Polaris_xbt

The Altcoin Risk Metric is my custom model designed to track overall risk conditions in the altcoin market.
It combines multiple data points such as leverage, OI, sentiment, funding, and positioning into a single score to help identify when the market is overheated or when conditions become favorable for swing entries.
I use 2 versions:
🔸Standard Risk Metric - for big spot buys (will post when is a good time to buy)
🔸90-Day Rolling Risk Metric - very useful for spotting local tops and overheated conditions
Below is a snapshot of the latest 90-day rolling risk metric. As of the last two days,

$ETH is underperforming everything.
It is going down against BTC and TOTAL 3 as well. This is usually the case during its bottoming phase.
I have prepared to load up on ETH towards the end of the year as I think the macro double bottom is in the making.

Altcoins showing tiny signs of life here.
Still stuck below the range, but if it is reclaimed we should get a nice spring rally :)

$ETH
Not worth shorting unless this macro trend is broken.

USDT Dominance just broke the bear market trendline.
The trendline that formed at the very start of the bear market has finally cracked.
A weekly close below it will mean that the downside in crypto is limited.

By the looks of it it seems that SOL will return all the way to the bear market lows of 2022.
It certainly looked inpossible in 2024 but here we are.
From peak euphoria down into oblivion.

With altcoins you can maybe DCA here... but I prefer buying the confirmation as I dont want to waste another 2-3 years for this to bottom.
Buy when this turns into deviation.
$UNI is just one nice example here

$XRP
One reason I refuse to chase pumps on XRP.
Last time this thing bottomed, it took 3 full years to get there.
Everyone calling for a V reversal right now needs to explain why this cycle would be any different. History does not care about your optimism.

To bottom or to die, that is the question

$SOL vs ETH
At this point it will take a whole another year for SOL to bottom against ETH.
All those who bought during the meme mania are now becoming a valuable community members :)

ETHBTC is slowly drifting towards the double bottom.
This is why I prefer ETH shorts over BTC shorts.
Hopefully we see acceleration soon and get this over with.

BTC Dominance
We are very likely in a boring grindy phase where nothing really moves. Entire market is waiting for $BTC to give its signal by exploding up.
True altseason simply cannot happen before some BTC strength.

ethereum:native
Most people never look at ETH's relative strength.
Every time we hit the top of the range, it has historically marked peak weakness in ETH. Not a warning to exit. A signal to load up.
If we reach that range high again, I believe it will mark the macro bottom on ETHUSDT for a very long time.
The crowd panics at exactly the moment they should be positioning.

$CHZ
Looking to buy some at the range low.
The narrative for this is World Cup and it has consistently delivered nice pumps.
Worth a bet here.

This looks like one hell of a bullish chart to me...

$DOGE is sitting at its final support against Bitcoin.
A bounce was expected here and we traded it.
But now the chart is at a crossroads.
It either continues up from here, or the whole structure gets broken beyond repair.

$HYPE
Looks ready for much lower.
Trade shared live in the group a few days ago... sitting in very nice profits and this is far from over.

It is very likely that the most aggressive sells of altcoins are behind us.
Now we need to regain some strength against majors $BTC and $ETH.
This chart below is telling as we have broken the trendline. Now we need to start making some higher lows

Historically, altcoin bottoms don't happen in weeks. They take months to form.
Price may not drop much from here. But time based capitulation is what is the most difficult part.
The green zone on this chart is where I'm activating my spot buys.