GateUser-3b3659cc

Silver bugs were saying the same thing over the last 2 months and it ended up badly for them.

$BTC - I still expect it to bounce to the 100 day MA that is currently around 79200. However, if it breaks the March low at 65619 the next down leg into April would already be underway.

Given that SPX is down 4 weeks in a row it may have made a short term low on Friday and will bounce to the 40 week MA as it did last March before the crash into April. The main difference is that unlike last April there won't a be crash this time.

The NYSE and $SPX advance-decline lines topped in late February. There was no divergence at the top(an A-D line top before the S&P 500 top). Prior to every 4 year or 7 year cycle high in the past except one, the NYSE A-D line topped before the S&P 500. The only exception was 1994

$USOIL - Traded the entire week in a 92-102 range. A daily close above 103 will take it to 110 while a daily close below 93 will take it back to 80. Could go both ways depending on the news about the Iran war.

$Gold - Closed the week below the 20 week MA for the 1st time since 2023. Since it didn't break the February low(4402), I'm not sure it's significant. It depends on whether it holds above 4400 or not. If it breaks 4400 it may crash all the way to the yearly pivot at 3829.

$SPX - Closed below the 200 day MA which is a red flag but I'm still bullish for 3 reasons: 1. We are 79 trading days from the November low which is equal to the duration of the last 16 week cycle. 2. It didn't break the November low. 3. The daily candle is green which favors an

This is hyperbolic bullshit. In 1973-1980 during the Arab oil embargo on the U.S and its allies, the price of crude oil spiked from $3.56 to $39.50. That was a 1000% increase in the price of crude oil. That is obviously not going to repeat this time.

$Silver is trading below its 100 day MA for the 1st time since its April 2025 low. However, I don't think it's relevant since it retested the February low earlier today, so unless it breaks below 64 it probably made a multi week low today and should move higher into April.

Every time oil analysts say that you know that's never going to happen.

$CPCE - The CBOE equity put/call ratio spiked to 1.11, its highest level since April 2024. The 10 day moving average of the ratio is now at 0.73 which is higher than it was at April 2025 low. The last time it was that high was at the August 2024 low.

$SPX - Made a marginal lower low today but still hasn't hit the 200 day MA at 6615. We're 78 trading days from the November low so the market is still in the timeframe for a 16 week cycle low. There's also a RSI bullish divergence so the market is bottoming here despite all the

$USOIL - This is how WTI oil looks like. Weak sauce.

$UKOIL - Brent oil is significantly outperforming WTI oil for obvious reasons. Both topped around $119.50 last Monday, but while WTI has only reached $98 today, Brent reached $110 at today's high and is close to the 78.6% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday crash.

The last time inflation was out of control, gold was down 7 months in a row from April to October 2022.

October 2014 to February 2016 wasn't a bear market. The October 2014 low was $1820. The February 2016 low was $1810. It was a 16 month period of flat return.

$SPX - Closed higher today but with a red candle which on paper isn't a good sign for tomorrow. The market's reaction to the FOMC tomorrow should determine if the 16 week cycle low is in or it makes a lower low this week and hits the 200 day MA.