Sykodelicc

One of the more bearish metrics right now that doesn't look good...
Is the 200w SMA.
Weekly lost $65,500 and hasnt been able to get back above since.
Now, this weekly candle is currently below the 200w SMA and if it closes there would be first in a very long time.
Bitcoin has only ever closed below the 200w SMA in one bear market, 2022.
When it did, it stayed under for 6 months.
The bulls want Bitcoin back above $62,200 before the end of the week.

Looks like another liquidity hunt.
Nice SMT between BTC and ETH here.
Let's see ETH pump harder out the gates.
Want a daily close back above $60k and that will be our third drive down that gets defended.
Big day.

We bought the wrong asset guys.
I think I will now sell my Bitcoin to buy the Dow Jones.
Bitcoin as an ass-et has failed.
It probably was made by the CIA.
Dave down at mcdonalds was right.
And my taxi driver.
Its all a scam.
P.S...
This is sarcasm...
Bet more.

The stats coming out of this market are wild.
Bitcoin has now reached only 46% of the supply now in profit.
This equals the 2022 bear market low.
Bitcoin has reached this level after a 52% drop, compared to 2022 at a 75% drop.
And its doing all of this whilst small cap stocks make new highs.
If you had told me this 6 months ago i simply wouldn't have believed you whatsoever.

I just cannot unsee all these 2019 comparisons.
There are simply far too many.
The top chart is TOTAL3/BTC, it shows us the strength of Alts against Bitcoin.
We can see that every cycle top TOTAL3/BTC has spiked massively, then distributed as Bitcoin tops and drops again.
In 2022, TOTAL3/BTC distributed for ages and didn't start dropping until Bitcoin bottomed.
But where are right now is a completely different place entriely.
And it looks exactly like 2019, when Bitcoin had a mid cycle correction.
Bitcoin topped, and TOTAL3/BTC bottomed, as alts were stronger than Bitcoin on the drop.
Which is

This is how I generally see the bulk of this year playing out.
I think the $60k low holds overall.
And I don't think it gets tested again just yet, but whether it does or doesn't is not really of importance.
We get a decent relief into the $70k's, and ideally the final flush after that, which confirms that $60k low after 3 drives.
This then leads upwards towards $100k by the end of the year.
I don't think it takes us 16 months to recover to the highs.
The Realised price at $54,000 i think is the major lowest point we will see, and I think it will be short lived.
What do you think?

$SOL looking decent here.
Added a smidge more to my spot bags.
Deviation of the range + reclaim = send it.
I think the whole market is going to move a bit over the next few weeks.

I would like to see one more sweep.
I think the most likely outcome here and now is a third sweep of that $60k low, a little bit deeper.
Give us three drives down and the opportunity to solidify the $60k bottom.
Right now price is grinding upwards, but in a very corrective fashion, below $65,000.
If we break above $65,000 then i think we see $70,000 before the final sweep.
Fail to reclaim $65,000 and it happens sooner.
However, overall, I think the $60k low holds, with a maximum sweep level of $54,000, which we would want to see recover fairly quickly.
Right now we are within the total bottom

This is the fastest time Bitcoin ever entered HTF oversold.
This cycle correction took 140 days.
The other cycles it took:
2013 - 413 days
2018 - 350 days
2022 - 210 days
We have also now had a sweep of the low, which printed a bullish divergence.
In addition, Long term holder supply is at the highest level ever, whilst Long term holders are in the highest percentage of loss ever.
Long term holders, the smart holders, have added the most they have ever added, and they're willing to hold underwater.
So the market has reached most level of oversold whilst LTH are diamond handing and adding, with

This is a significant update on the bottoming formation for Bitcoin.
Bitcoins in a loss has now tagged the 10m+ level, which marked the macro low in 2022 and 2018.
This is over 50% of the supply now in a loss.
This level was created on the drop to $59k, which also marked the lowest daily RSI since the 2018 bottom...
And it did not manage to make a new confirmed low.
Does this rule out another move lower than $60k? Not entirely.
But almost every single piece of data we want to see forming for a true macro low, has now happened.
Another piece of data that validates the fact that we are in a mid

If June closes like this there is a very strong case for the bottom being solidified.
This current situation is setting up to be the inverse of the October top.
5 months in the range, with an initial high/low, then a sweep, then the SFP on the monthly.
We obviously have half the month left, so loads can happen, but it is currently shaping up.
Its also very rare for Bitcoin to make a new low and not follow through. If price is weak, it just chews through it.
Close June $65,500 or higher then the macro low is very likely locked in at $60k.
Close below and chances of new lows increase.
This will

Starting to look like a decent bottom formed here.
After the $60k low sweep, we had a grind up through the $63,000 level, with a nice retest.
From there, Bitcoin looks to be impulsing higher.
A noticeable change in price action here.
Funding negative - I think this move has some more legs here.
Whether $59k was the bottom is yet to be seen, but this is constructive.

This is truly peak value.
Right now, Bitcoin is trading at around the 7% level.
What this means is that Bitcoin only trades at this value level, less than 7% of the time.
So 93 out of 100 days, Bitcoin is trading higher.
That is over a 9/1, which are fantastic odds.
We are currently just above Quantile 5, which Bitcoin has only ever gone below once, within the 2022 bear market.
However, in each previous bull market, Bitcoin has tagged Q95, whereas this time, it did not even tag Quantile 75.
Even more evidence that this is a mid cycle correction.
In summary, this is not the time to be hasty or