Jamesvanst

As I've said repeatedly, bitcoin's daily trading volume is anywhere between $50 billion and $80 billion on any given day.
The market clearly prioritizes the USD reserve. Selling 0.4% of your bitcoin holdings to fund obligations is a drop in the bucket.
The market narrative now needs to move on from MSTR and ETFs for the next cycle.
"When bad news no longer pushes prices lower, the bottom may be in."

The one major difference in the 2026 bear market vs. 2022 is the fact that stablecoin supply (USDT + USDC) has stayed flat, compared to being down only in 2022.
Stablecoin supply grew by 160% during the last bull market (2023 to 2025).
With GENIUS coming in 2027, I expect even bigger growth.
Once flows start entering into stablecoins, that money then enters the crypto ecosystem.

Bitcoin against Silver is now above the 200DMA for the first time since July 2025.
Bitcoin topped against Silver in December 2024, months before BTC topped in USD terms.
Metals first, then USD

4 charts to show why the bitcoin bottom isn't in based on previous cycles.
LTH Realized Price at $49.3k = BTC has always gone below it.
LTH and STH MVRV have yet to converge with one another.
Realized Price - Average cost basis at $53k
LTH SOPR - LTHs realizing losses, but not at previous capitulation levels.

Back to both Silver and Bitcoin trading at 60.
Silver low so far was $55.5, bitcoin was $57.7k

The Yen leads, and everything else will follow it

The nominal difference between $STRC and $SATA has just made new highs at $13.
$SATA up 5%, $STRC down 2%.
While, the MSTR/IBIT ratio is now at 2.45, down over 4% today. The ratio started at 2.14.
This is a specific @saylor issue.

Four of Strategy's six convertible bonds ($3.2B notional) are still trading above par.
Even with MSTR trading around $85 (85% below ATH) bondholders are pricing a high probability of principal repayment.
As the stock has fallen, the convertibles are trading more like credit instruments and less like equity call options.
The market appears to be pricing that Bitcoin and MSTR eventually recover, or that Strategy can refinance its debt before maturity.
In other words, credit investors still view the senior convertibles as money good, even as equity investors have become much more panican.
The ca

Four of Strategy's six convertible bonds ($3.2B notional) are still trading above par.
Even with MSTR trading around $85 (85% below ATH) bondholders are pricing a high probability of principal repayment.
As the stock has fallen, the convertibles are trading more like credit instruments and less like equity call options.
The market appears to be pricing that Bitcoin and MSTR eventually recover, or that Strategy can refinance its debt before maturity.
In other words, credit investors still view the senior convertibles as money good, even as equity investors have become much more pessimistic.
The