April 13, 2026 marked the end of a two-week Easter recess for the U.S. Senate, with lawmakers returning to a full legislative agenda. At the same time, a once-dormant piece of crypto legislation was thrust back into the spotlight—the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (CLARITY Act). In the week prior, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, crypto industry leaders, and active members of Congress ramped up public pressure on lawmakers to accelerate the legislative process. This moment represents the most pivotal window for Senate deliberation since the bill passed the House with overwhelming support in July 2025. At the heart of this legislative battle, the mechanism for distributing stablecoin yields has become the central point of contention, with its outcome likely to determine the bill’s ultimate fate.
Legislative Sprint: Senate Reconvenes Amid Intensifying Pressure
On April 13, 2026 (local time), the U.S. Senate reconvened after its Easter recess, resuming full session. The CLARITY Act entered the final stretch of the Senate’s legislative process. The Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a markup session in the latter half of April to review, amend, and vote on the bill. If approved, the bill will proceed to the full Senate for consideration.
Procedurally, the bill faces five critical steps: Banking Committee markup, full Senate passage with at least 60 votes, reconciliation with the Agriculture Committee’s version, coordination with the House version passed in July 2025, and finally, submission for presidential signature. Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn noted that if the bill fails to clear committee in April, the odds of completing legislation in 2026 drop to "extremely low."
Multiple stakeholders continue to intensify their efforts to advance the bill. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant urged Congress to pass the legislation. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly voiced support for the bill on April 10, stating, "Now is the time to pass the CLARITY Act," marking a shift from his opposition in January. Meanwhile, Circle’s stock surged 12.09% on April 13, reflecting market optimism about legislative progress.
Stalemate and Breakthrough: From House Passage to Senate Negotiations
On July 17, 2025, the CLARITY Act passed the House with a strong majority—294 in favor, 134 against. Notably, 78 Democratic members supported the bill, far surpassing previous bipartisan levels for similar legislation. That same day, the GENIUS Act was signed into law by the President, establishing a federal regulatory framework for dollar-backed payment stablecoins. The CLARITY Act, along with the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, was then sent to the Senate.
Following House passage, markets anticipated Senate approval before Thanksgiving 2025. However, ongoing disputes over the stablecoin yield payment mechanism led to repeated delays in the Senate Banking Committee. In January 2026, a scheduled markup session was canceled, stalling the legislative process. That month, Bitwise data showed the probability of CLARITY Act passage on Polymarket plummeted from 80% to 50%, reflecting industry concerns about the bill’s prospects.
A breakthrough emerged in mid-March 2026, when Senators Thom Tillis (Republican) and Angela Alsobrooks (Democrat) reached a principled agreement with the White House on stablecoin yields, ending months of deadlock. Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Digital Asset Presidential Advisory Committee, stated that negotiations were nearing completion, with several major differences resolved.
The current legislative window is extremely tight. Congress will recess for Memorial Day starting May 21. If the bill fails to make critical progress in the Senate before then, the process could be swept into the political cycle of midterm elections. U.S. scholar Yuan Zhao Sun analyzed that if the bill is not passed before the summer recess (by August), "it will likely be stillborn."
Data Perspective: Vote Dynamics, Market Size, and Volatility
As of now, the U.S. Senate is composed of 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). Major legislation typically requires 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles. This means that even with full Republican support, 7 to 10 Democratic votes are needed for bipartisan passage. Historical precedent: The GENIUS Act passed the Senate in June 2025 with a 68–30 vote, demonstrating broad bipartisan support. If the CLARITY Act can replicate this consensus, the 60-vote threshold is achievable.
As of April 2026, global stablecoin market capitalization reached approximately $318.6 billion, up more than 150% from about $125 billion at the start of 2024. The GENIUS Act’s federal framework for payment stablecoins, effective mid-2025, directly fueled explosive institutional adoption. Citi predicts that with clear regulatory pathways, global stablecoin market cap will grow from $230 billion in 2025 to $1.6 trillion by 2030.
On prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 has fluctuated sharply in recent months: dropping from 80% in early January to 50%, rebounding to 72% after White House intervention in March, and consolidating between 63% and 66% in early April. Notably, a Columbia University study found that roughly 25% of Polymarket’s trading volume may involve wash trading, so its probability data should be interpreted with caution.
According to Gate market data as of April 14, 2026, the Bitcoin price is $74,440.7, with a 24-hour trading volume of $369.66 million, a market cap of $1.33 trillion, and a 24-hour price change of +4.86%. The Ethereum price is $2,365.16, with a 24-hour trading volume of $195.32 million, a market cap of $271.24 billion, and a 24-hour price change of +7.78%. The timing of this market rebound closely coincides with renewed legislative optimism, underscoring the significant impact of regulatory expectations on digital asset prices.
Core Battleground: Stakeholder Positions and Compromises on Stablecoin Yields
U.S. banks have persistently lobbied Congress to prohibit stablecoin companies from offering interest-like returns akin to bank deposits. Their main concern is that allowing "passive yield" would divert traditional deposits, undermining banks’ core funding for loans to households and businesses. The American Bankers Association remains skeptical of the compromise reached, responding on April 14 that the White House’s report is flawed and insisting that stablecoin yields pose risks to community banks.
Crypto firms argue that incentives tied to payments, wallet usage, or network activity are essential for stablecoins to compete with traditional payment channels. For Circle, the final wording of the CLARITY Act will directly affect the valuation of its business model. Market estimates suggest that Coinbase’s stablecoin-related revenue accounts for about 20% of its total income, and its change of stance largely reflects confidence that incentive provisions will remain.
A White House Council of Economic Advisers report released April 8 concluded that a blanket ban on passive yield would offer limited real protection for bank deposit stability—politically, this provided justification for a compromise. The report showed that the proposed ban would increase U.S. bank lending by only $2.1 billion, or 0.02%, undermining the banking sector’s lobbying rationale.
The Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise framework now centers on prohibiting crypto platforms from paying interest on mere stablecoin balances, while permitting activity-based incentives and rewards linked to payments and platform usage. Patrick Witt called this compromise a "major milestone," emphasizing that resolving stablecoin yield issues is a prerequisite for advancing the bill.
Narrative Analysis: Interpreting Predictions, Substitution Effects, and Shifting Positions
When interpreting market information, several key narratives warrant careful scrutiny:
First, Polymarket’s prediction data is useful for tracking shifts in market expectations, but Columbia University’s research found that about 25% of trading volume may involve wash trading, so its probabilities should not be equated with scientific forecasts.
Second, the banking industry’s narrative that stablecoin yields will massively divert deposits contrasts sharply with the White House Council of Economic Advisers’ finding that bank lending would increase only 0.02%. This discrepancy highlights the importance of distinguishing between political lobbying rhetoric and empirical data when evaluating the controversy.
Finally, Coinbase’s shift from "better no bill than a bad bill" in January to public endorsement in April has been interpreted by some observers as acceptance of the compromise. However, given that stablecoin-related revenue comprises about 20% of its total income, this position clearly reflects commercial interests.
Structural Impact: How Passage Would Reshape the Crypto Industry
If the CLARITY Act passes, its most profound effect will be to clearly delineate the jurisdictional boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The bill would transfer primary oversight of spot crypto trading to the CFTC, legally resolving longstanding regulatory overlap. Compared to the SEC’s aggressive enforcement under the Biden administration, this shift could substantially reduce compliance uncertainty for crypto firms.
Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn predicts that passage would serve as a major bullish catalyst for crypto adoption. Bitwise expects that if a workable version of the CLARITY Act passes, the market will rally sharply, as investors quickly price in greater certainty for blockchain finance.
The final wording of the yield provisions will directly impact the business models of stablecoin companies like Circle and Coinbase. If the Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise is enshrined in law, Circle could maintain a reward ecosystem based on USDC usage within a compliant framework, preserving its appeal to both institutional and retail users. Conversely, if banks succeed in narrowing the definition of activity incentives at the last minute, Circle’s revenue structure could face direct compression.
Over the long term, sustained growth in crypto asset management depends on a clear regulatory framework. If the CLARITY Act fails, Benchmark analysis suggests the U.S. crypto market will face "structural constraints," with large-scale institutional inflows significantly hindered.
Scenario Analysis: Four Legislative Outcomes from Passage to Delay
Scenario 1: Bill Passes Smoothly
The core assumption is that the Senate Banking Committee clears the bill in late April, both parties reach final agreement on stablecoin yield provisions, and the full Senate votes with 60+ in favor. This would establish a U.S. crypto regulatory framework with "GENIUS Act + CLARITY Act + Anti-CBDC Act" as a three-layer structure. Institutional capital would accelerate entry, stablecoin market cap could break $400 billion in the second half of 2026, and confidence in digital assets would be significantly restored.
Scenario 2: Bill Delayed Until After Midterms
The core assumption is that the late-April markup session yields limited progress without a final vote, prolonging the legislative process amid political wrangling. The crypto industry would continue to face regulatory uncertainty. Bitwise’s "three-year window" logic comes into play: if the bill fails, the industry must drive mass adoption of stablecoins and tokenized assets to force regulatory action.
Scenario 3: Bill Rejected in the Senate
The core assumption is that stablecoin yield disputes flare up in the final stage, key Democratic senators withdraw support, and the bill fails to reach the 60-vote threshold. In the short term, market sentiment would take a hit, with digital asset prices likely to correct sharply. In the medium to long term, the industry could follow two paths: Congress redrafts a streamlined market structure bill, or gradual development occurs within the existing legal boundaries established by the GENIUS Act’s stablecoin framework.
Scenario 4: Bill Passes with Amendments
The core assumption is that the Senate passes a version with significant changes from the House, especially regarding stablecoin yield provisions and DeFi developer protections. This is the most likely scenario. The final version may retain the Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise on stablecoin yields. The market impact would fall between scenarios one and two—short-term positive effects from regulatory certainty may be tempered by some compromise clauses, but the legal infrastructure needed for institutional entry would still be established in the medium to long term.
Conclusion
Senate deliberation on the CLARITY Act is about more than the fate of a single bill—it marks a critical shift in U.S. crypto regulation from "enforcement-driven" to "legislation-driven." The passage of the GENIUS Act in 2025 proved that bipartisan consensus on crypto legislation is possible. Whether the CLARITY Act can sustain this momentum will be revealed in the coming weeks.
The debate over stablecoin yield distribution is, on the surface, a battle of interests between banks and the crypto industry. At a deeper level, it reflects a struggle for regulatory authority between the digital asset financial system and traditional banking. Regardless of the outcome, this legislative process has already profoundly reshaped the policy landscape for U.S. crypto. For market participants, understanding every detail of the legislative process is far more valuable than tracking short-term price swings.
As the regulatory framework becomes clearer, the digital asset market is undergoing a structural transformation from "wild growth" to "orderly development." The ultimate shape of this transformation will gradually emerge from the ongoing negotiations between the Senate, House, and White House.
