0xDreamChaser

vip
Age 8.6 Year
Peak Tier 2
Survivors who got on board during the 2018 Bear Market, focusing on small-cap gem discovery. Spend 8 hours a day reading White Papers, exceptionally sensitive to Lock-up Position models and Token Economics. Do not chase hype, only focus on fundamentals, but always sell too early.
I've been watching Panasonic for a while. When AI rises, it captures the valuation, and its drawdowns are limited. It skates the sharpest edge and earns the steadiest (to B) money. Suitable for old geezers like Master Roshi, who at an advanced age can't take risks yet still enjoy looking at beauty magazines and getting nosebleeds.
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My direction is the opposite of most of my friends. When the market is up at a high level, I only dare to add positions in low-risk names like NV and TSM. But during a big drop, I end up placing myself right in the center of the storm—testing the waters by buying the riskiest stuff. This is really just a matter of style preference; there’s no such thing as a universally “better” or “worse” approach. The reason you absolutely can’t follow along is that you need to understand yourself: are you into getting hurt, and can you endure being hit? What if getting hit is actually genuinely great for th
TSM0.76%
0006606.26%
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I’m going in the opposite direction from a lot of my friends. When the market is at a high point, I only dare to buy low-risk names like nv and TSM. But when there’s a big drop, instead of staying away, I put myself right in the eye of the storm and try buying the riskiest stuff. This is really just a matter of preference in style—there’s no such thing as better or worse.
So the real reason you absolutely can’t just follow along is that you need to know yourself: are you the kind of person who likes getting hurt, and can you really take a beating? If they genuinely find it “so enjoyable” to be
TSM0.76%
0006606.26%
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In recent months in the US stock market, whenever there are expectations of rate hikes and inflation, hard semiconductors go up, while “soft” big tech, gold, and Bitcoin go down. Conversely, when there’s a trade with no rate hike, the hard ones don’t perform, and the soft ones rise again. As for the so-called question of whether trading “includes rate hikes,” it’s not really a true rate hike or a true no rate hike—it just tracks oil prices, which apparently are controlled by Trump’s mouth. So it turns out that “Uncle Trump” is the real “verbal capital” 🫡
GLDX-1.19%
PAXG-0.81%
BTC-1.60%
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Rephrasing a view of Robin, Chief China Strategist at Morgan Stanley. He believes that in the second half of the year, China needs to introduce some positive policies for domestic household consumption. The reasons are, on one hand, to improve the K-shaped economic divergence, and on the other hand, to stimulate the household sector, ensuring that domestic big players like ByteDance and Alibaba maintain their continuous cash-generating capabilities, so as to increase their competitiveness with foreign AI companies, rather than blindly subsidizing hard tech, because the buyers of hard tech are
BABA11.10%
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Let’s wait until August to see how the optical module sector’s mid-year report turns out. Then compare it with the current price of “Yi Zhong Tian,” and you’ll be able to tell just how deep the waters are in China’s A-share market. For this optical module performance, believe it early—around the 3,800-point mark on the ChiNext is a solid buying opportunity. Don’t end up, after the mid-year report comes out, as the one left holding the bag with your value-investing play.
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The chief US equity analyst at Morgan Stanley still has influence, huh. He's bearish on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and bullish on large cloud vendors, believing that cooling rate hike expectations and falling oil prices will cause funds to flow out of semiconductors. The market had already started trading this way, and his call just made it more obvious. Time to play defense. Those previously unattainable stocks you liked—Micron, AMD, INTC, and others in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index—might now be available at a discount for you to buy back in.
AMD0.12%
INTC-0.16%
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Stayed up late watching the Spain vs. Portugal match... Woke up to find that the 86 7709 pending orders had all been filled. Quite ruthless.
A left-side trader must endure the pain. Last year, I bought 7709 at 17 and kept buying all the way down to 10... At that time, it dropped 40 points😆
Currently, it's a battle of profits. I have cleared all the stored DRAM, so I chose the one with the highest trading elasticity.
The Nasdaq seems to be forming a converging triangle. If your previous profits are not very high, it is recommended to wait for the market to choose a direction before deciding ho
NAS100-0.02%
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@LucyBuilding @TRADERHHHHH Is that the robot that went public via a backdoor listing? It feels like the market cap isn’t big, so it might get called a meme by Bai Mao. 😂 Memes are all about emotions, so it’s not easy to judge.
MEME-1.72%
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PS: Don’t actually lie low with TSM for three to five years, only to wake up and find that TSMC has changed its name to CSMC or ASMC—don’t blame me, although I think the probability is very low😂
TSM0.76%
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The 4,000-point “toll station” on the ChiNext board in the first half of the year is expected to be revised upward by a few hundred points in the future, but it still can’t be ignored. A-share retail investors are crowded and there’s no shortage of liquidity, so installing a toll station to keep the situation manageable isn’t necessarily a bad thing. As for whether it’s “tech” or not, or whether rotation is happening or not, I’ve never considered that—because if you tell me to go all-in on “old Biden,” I’d rather buy NVDA or TSM and just lie low for three years… To build alpha in A-shares, all
TSM0.76%
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The entire AI sector has become completely tied to storage. Storage is the locomotive—the one receiving the largest airflow and therefore bearing the greatest risk. And Hynix is the locomotive of storage, with 7709 being the largest leveraged position. If you want AI not to collapse, the only thing you can do is to “refuel” 7709. In other words, if the locomotive breaks down, the whole train has to slow down for repairs. It’s a bit naïve to fantasize that if storage collapses, money will flow into other sectors to help unwind your other AI positions.
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My guess is that the Federal Reserve can probably predict the impact of the World Cup on employment numbers. Warsh's first speech being relatively "hawkish" was just to demonstrate his independence, and afterward he can easily turn "dovish" to cooperate with Trump's midterm elections.
Lower oil prices and nonfarm payrolls have cooled expectations for rate hikes. Funds will flow out of the AI sector, which can buck macro trends, and will gradually return to BTC, gold, and other assets. If Warsh indeed turns dovish in the future, I suspect it's just a closed-door deal with Trump, and it won't af
BTC-1.60%
GLDX-1.19%
PAXG-0.81%
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Previously, I was worried that the listing of CXMT would cause good news to turn into a huge negative, leaving the market in disarray. Now that it has fallen in advance, I feel that stocks like GigaDevice will be safer. If it can drop to the price I sold at over 600 before, I will buy back. Semiconductor equipment is a heavy asset; if you want to clear out, there should still be opportunities before the listing. In the A-share market, I think any PE above 100x can be sold, and below 80x can be bought back. The A-share market is like an invisible hand controlling the market, including many sect
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Follow me for more financial advice 🫡
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@qinbafrank Meta genius, are you thinking of becoming a sub-landlord?
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@xiaomustock Actually, Rilance is quite good—its equipment is also good. In Korea, TES has already reached thirty points; both packaging and testing, and the packaging and testing equipment, are bottlenecks.
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My girlfriend has improved quickly in short-term stock trading techniques. She has learned that for some sectors, you need to look from downstream to upstream, while for others, you start from upstream to downstream. Previously, her short-term results were mediocre—she often sold low and bought high, struggling to keep up with sector rotation, and her final performance was far worse than various ETFs. The same goes for me: most of my positions are long-term, and short-term trading is always a game of probability. But the important thing is to understand what’s happening in the market and what’
GLDX-1.19%
PAXG-0.81%
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Have you noticed that the market has shifted from focusing on the pain point of storage shortages to how to solve this pain point through trading. This is the biggest reason for buying semiconductor equipment stocks last week, and the other obvious one is the CXL sector, which essentially also addresses the pain point of storage shortages. However, regarding CXL, earlier I made a wrong bet in order to get quota for Changxin's IPO, selling $ALAB and buying Montage Technology instead. Although it has risen a bit, it's far from ALAB... Montage may be affected by memory shortages and is not a cor
ALAB2.68%
068098.40%
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@xiaomustock @1kbxx BOE and Corning both have 2C consumer segment businesses. Corning's is less than 30%, while BOE accounts for the majority. The consumption in the US versus China... Purity is far inferior to Corning.
GLW-0.73%
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