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$SPX is now more than 40% above its 200 week MA. When it did that in 2021 it was in April, 9 months before the top. The yearly S1 is 7582. As long as the deal isn't signed it may lead to a pullback. If the deal is signed the yearly S2 at 8319 will be in play in the coming months.

$TSLA has invalidated further downside to the monthly pivot at 376 by regaining the 1st monthly resistance at 415. It has to close above the 2nd monthly resistance at 448 in order to get back to its all time high at 499.

$NVDA is probably headed to a retest of the previous all time high at 212. If it holds above 212 we may see a bullish reversal back to new highs. If it doesn't hold above 212 the next downside target would be the monthly pivot at 196.

Does anyone take Trump seriously anymore? He's made himself look like a total clown.

This is the only Republican politician I've seen that calls it exactly as it is. Well done.

This is invalidated. There's no need to wait for a close above the 20 day MA. Trump's surrender to Iran is a green light for a silver rally. It's probably headed to above 90 now.

This is invalidated. There's no need to wait for a close above the 20 day MA. Trump's surrender to Iran is a green light for a gold rally. It's probably headed to above 5000 now.

$MSFT - Despite the close above the 20 week MA last week it didn't make any progress this week. The inverse trade between semiconductor stocks and software stocks is still in effect, but I expect it to reach the yearly pivot at 461 in the coming weeks.

$USOIL - It looks like crude oil is going to break down from the converging pattern that has formed since April. A sustainable downtrend will probably happen only after a weekly close below the 20 week MA.

$TLT undercut the 2025 low this week but not the 2023 low and ended the week with a potential bullish reversal candle. Given the news about a long extension of the ceasefire with Iran it looks like the low for the year may be in, just like last May.

$GDX -Unlike gold which topped in late January it made the high for the year in March. At the March low gold completed an ABC down move while GDX has only completed an A and a B so far, and C is still in progress. A potential target for the wave C low is the yearly pivot(70.63).

$Silver has not touched its 200 day MA yet despite a huge drawdown from the January top, so I expect it to happen soon. The 200 day MA is currently at 65.81. However, a close above the 20 day MA(77.50) will invalidate further downside next week.

There's a lot of speculation that Trump's announcement is an indication that the war in Iran will resume this weekend. The problem is that for now assesses that there's only a 42% probability for that, so either it's wrong or the war won't start tonight.

Analyzing the previous cases leads to the following conclusion: $SPX is likely to print 8000+ in the next 3 months, then have a double digit correction or crash, remains to be seen, in the July-October timeframe.

$SPX - The other 2 cases occurred in: June 1997 - Rallied another 9.3% into October, then had a 13% drawdown in October 1997. March 1998 - Rallied another 8.3% into July, then crashed 22% from July to October 1998. That's the only other mid term case.

$SPX is up 8 weeks in a row and rallied more than 15% in those 8 weeks. This is only the 4th time that happened in the last 30 years. The last time it happened was in December 2023. In that case S&P 500 rallied another 10.7% before experiencing a mild correction in April 2024.

$AAPL - 8th up week in a row and approaching the 1st yearly resistance at 317. 317 is the level where we may see the next intermediate term top at, given that Apple isn't cheap in comparison with most of MAG 7 stocks.