的Gate交易时刻

If you believe in Bitcoin's scarcity properties, then you should also believe in gold, and you should also believe in the one-to-one contract coin of gold that most people trust $XAUT .
Regarding this coin, there is a very good investment strategy recently: buy and hold, allocate 10% of your position, earn annualized returns, 16% annual interest, and wait until you think enough positive news has been released before selling it.
Don't buy contracts for this because its volatility is not suitable for contracts; it follows gold, and gold itself is influenced by geopolitical factors, etc.
It

#我的Gate交易时刻 My trading strategy is to divide my money into 100 parts, trade contracts with 100x leverage, buy 1% of my funds each time, and buy again every time it drops by 1%. If I buy correctly, I sell 75%, and if I buy incorrectly, I buy another 1%. If I make 30 consecutive wrong trades, I will be liquidated, but this probability only occurs in a unidirectional market. This is your analysis. Everything goes wrong in certain real-world situations, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US-Iran negotiations, or US interest rate cuts. With this strategy, are you aware of the overall direction?

https://gate.onelink.me/Hls0/post?post_id=21976776&tim=ARAbClhcBQNwWRIVGAoGBB5QX1sO0O0O&ref=VFJDXVEOUW&ref_type=105
#美伊谈判推迟 This is good news, because even if it’s delayed, there’s no drop, which means when it actually signs in, it will go up more, so this is a good thing. You ask me why it’s a good thing? Because it’s a good thing. $ETH
Now start doing long positions in batches, anyway, this is a good thing.

#我的Gate交易时刻 Ethereum has a chance, giant whales are going long, entering at 1707, stop-loss at 1700, profit target at 1750, with three times leverage. If it breaks down, it indicates the main players are bearish, and longs can't push it higher, so they will reverse and short. Seeing 1650 and 1695, shorting with three times leverage.$ETH ‌$ETH ‌

#预测世界杯巴西VS海地 Today I saw in the group that someone bought a match between the United States and Australia. He predicted the US to win, but it showed he lost $900. What was the reason? Because he bet on the US to win in the second half. The score at halftime was 2-0, and the second half was 0-0, so he ultimately lost. He told us a principle: if you predict a World Cup match next time, like Brazil vs. Haiti, you need to see what type it is. Is it first-half win, second-half win, full match win, or first-half win? If you choose "no" for first-half, as long as it's a draw, you win. If the other t

#预测世界杯巴西VS海地 Don't buy when Brazil has a 90% probability, because the risk-reward ratio isn't worthwhile. You instinctively earn 0.1 with a 0.9 chance, but the winning probability hasn't reached over 90%.
If you buy Haiti with a 5% chance, and sell when it reaches 7% or 8%, its ability and probability to make money are higher.
Because as soon as Haiti scores one or two goals, its victory probability is no longer below 10%.
In terms of risk-reward ratio, it's very good.
If you bet on football long-term, you'll find that events with high probability will only give you two chances to pro