AxelAdlerJr

Brent fell toward $90 per barrel after the United States and Iran paused mutual strikes over the weekend amid efforts to resume diplomatic talks.

Christine Lagarde said that the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to materialize and that the ECB will monitor its intensity and duration, as well as indirect effects and second-round increases in energy prices.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 4.70%, extending its advance for a fifth consecutive session and reaching its highest level in a year. The president's latest tariff package heightened concerns about a further deterioration in trade relations between the United States and its key partners.
On the monetary policy front, rising energy prices strengthened expectations of a more hawkish stance, with markets pricing in a 34% probability of a Fed rate hike next week.

Gold prices fell to $4,027 per ounce, extending the nearly 2% decline from the previous session, as rising oil prices driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East strengthened the case for tighter U.S. monetary policy.

Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel, gaining nearly 14% over the week, as escalating tensions in the Middle East intensified concerns about major disruptions to global supply. The U.S. continued its strikes on Iran for a 13th consecutive day, while both sides ruled out the possibility of negotiations in the near term.

Brent rose to a new six-week high of $98 per barrel, extending its rally for a fifth consecutive session amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and growing risks of supply disruptions.
Donald Trump warned that the US would strike Iranian infrastructure if Tehran attacks vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, in turn, threatened retaliatory strikes against US-linked energy facilities across the region.
At the same time, the Iran-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea with missiles and drones. These were the first direct strikes on tankers along this route, raising con

The European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday after raising them by 25 basis points in June - its first increase in nearly three years. The decision was made amid rising inflationary pressure, driven primarily by higher energy prices.

US investors are buying Bitcoin again: ETFs have attracted $439M so far this week.
The Coinbase discount has persisted for 78 days, but it is narrowing. Pressure is easing faster than demand is returning.
bitcoin:native Morning Brief #219 - what will confirm the reversal 👇

Bitcoin’s basis was negative for 71.5% of its history, so the sign alone tells you very little.
In the new SQL of the Week, I show how the 1Y Percentile and 30D SMA separate leverage-demand normalization from genuine overheating.

Brent rose toward $94 per barrel.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury remains around 4.6%, near two-month highs. Ongoing military action between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher, intensifying concerns about inflation and the outlook for interest rates.

The BTC price has risen 11.4% from the June low, while realized volatility has fallen from 41 to 28. At the same time, Open Interest as a share of market capitalization has been declining for 21 consecutive days.
The main question is - what is happening inside this volatility compression?
Full analysis in Morning Brief #218 👇

Today’s earnings focus is on Charles Schwab, Chubb, Danaher, General Motors, and 3M.
Later this week, the market is waiting for results from Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel. Big Tech could set the direction for markets and risk assets.