TakiBera

Cape Verde advances to the round of 32,
I normally don't watch the World Cup, but even I've heard about it this time.
Legendary!

BTC's core narrative from the very beginning has been "flipping gold," yet its market cap is still only about 1/25th of gold's. Staying true to the original intent, I will absolutely not consider any profit-taking until BTC flips gold.
Even without considering flipping gold, U.S. Treasury bonds still need the help of crypto technology. For U.S. Treasuries to achieve a soft landing, two things are needed:
1. A window period of lower interest rates (doesn't need to last long)
2. Sufficient buyers for short-term bonds
This way, we can "borrow short to pay long," quickly reduce interest expens

Someone asked if the short position is too aggressive, since the Iran negotiations team has all left the table, and why the US stock market opens and oil prices continue to fall.
Take a closer look, the funding rate is still positive, so the bullish traders are more aggressive in speculating on the news, and the bears are not in a hurry to short.
The decline is mainly because there is too much inventory oil in the Gulf that hasn't been shipped out, and whenever someone pulls the market up, oil companies quickly sell a wave of futures for hedging.
So the decline coincides exactly with the

From the expectation of interest rate cuts in March to the expectation of rate hikes in June, the key variable is actually oil prices. As the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, the downward pressure on oil prices will be re-released. In three months, the market's expectation of 'no rate cuts' is very likely to reverse again. The connectivity of macro logic often lies between these geopolitical switches. 📈 #美联储 # Oil prices #Macroeconomics

From the current market sentiment, most people still believe that the four-year cycle proponents have won. I have a slightly optimistic view; maybe everyone can win together.
BTC has experienced three oversold and three overbought signals on the daily RSI during a bear market phase for the first time, and the rebound strength is so strong that even in a bull market, such momentum might not be seen.
Even if this year's bear market is dominated by the four-year cycle, it also proves that some trends of the super cycle have been mixed in.
The bear market is probably only a few months away f

On the first ETFs trading day after dumping weeks, ETH saw a strong inflow, while BTC still experienced a small outflow.
If you fully believe in the four-year cycle and examine the charts closely, you'll see that in the last cycle's bear year, BTC headed for a final drop a few months later, then reached the permanent low.
However, ETH did not hit a lower low in that drop, ETH performed stronger during the last months of the bear year, with a more robust rebound.
If the cycle truly cannot be broken, last weekend may have been the permanent low for ETH in this bear year.
If ETFs continue to show