MatthewDixon

Some say $ICP is a Ghost but data does not agree!
#ICP still has active core development by @dfinity Foundation
ongoing grants and ecosystem funding fully on-chain apps and hosting capabilities
A technically unique architecture (canisters, reverse gas model, web-speed smart contracts)
Active governance through the Network Nervous System (NNS)
Technically, ICP is one of the more ambitious Layer 1 designs:
smart contracts can directly serve web content
apps can run entirely on-chain
#Bitcoin integration without bridges exists
AI + on-chain compute narratives fit ICP better than many chains
The

According to Ai, up to 70% of #Crypto chains are DEAD
That means that a massive number of Hodlers will NEVER see their money back.
Unlike companies that officially bankrupt and close, crypto can hang on as a Ghost chain as long as holders remain.
Fact is when you have lost 99% of your value there is no point cashing in, and people prefer to hold, on the off chance of a miraculous revival.
Does anybody hold on to a potential Ghost chain?
what are good candidates?
EOS — probably the prime example imo.
They raised $4+ billion (largest ICO ever)
Marketed as an “Ethereum killer”
Huge early hype and

'FIB B' being exactly 4.236 X 'FIB A' gives me great confidence that 3rd wave complete & we have witnessed a recent ABC correction & now embarking on 5th wave higher to a new #BTC ATH
Also the 4th wave entered the territory of the previous wave 4 of lesser degree an EW guideline

We are bang on #BTC resistance right now and so a pullback of some sort is very possible from here.

Bear in mind, #BTC is not showing any Divergence and so its unlikely the top is in yet and we should have another ATH coming as Geopolitical tensions decline and monetary policy eases = excess liquidity to PUMP $BTC $Crypto #ALTs
Also RSI is mid channel & EW count looks like wave 4 correction complete with 5th of 5th to come

I asked Claude Ai - "what are the chances of a 2008 style market crash this year?"
It said, that a Healthy correction is most likely.
#SPX pullback to ~6,200–6,500
i.e. -10% to -15%
Then continuation
Normal bull market behaviour with higher to go in this 5th wave.
On this basis likely #BTC higher also

To be transparent, I went short #BTC about 30 mins ago and ive now closed (in tiny profit) because the chart does look poised to go higher from here.
So I am staying out of the market now.
I see almost 50/50 chance of up or down and that's awful odds for trading

We have achieved the #BTC target, upper resistance line of the parallel channel.
This IS decision time for $BTC
We have 100% extension of the C in respect to A
We have Bearish Divergence on the Daily
We hit the upper resistance of parallel channel
And a likely complete corrective structure from low

As is so often the case, there is room for interpretation on #OIL where we have a technically valid 5 waves down
But alternatively it could just be ABC
Very different implications and this is reflected in #BTC and other risk assets that are right now at a crossroads.
Caution is necessary whichever way you choose to trade

In order to be a true leading diagonal structure we would look for:
Clear 5-wave wedge completion
Weak breakout with no strong follow-through
Then a deep retrace (FIB 0.618–0.786)
The fact is that #BTC is currently a parallel channel
EVEN IF this is a Leading diagonal OR impulse of some sort THEN we should expect a deep retracement. So even if its an impulse higher, we should be able to short and protect before the next $BTC move higher

In order to say #BTC is moving impulsively higher (as many Permabulls are now saying), then you need to count 5 waves up from the low without multiple wave overlaps.
I just cant see it.
Pls go back and look at other instances where price based and then moved impulsively higher - they do not look like this!

#DXY is what is holding me from taking a short position in #BTC
I believe the price action within the pink ellipse is all corrective wave 4 and we are just beginning the 5th wave down due to weakening #Dollar.
An inverse correlation with $BTC & #Crypto should give those risk assets a final push higher before we head back lower

#BTC/#XAU is a very informative chart.
The peak on the left shows maximum $BTC strength against $Gold and this coincides with the wave 4 low on the #Gold chart.
Gold then appreciated whilst #Bitcoin declined over the same period showing perfect inverse correlation.
More recently we have had BTC resilience and Gold weakness.
We can therefore look at Gold which is influenced by #Inflation and deduce where BTC is going.
Gold looks set to fall further and so we should likely see further appreciation of BTC in the short term.
As a result I will hold off shorting BTC for now.
Even alleged safe haven

#BTC/#XAU is a very informative chart.
The peak on the left shows maximum $BTC strength against $Gold and this coincides with the wave 4 low on the #Gold chart.
Gold then appreciated whilst #Bitcoin declined over the same period showing perfect inverse correlation.
More recently we have had BTC resilience and Gold weakness.
We can therefore look at Gold which is influenced by #Inflation and deduce where BTC is going.
Gold looks set to fall further and so we should likely see further appreciation of BTC in the short term.
As a result I will hold off shorting BTC for now

Short term view of #OIL on the 1 hr chart, we see a clear correction from the circled peak.
The ABC correction has A=C with no Divergence and so qualifies well as just a correction and we therefore expect more upward movement on $OIL which fits well with the bigger picture also.
Perhaps more stress to come as a result for risk assets #BTC etc

You can see from this #BTC chart, shown when the recent abc had completed and when the current rise was only anticipated that it was a correct expectation as $BTC has risen to meet our expectation.
Still expecting a little higher but I am NOT buying as the overall trend is still down imo

Two differing views here for #DXY both expect initial decline followed by rising #Dollar
The inverse relationship with risk assets, #BTC #Crypto #SPX etc means that a further modest asset appreciation may be on the cards before the next big decline.
Im still awaiting better levels to SELL

All that Hawkishness out off the #FED and just look at #DXY
THE MARKETS ARE NOT BUYING IT!
Assuming these geopolitical tensions diminish then the FED will soon be stimulating the economy and this Hawkish rhetoric will be forgotten.
Thats when #Dollar declines further and we get our Blow off top.
So patience is the order of the day