Stablecoins Are Winning. The Rest of Crypto Is Running Out of Time.

TOTALES confirmed strong bearish as stablecoin dominance printed a TBO close long and stayed above the cloud. BTC is in consolidation but the slow line still points lower.

Bitcoin dropped to $74,289 on Saturday. That is the number that gets the most attention. But it is not really where the story starts.

TOTALES, which tracks the total crypto market cap without stablecoins, closed below the cloud on Friday. According to MooninPapa on X, that close marked a pivot into strong bearish territory. A bump of 1.67% on Saturday did not change the reading. The index stayed below the cloud.

The Signal Nobody Wanted to See: TOTALES Goes Dark

Bitcoin itself closed back inside the cloud on Saturday. That technically puts it in bullish consolidation. The market read that as a recovery. It is not really a recovery.

The slow line, the longest of four moving averages tracked by the TBO indicator, is still pointing down. It has been pointing down. Per MooninPapa’s YouTube market update, the macro trend has not shifted. A weekend bounce without a clean RSI reset, with short-term support already pierced, does not change what the cloud is saying.

Ethereum put in a lower low. RSI confirmed it. No bullish engulfing candle printed on Saturday. MooninPapa’s target for ETH remains a retest of previously lost support, followed by a drop to $1,000. He was not softening that call.

The weekend wick on BTC is being described as a prediction wick. The logic is simple: a deep wick to the downside, after the order book has been cleaned out, tells you where the chart is going next. Not up. MooninPapa called it a signal for lower prices, not a reversal.

Why Stablecoin Dominance Climbing Is the Real Problem for Altcoins

Combined stablecoin dominance printed a TBO close long over the weekend. It stayed strong bullish above the cloud Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. MooninPapa said on X he expects it to push higher from here.

That matters because stablecoin dominance rising means money is leaving risk assets. It is not sitting at the edge of the pool. It is getting out of the water. Altcoins may not survive the next leg of this move, per earlier analysis tracking the same setup.

BTC dominance reclaimed the top of the cloud on Sunday. That sounds fine. MooninPapa flagged an increasing chance that it drops toward 60%, which would create a false sense of safety for OTHERS.D right before a drop. He was specific about that sequence.

TOTAL100.D confirmed its first-ever TBO close long. The entire segment it represents, everything outside the top 100 by market cap, accounts for 0.31% of total crypto market cap. That is the number. Not a percentage worth trading around.

On the TradFi side, the DXY gapped down and MooninPapa expects a snap back to close the gap at 99.172. S&P futures are back to overbought but remain strong bullish. The Nikkei opened up 2.79%. Oil dropped below support on news, with a gap fill target sitting at $68. Gold is still strong bearish. Silver is bouncing toward the fast line.

Individual picks from the review were mostly bearish. SOL printed a TBO open short. ADA confirmed a three-in-a-row TBO breakdown on the 4-hour. ARB is down 10% since the warning posted eight days ago. PEPE’s short signal is already up 6%. NEAR printed a massive breakout but the weekly close short means MooninPapa is waiting for a 31% pullback to $162 before entering.

HYPE is strong bullish but RSI put in a lower high. That is the kind of divergence that tends to precede a reversal, not confirm a run. VVV is the cleanest bullish chart in the batch, all four TBO lines in agreement and pointing higher.

The broader read from MooninPapa’s analysis has not changed. He said directly on X: he is still net bearish on the space. The cloud on TOTALES is not a technicality. It is the read. And the question of how low TOTALES can go keeps getting more uncomfortable.