PancakeFlippa

EOD recap - 7 Jul 26
Bruising day for momentum with the selling climax in the middle of the day. All high beta sectors were hit regardless of whether they were connected to the semis theme or not.
In memory, $MU and $SNDK ended the day down 5% and 7%. Overall $SNDK defended the 1.5k level listed earlier. $MU traded a tad stronger taking a few looks below 900.
Neoclouds were down across the board by about 10% with $CRWV coming out ahead by being down only 3.5%. Again, this is the second day of a strong performance by $CRWV within the sector.
Towards the later half of the day, $META released it

beta vega sigma balls

Days like this test your thesis. That said, if you feel sad or under, go out and get some sunlight. Talk to a friend. Eat something nice. Pet your dog.

Why is compute in shortage? How can neoclouds projects be at 2 year paybacks?

Pre market thoughts - 7 Jul 26
30y yields inched higher towards 5%. Meanwhile Asia markets were on edge following the weak US action. KOSPI is down 6.6% and NKY is down 1.6%. $SAMSUNG reported earnings today, hitting it out of the park with a huge profit beat, however revenue was below expectations. For context, the operating profit of 2Q was about 58B usd, this amount was the total amount that samsung used to earn in years. Talk about an epic memory run.
The market however was clearly on edge and started taking down $SKHY together with it. Overnight in US markets, we saw $SNDK and $MU both on

mkt thoughts - 6 jul 26
A tale of 2 cities in terms of performance. Names with overweight positioning definitely feeling the gravity today as they sink deeper into the red while the rest of the names in their sectors stage strong rallies. In neoclouds, performance was led by $SHAZ and $IREN on potential anthropic deals. Meanwhile $NBIS floundered while even $CRWV managed to trade firmly. In memory, $SNDK continues to plunge the lows of thursday while $MU is not that far behind. The commonality between these heavy names are their massively overweight positioning and status as retail go to names

$SHAZ is a 2.5B neocloud with 40,000 GB300s that works out to be 2-4B in ARR. A 3 year deal is 6B-12B.

Market Thoughts - 6 Jul 26
SPX got off to a good start off the open. Across momentum, we are seeing some amount of relief rally. However, popular momentum names opened weak even relative to their sector. For example, in neos, $NBIS was underperforming the entire sector, in memory $SNDK was trading extremely heavy as well. While other momo names in their sectors are able to gap up and do a relief rally, the overweight positioning in those names is keeping a lid on them at the moment as weak hands sell into the relief. I would expect this PA to ease off later on.
We also had news that Situationa

@jukan05 is this true?

This is gonna be unpopular esp for bullish people like me - but the fact that what semi analysis says, has the ability to spook the market - suggests to me that photonics and CPOs have more room to correct

Pre market thoughts - 6 Jul 26
Since the quarterly end rebalancing, yields have inched higher silently with the 10Y at 4.46 and 30y at 4.97. Overnight we had some lacklustre price action in asia markets. As of this writing, KOSPI is down 0.7% while NKY is down 0.3% - both memory markets having retraced some of their huge bounces last friday (~7% on KOSPI, ~5% on NKY).
Over night, it was also leaked that Anthropic was looking to lease up to 1.4GW of compute in australia. First of all, this will have to be done via multiple participants, because there is no singular massive cluster in Australia

The economics of a Neocloud - Why selling compute is like printing cash

The Week Forward - 5 Jul 26
To get prepared for the trading week ahead, i always found it particularly useful to organize my thoughts and to prepare a battle plan prior.
*Recap of Last Week
A quick recap on last week’s price action. We had a huge momentum sell off last week, reaching the most brutal 2day move since Covid. It was not a semis sell off, rather it was a factor sell off ($NVDA held firm while memory puked nearly 20%). In terms of positioning, i believe that most of the crowded longs and “weak hands” have been washed out. For context, pod funds have been implicitly long momentum in

Crypto Special - 4 Jul 26
Seasonally, $BTC has always had a positive month after a bloody June, this was the case in the most recent bear market (2026). A few other points make the case for the local bottom of $BTC to be in as well. Last week we had peak FUD in $MSTR and $STRC. I will not wade too deep into the debate. The point i made was that Saylor needing to sell sometime, doesnt mean he needs to sell now. Likewise, something that is unsustainable, doesnt also mean it needs to collapse now.
Shorting is extremely difficult given the risk reward it offers. Shorts need to manage their capital