MHuy_HCCVenture

The DXY is in a long-term upward cycle after bottoming out at 71–72 (2008–2010) and forming higher lows from 2011.
- It peaked above 110 in 2022 and is currently correcting to 99.27 (May 2026).
The long-term upward trend line (red dashed) from late 2018 still acts as important support. The price is currently right above this line, indicating a high probability of the DXY recovering to 102–105 in Q3–Q4 2026, unless there is a strong break below 98.5.
Impact on Gold Price
The DXY and gold have a strong inverse relationship (correlation of -0.7 to -0.9).
- The period when the DXY fell from 110 to

GOLD IS STRONGLY OVERVALUED AGAINST GLOBAL LIQUIDITY!
According to data analysis from “Gold – Global Liquidity”:
- The price of gold (white line) is well above the +2σ band compared to Global Liquidity (orange line).
- The historical correlation is extremely strong: R² = 0.9308.
- The last time a similar situation occurred was in 2011, followed by a 10-year bear market (gold prices fell sharply and remained sideways for a long time).
Currently, for Global Liquidity to catch up with the price of gold, it must continue to increase at its current rate for more than another year.

Inflation is the deciding factor!
VOLCKER ERA 1970s VS. NOW (2026)
US inflation in April 2026 will only be 3.78% – much lower than the peak of the 1970s (when Volcker had to frantically raise interest rates to 20% to curb inflation).
When inflation rises and bond yields explode → gold usually undergoes a deep correction before a strong surge (the early Volcker period is a prime example).
Currently, US oil prices have surged and the Trump-China agreement may push inflation up in the next quarter, but in the short term, high yields are prevailing.
Gold is not yet the time to "all-in" and increas

IMPORTANT MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS FOR #GOLD
30-YEAR YIELD REACHES 5.09% – #GOLD WILL FACE STRONG PRESSURE!
The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds has just surged to 5.09% – the third highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis.
It's only 8 basis points away from its 19-year high.
US public debt is now more expensive than ever.
Direct impact on gold?
High bond yields equal the soaring opportunity cost of owning gold → money flows out of bonds → strong selling pressure on #XAUUSD in the short term.
Combined with the gold chart testing the EQ + M13 zone around 4,500 → the probability of a

We are entering the most dangerous bond market in history.
- The yield on 30-year UK Treasury bonds reached 5.859%, the highest level since 1998.
- The yield on 30-year Japanese Treasury bonds reached 4.085%, the highest level ever recorded.
- The yield on 20-year US Treasury bonds reached 5.148% and on 30-year US Treasury bonds reached 5.131%, both the highest since May 2025.
The market has now concluded that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has only one option left: raise interest rates. As soon as that happens, Japanese bond yields will rise higher, the yield spread between the US and Japan will nar

$ETH looks heavy here. Current structure:
• Clear lower highs on lower timeframes
• Price rejected directly from supply
• Weak low sitting around 2240
• Momentum fading after the recent bounce
As long as ETH stays below 2275–2320:
→ This still looks like a sell-the-rally environment.
Most likely scenario: Sweep local liquidity → continuation lower into deeper demand.
Key downside zone: 2180–2200 liquidity area
• Strong reclaim above 2320 = short thesis weakens
Right now, ETH is not showing expansion. It’s showing distribution.

The interesting thing about the market is:
Whenever liquidity and positioning reach an "overheated" state, the S&P500 usually enters a sharp correction phase shortly afterward.
• 2000 → Dot-com crash
• 2008 → GFC
• 2022 → Fed tightening shock
Currently, the structure is starting to resemble those phases:
• Positioning returns to extremely high levels
• Speculative liquidity increases sharply
• Market breadth begins to weaken compared to price
Meanwhile, the market is still pricing in a near-perfect "soft landing."
That's usually when risk is underestimated.
If history repeats itself:
→ A 20–25

#XAUUSD perfectly reflects the situation just before the 1979 crisis.
Similar chart, but 50 years apart.
1979: Iran War → Oil prices double → Chaos → Sharp decline
2026: Iran War → Oil prices double → Right now
The same pattern. The same situation. Will history repeat itself? We started the rally at $25xx and now will it return to that level after one final upward correction?
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are entirely my personal views and do not represent this platform in any way. This article is not intended as investment advice.

The market is underestimating the severity of the Japanese situation:
• 10-year Japanese bond yields are at a 29-year high
• 20-year yields are at nearly 30 years high
• 30-year and 40-year yields are setting new all-time highs
This isn't just a problem for Japan alone, because for over 20 years, Japan has been the world's largest source of carry trade capital, borrowing in Yen at near-zero interest rates and using that money to buy global assets, from US bonds, stocks, crypto to emerging markets.
We must emphasize that when Japanese bond yields rise sharply:
- More money flows back into the c

The interesting thing about Bitcoin is:
The biggest surges often begin right after the market has caused most people to give up.
The area circled on the chart is where the panic peaked:
• Bad news was everywhere
• Sentiment was extremely pessimistic
• The majority believed the market had "broken"
But instead of continuing to collapse, BTC began to form higher lows and entered a new uptrend.
That's how the market has operated over the past some years I've observed:
Tops are formed during euphoria. Troughs are formed during exhaustion.
Currently, the price structure still shows that buyers are i

$BTC is forming a very "clean" structure: repeated lower highs + breakdown
• Each time it touches resistance (circled area) → it is rejected
• This is followed by a sharp drop (~30–35%)
• This structure is repeating for the 3rd time
Currently:
→ Price is retesting the supply zone of ~75–78k
→ This is the next lower high if it doesn't break out
If short-term history continues:
→ There is a high probability of another ~30% drop
→ Target~$45k–50k
This is not an uptrend, this is a distribution/downtrend continuation.
Only when BTC strongly reclaims and holds above the 80k zone will this structure