MatthewDixon

The market is focused on today's selling.
I'm watching the end of the move.
The measured C wave thrust from this B wave triangle projects to $64.25 for #WTI.
With weekly RSI already deeply oversold, the ingredients for a meaningful reversal are beginning to come together.
The chart tells us where to watch. The market will decide when.
#Oil #ElliottWave

What I also like about this EW #BTC count is that the larger structure has good proportionality:
W produces the initial sharp decline.
X retraces a meaningful portion of W but fails to regain the previous highs.
Y begins with another strong decline.
Which is a common look for a complex correction.

Everyone wants to call the #BTC #Crypto bottom.
I'm not convinced we're there yet.
If this Elliott Wave count is correct, #Bitcoin could see a short-term bounce before one final decline into a potential Q4 low.
Until the market starts printing higher highs and higher lows, the primary trend remains down.
Patience pays.

Markets move first. Headlines catch up later.
#WTI appears to have completed a B wave triangle, with a measured C-wave target around $OIL 60 to 65.
That's precisely where the market could be setting up for its next major advance (with an inversely correlated #BTC low in Q4)
The catalyst?
Perhaps OPEC+, a stronger Dollar, stronger demand, or geopolitical tensions.
The chart tells me to watch the price. The news will likely provide the narrative afterwards.

Dont lose hope, #ICP is actually one of my favoured picks when the market bottoms, likely Q4
Yes, he chart shows a spectacularly overvalued launch.
A multi-year deflation of expectations.
But there is long-term stabilisation near low levels.
The huge candle on the left distorts everything.
If $ICP had launched at $10 instead of hundreds of dollars, many people would view the chart very differently.
The technology still exists and unlike many failed projects, ICP still has:
Active development.
On-chain applications.
Native Bitcoin integration.
AI-related initiatives.
Significant treasury and fo

#LTC is approaching a major decision zone.
All roads still point to a potential major low in Oct 2026.
#Bitcoin Cycle: Post-2024 halving pattern suggests a Q3/Q4 2026 low.
#DXY: If the Dollar tops in late summer/early autumn, risk assets could get relief.
Multi-Year Support: $LTC is back near major support around $35–$45.
Historical Spacing: Major LTC lows have often occurred roughly 12–18 months apart.
Post-Halving Weakness: LTC has historically tended to bottom approximately 2.5–3 years after its halving.
A final washout into October before a larger move higher into 2027?
If this roadmap hol

#DXY is doing exactly what we anticipated.
#Dollar higher
#Crypto lower
The inverse correlation remains firmly in play.
If DXY continues toward the 106 region, #BTC & Crypto could face additional pressure before a meaningful low is established.
Are traders paying enough attention to the Dollar?

Most traders see collapsing oil prices.
I see a completed B-wave triangle.
C-wave thrust target: $65
Next major objective: $120+
If this Elliott Wave count is correct, the current decline is creating the setup for the next significant advance.
#Oil #WTI #Trading

What if the key to the next #Bitcoin bull run isn't Bitcoin?
It's the #Dollar.
My #DXY analysis suggests:
• A final $ rally into October
• Overbought RSI
• Major bearish divergence
• Elliott Wave completion
If that plays out, the Dollar could peak just as #Crypto bottoms.
Coincidence?
I don't think so.

In support of the October #BTC & #Crypto low thesis.
When you take RSI into account. Using RSI trendlines and following the RSI trend from previous peaks would give us an October #DXY #Dollar top, with overbought RSI, MASSIVE regular Bearish Divergence and in full compliance with the Elliott wave count.
This is potentially powerful stuff

My biggest concern for #ETH right now:
The rally from $1,100 looks corrective, not impulsive.
ETH is sitting on the 0.786 retracement near $1,700.
If that level fails, a retest of $1,100 is firmly back on the table.
That probably requires:
• A stronger #DXY
• Weakness in #BTC
• A broader risk-off move
Am I being too bearish?

#ETH shows a series of lower highs & lows.
The decline from the $4,800 area remains intact.
Every rally since has failed below the previous significant high.
$ETH is trading around the 0.786 retracement area 1,700 ish.
A break below this zone would increase the probability of a retest of the major low near $1,100.
The rally from $1,100 looks corrective & choppy rather than an obvious 5-wave impulse which is worrisome imo
However for such a deep retracement to occur we would likely need to see
#BTC losing major support.
#DXY strengthening substantially.
and Risk assets generally entering a broa

If I could only own ONE #Crypto
For a 5-year horizon and assuming existing #Bitcoin exposure, I would probably choose:
#Bittensor #TAO
Not because it's the safest, but because it has the combination of:
AI narrative
Scarcity
Strong tokenomics
Genuine utility
Potential for exponential growth.
Im not all-in but for me its the best DCA opportunity.

Most traders lose money not because they're wrong.
They lose money because they're early.
I think that lesson is about to be taught again in
#Bitcoin #Crypto

Most #Bitcoin traders are cheering a weaker Dollar.
I'm not.
A final Wave 5 decline in #DXY could send risk assets higher temporarily.
But if the larger bullish #Dollar count is correct, the next move higher could catch most of the market completely offside.
Agree or disagree?

$Bitcoin to bottom in October.
#Altseason starts in Q4.
Most #BTC & #Crypto traders are about to learn a painful lesson:
Timing matters.

$Bitcoin to bottom in October.
#Altseason starts in Q4.
Most #BTC & #Crypto traders are positioned incorrectly due to impatience / jumping the gun.

We have NOT seen any capitulation low.
We have a clear abc move higher followed by a move down, overlapping the peaks of the a wave.
RSI will soon be approaching "over-bought"
The only way that the #BTC bottom could be in is IF we have "nesting" in the form of 1,2 - 1,2 count which looks HIGHLY unlikely at this stage.
Yes is a possibility but with only about 3% probability imo

The abc correction higher in $BTC was nicely capped with double Bearish Divergence signals (with c wave extension less than 1.382 times wave a, showing it was only c wave and not an impulse)
Sadly this is confirmation that the impulsive direction is STILL down towards a likely October low for #BTC & #Crypto