Gate Research: ETF Flows Weaken in the Short Term, BTC Rebounds After Low-Level Consolidation

Summary

• BTC and ETH staged a notable short-term rebound, but the 4-hour trend structure remains bearish, leaving the market in a “short-term recovery, medium-term pressure” phase. The key focus going forward is whether BTC can firmly hold above the $78,000 level.

• Altcoins broadly recovered alongside the market, with the RWA sector leading performance. Tokens such as SUT, FIDA, and EDEN posted the strongest gains, while overall market sentiment improved from extreme fear back toward neutral territory.

• The Fed’s April meeting minutes delivered a clearly hawkish tone, prompting the market to reprice the possibility of further rate hikes. This has pressured crypto market liquidity and risk asset valuations, while ETF flows have continued to record net outflows in recent sessions.

• SpaceX officially filed for an IPO and disclosed holdings of 18,712 BTC, further reinforcing the narrative of “corporate Bitcoin allocation” and supporting BTC’s long-term mainstream adoption story.

• Hyperliquid (HYPE) briefly surpassed Solana in FDV, while Grayscale and Anchorage continued accumulating and staking HYPE, signaling that institutional capital is accelerating its rotation toward on-chain protocols with real revenue generation.

• Total stablecoin supply and existing ETF AUM remain elevated, while the RWA sector continues to expand in scale, indicating that on-chain liquidity foundations remain solid and that the institutionalization and tokenization of real-world assets continue to deepen.

Market Overview

Market Commentary

• BTC Market Update — Over the past 24 hours, BTC traded in a rebound pattern following low-range consolidation, briefly dipping to an intraday low of $76,044 before gradually recovering, with a 24-hour high reaching $78,596. In terms of trading activity, peak hourly trading volume temporarily exceeded $57 million, indicating relatively active buying interest and contrasting with the previous low-volume decline, suggesting the rebound carries a certain degree of validity. From a moving average perspective, the short-term MA5/10/20 structure remains in bullish alignment, indicating that near-term upward momentum is still intact. MA50 (around $77,127) also sits below the current price, providing additional support. However, the 4-hour MA structure remains bearish overall, meaning the medium-term downtrend has not yet fully reversed. Overall, BTC has rebounded roughly $1,350 from recent lows, with short-term moving averages turning constructive, though the broader 4-hour trend still leans bearish. If BTC can maintain stability above the $78,000 level, it may confirm a short-term trend reversal; otherwise, a move back below $76,500 could reopen risks of retesting prior lows.

• ETH Market Update — Ethereum remains in a downward channel. In the short term, overall trading volume continues to shrink, Bollinger Bands are contracting significantly, and the MA5, MA10, and MA30 are tightly converged, reflecting a lack of directional momentum and a consolidation phase. On the 4-hour chart, ETH failed to hold its lower trendline and broke below the previous ascending channel, further weakening its technical structure. After an unsuccessful rebound attempt near USD 3,100, price made a new local low, indicating a clear loss of bullish momentum. Currently, price is hovering above the USD 2,800 support level, which is temporarily holding, but there are no clear signs of sustained buying interest or proactive capital inflows. Meanwhile, the RSI has begun to decline, signaling weakening intraday momentum. If the USD 2,800 support level fails, price may quickly fall toward the USD 2,600 region.

• Altcoins — The broader crypto market recorded mild gains over the past 24 hours, with major tokens and most altcoins moving higher together. The current Fear & Greed Index is around 41, showing a slight recovery from the previous extreme fear phase, though it has not yet entered a clearly optimistic zone. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index is around 40, indicating that the market has not yet entered a typical altcoin-led rally environment.

• Stablecoins — Total stablecoin supply remains elevated at approximately $323.1 billion, with on-chain USD liquidity pools still abundant, providing underlying settlement depth for both spot and derivatives markets.

• Gas Fees — Ethereum mainnet gas fees remain at historically low levels, generally ranging between 0.1–0.3 Gwei, though noticeably higher than last week.

Trending Tokens

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market generally followed BTC’s moderate rebound, with most major tokens posting mild gains and approximately 62.89% of tokens closing higher. Among all sectors, the RWA category delivered the strongest performance, with tokens such as SUT, EDEN, and FIDA recording an average gain of 7.1%, while individual projects like SUT surged more than 125%. The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 41, indicating that market sentiment has recovered into the “Neutral” zone alongside the recent price rebound.

SUT – SuperTrust (125.24% | Circulating Market Cap: $42.60 million)

According to Gate market data, SUT is currently trading at $0.3275, up 125.24% over the past 24 hours. SuperTrust is a decentralized application protocol focused on global direct advertising platforms (MOAD) and ecosystem publishing products (NATURUBOOK).

SUT’s sharp rally was mainly driven by a significant increase in liquidity across multiple major exchanges, alongside growing community expectations surrounding the launch and adoption of its advertising platform. Amid renewed momentum in the RWA narrative, SUT — as a low-market-cap project with real-world application scenarios — attracted substantial speculative capital inflows, with 24-hour trading volume increasing severalfold compared to previous periods.

FIDA – Bonfida (59.86% | Circulating Market Cap: $203 million)

According to Gate market data, FIDA is currently trading at $0.03445, up 59.86% over the past 24 hours. Bonfida is one of the core infrastructure providers within the Solana ecosystem, best known for operating the Solana Name Service (SNS).

FIDA’s gains were driven by a broader recovery in Solana ecosystem activity and a sharp increase in SNS domain trading volume. Recently, Bonfida introduced several governance reward programs targeting domain holders. Combined with capital spillover effects within the Solana ecosystem, these developments helped push FIDA steadily higher, with trading volume surpassing $200 million over the past 24 hours.

EDEN – OpenEden (55.50% | Circulating Market Cap: $21.95 million)

According to Gate market data, EDEN is currently trading at $0.1226, up 55.50% over the past 24 hours. OpenEden is a protocol focused on bringing real-world assets (RWA) on-chain, primarily through tokenized U.S. Treasury products.

EDEN’s rally extended its strong momentum within the RWA sector. Supported by growing institutional demand for on-chain Treasury exposure, OpenEden’s total value locked (TVL) has continued to rise. Under conditions of relatively low circulating supply and elevated trading volume, EDEN demonstrated strong price elasticity, emerging as one of the leading outperformers within the RWA segment.

Key Market Data Highlights

Fed’s April Minutes Turn Hawkish: Rate-Cut Narrative Fades as Markets Reprice the Possibility of Further Hikes

In the early hours of May 21, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its April FOMC meeting. The minutes showed that officials are no longer seriously debating whether to cut rates, but are instead increasingly weighing the possibility of additional hikes. Most participants explicitly stated that if inflation remains persistently above the 2% target, further policy tightening may become necessary. This marks the second consecutive FOMC meeting in which a growing number of officials have leaned toward discussing potential rate hikes, amid mounting inflationary pressure driven by ongoing Middle East conflicts and rising energy prices.

Shortly after the release, “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos wrote in The Wall Street Journal that discussions around rate cuts are rapidly disappearing, describing the latest minutes as “one of the most divided FOMC minutes in generations.” Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to officially take office this Friday, while the Fed’s next policy meeting will take place on June 16–17.

The core impact of the hawkish minutes on the crypto market lies in the systemic repricing of liquidity expectations. The “rate-cut premium” narrative that has supported risk assets over the past two years is now effectively over. If inflation data fails to cool quickly, markets may increasingly begin pricing in future rate hikes, which would structurally pressure the valuation multiples of high-risk assets. Consecutive net outflows from BTC ETFs (approximately -$980 million combined on May 18–19) already reflect institutional investors’ growing caution toward macro risks.

Notably, incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has previously been viewed as relatively open toward digital assets, with policy preferences potentially differing from Jerome Powell’s. However, within an increasingly hawkish FOMC environment, whether Warsh’s personal stance can translate into actual policy easing remains highly uncertain. Investors should closely monitor upcoming June CPI data and the policy signals from Warsh’s first public remarks.

SpaceX Officially Files for IPO, Discloses Holdings of 18,712 BTC

On May 21, SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 registration statement to the SEC, planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker “SPCX.” Underwriters include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase.

The filing revealed that as of December 31, 2025, SpaceX held 18,712 BTC with a total acquisition cost of approximately $661 million, implying an average purchase price of around $35,000 per BTC. This makes SpaceX the world’s seventh-largest corporate BTC holder, behind entities such as Strategy, 21 Capital, Metaplanet, MARA Holdings, Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, and Bullish.

Financially, SpaceX reported Q1 2026 revenue of $4.694 billion and an operating loss of $1.943 billion. Its AI division contributed $818 million in quarterly revenue, while active users across the past 12 months exceeded 1.3 billion. Elon Musk will continue to retain 85.1% voting control following the IPO.

The public disclosure of SpaceX’s BTC holdings represents one of the most bullish developments for the crypto market today. First, both Tesla (holding approximately 10,500 BTC) and SpaceX (holding 18,712 BTC) now officially include BTC on their corporate balance sheets, further strengthening the legitimacy of the “Bitcoin corporate treasury” narrative and likely accelerating broader corporate interest in BTC allocation strategies. Second, with an average acquisition cost near $35,000 compared to the current market price around $78,000, SpaceX is sitting on unrealized gains exceeding $800 million, reinforcing the long-term value narrative for BTC bulls. Third, as the IPO attracts substantial attention from traditional institutional investors, disclosure of SpaceX’s BTC exposure may further expand Bitcoin awareness among non-crypto-native investors and support broader mainstream adoption.

SpaceX also disclosed plans to deploy orbital AI computing satellites by 2028 while continuing long-term exploration into lunar and Martian economies, payment systems, and financial infrastructure — signaling a gradual convergence between space technology narratives and Web3 ecosystems.

Hyperliquid FDV Surpasses Solana as Grayscale and Anchorage Accumulate Over $165 Million Worth of HYPE for Staking

On May 21, Hyperliquid token HYPE surged above $55 intraday, pushing Hyperliquid’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) to $54.107 billion, briefly surpassing Solana at $54.082 billion.

According to on-chain monitoring data, two wallets associated with Grayscale Investments accumulated 510,387 HYPE (worth approximately $24.95 million) over the past week and staked the entire amount. Meanwhile, wallets linked to Anchorage Digital withdrew a total of 2.527 million HYPE (worth around $140 million) from Gate and other CEXs over the past month, with all purchased tokens likewise transferred into staking.

On the same day, a representative tied to a well-known “BTC OG insider whale” opened a 5x leveraged BTC long position on Hyperliquid with a notional value of approximately $59.11 million and a liquidation price near $62,656, while simultaneously purchasing 42,524 HYPE (worth roughly $2.33 million). Meanwhile, the market’s largest HYPE bull continues to maintain a 5x leveraged long position involving 1.38 million HYPE, with unrealized profits exceeding $22 million.

The underlying driver behind Hyperliquid’s latest rally is the structural combination of “institutional strategic accumulation + supply compression through staking.” Grayscale had already filed an S-1 registration for a HYPE ETF back in January, and its continued on-chain accumulation and staking activity now serves as a direct confirmation of that ETF narrative. The staking mechanism further removes purchased tokens from circulating supply, creating a dual-layer supply squeeze.

At the same time, Anchorage’s aggressive accumulation as a regulated institutional custodian signals that institutional conviction in Hyperliquid extends beyond ordinary portfolio allocation and reflects stronger long-term strategic positioning. From a broader macro perspective, capital appears to be rotating away from generic Layer 1 narratives and toward application-layer protocols with real revenue generation.

However, risks remain significant. Concentrated 5x leveraged positioning among several large holders, the potential return of supply if institutional buying slows, and HYPE’s inherently high volatility all remain key variables investors should continue monitoring closely.

Focus of the Week

ETF Flows Weaken in the Short Term, but Existing AUM Remains Elevated

On May 20, Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $9 million in daily net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs saw around $1.6 million in net outflows. Solana ETFs were essentially flat, indicating that institutional capital remains cautious in the short term, with limited willingness to increase allocations. Combined with recent flow histogram changes, the current capital rhythm resembles “defensive rebalancing during high-level consolidation” rather than a clear new round of trend-driven accumulation.

However, from the perspective of existing scale, BTC ETF AUM still stands at approximately $100.507 billion, while ETH ETF AUM remains around $13.258 billion. Existing institutional core positions have not shown significant weakening. In other words, short-term flow fluctuations mainly reflect trading-level risk management rather than a reversal of long-term allocation logic. If subsequent macro disturbances weaken and prices reclaim key moving averages, ETFs may once again become a marginal source of incremental demand for major tokens.

Stablecoin Supply Consolidates at High Levels as USDT Dominance Continues to Strengthen

Total stablecoin market capitalization currently stands at approximately $323.112 billion, with a seven-day net increase of around $96.07 million (+0.03%), continuing the trend of “slow expansion at high levels.” This indicates that on-chain USD liquidity has not contracted, and the market still possesses relatively strong settlement and absorption capacity. Although short-term growth remains modest, such “moderate net inflows” themselves represent a relatively stable signal amid increased volatility in risk assets.

Structurally, USDT market share stands at approximately 58.69%, while USDC accounts for around 23.84%, with concentration among top stablecoins remaining high. This structure suggests that in uncertain environments, capital still prefers assets with high liquidity and strong network effects, further reinforcing the role of “top-tier stablecoins as market liquidity anchors.” For trading markets, this is generally supportive of maintaining depth in mainstream assets, but also implies that risk appetite has not yet fully spilled over into long-tail assets.

RWA Scale Continues to Expand as On-Chain Real-World Assets Enter a Deeper Growth Phase

Current RWA perpetual futures open interest stands at approximately $3.143 billion, while total asset issuers have reached 177, indicating that RWAs are gradually transitioning from an early narrative phase toward a stage of “scale expansion + multi-party participation.” In particular, the total market value curve has risen significantly over the past year, reflecting sustained investment from institutions and project teams into on-chain real-world asset infrastructure.

From the perspective of asset composition, gold- and bond-related tokens still account for the core weighting, indicating that current RWA growth remains primarily driven by low-volatility, easily priced, and compliance-friendly underlying assets. This path is conducive to first establishing sustainable cash flow and credit foundations before expanding toward higher-risk and more complex structures. The medium-term market implication is that RWAs are not merely a standalone thematic trade, but may become a key bridge connecting traditional asset yields with on-chain liquidity, while gradually reshaping the collaborative relationship among stablecoins, DeFi, and institutional allocation.

Funding Weekly Recap

According to RootData, between May 15, 2026 and May 21, 2026, a total of 23 crypto and related projects announced completed financing rounds or mergers and acquisitions, covering multiple sectors including payment trading platforms, infrastructure, and ecosystem expansion. Below are brief introductions to the largest financing projects of the week:

Dunamu

On May 15, Dunamu disclosed the completion of a $667 million financing round at a valuation of approximately $10 billion, with Hana Financial participating as the investor.

The combination of large-scale financing and high valuation reflects that traditional financial institutions continue to strengthen recognition of the long-term value of leading crypto platforms. For platform companies, such capital not only supports business expansion, but also helps strengthen compliance capabilities, institutional service systems, and cross-market collaboration, thereby improving competitiveness during the next phase of industry consolidation.

SendCutSend

On May 20, SendCutSend disclosed the completion of a $110 million financing round, with investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital.

The participation of top-tier crypto and traditional venture capital firms demonstrates that market capital remains highly focused on early- and mid-stage projects with technological scalability and ecosystem connectivity. In the current environment, where fundamentals and product execution efficiency are increasingly emphasized, such financing is generally viewed as a forward-looking signal of institutional positioning for the next growth cycle.

Gemini

On May 15, Gemini disclosed the completion of a $100 million strategic financing round, led by Winklevoss Capital.

The strategic financing nature indicates that the funds are intended more for long-term capability building rather than simple scale expansion. Combined with the market’s continued demand for compliant trading, custody, and institutionalized services, Gemini’s financing pace reflects how leading platforms are strengthening product matrices and business resilience through capital reinforcement to prepare for future market volatility and intensified competition.

Next Week to Watch

Token Unlocks

According to Tokenomist data, over the next seven days (2026-05-22 to 2026-05-28), approximately $84.92 million worth of token unlocks will enter the market. Overall short-term pressure appears somewhat more manageable compared with previous market concerns, though certain projects still warrant close attention. The top three unlocks are as follows:

• H will unlock approximately $27.18 million worth of tokens over the next seven days, accounting for 5.8% of circulating supply.

• HUMA will unlock approximately $10.04 million worth of tokens over the next seven days, accounting for 26.5% of circulating supply.

• MBG will unlock approximately $8.34 million worth of tokens over the next seven days, accounting for 11.0% of circulating supply.

References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT

• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data

• DeFiLlama, https://defillama.com/stablecoins

• Etherscan, https://etherscan.io/gastracker

• Coingecoko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap

• The Block, https://www.theblock.co/post/383595/tom-lees-bitmine-88-million-eth

• The Block, https://www.theblock.co/post/383711/polymarket-third-party-vulnerability-hack

• Coindesk, https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/12/24/trump-media-shuffles-2-000-btc-after-fresh-bitcoin-inflows

• Rootdata, https://www.rootdata.com/Fundraising

• Tokenomist, https://tokenomist.ai/

• X, https://x.com/lookonchain/status/2057271757049085962

• Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/bound-mars-elon-musks-spacex-unveils-filing-blockbuster-ipo-2026-05-20

• X, https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2057159476088615391

Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides deep content for readers, including technical analysis, market insights, industry research, trend forecasting, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Disclaimer

Investing in cryptocurrency markets involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct their own research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from such decisions.