Retail Bitcoin is capitulating - Surprising the silent hero of the market

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a new all-time high of (ATH), nearly touching the threshold of 112,000 USD, marking an impressive milestone in the value journey of this cryptocurrency. This strong growth is not a random phenomenon but a result of a series of interrelated macro factors. The bullish trend has been maintained since the beginning of the month, with the significant involvement of large investors (whales), even as the market still witnesses sell-offs from retail investors.

Retail investors surrender?

According to data from Coinglass, in the past 24 hours, more than 119,602 traders have been liquidated, resulting in total losses of up to 540 million USD. The largest liquidation occurred on the HTX exchange, with a BTC-USDT transaction worth 51.56 million USD being wiped out.

This liquidation amount primarily stems from positions using high leverage in Short trades, reaching up to 470.98 million USD. This reflects the strong volatility of the market, even as the price of Bitcoin is breaking out.

Source: CoinglassNevertheless, the blockchain analysis company Santiment points out another noteworthy trend — the “capitulation” of retail investors. According to their data, Bitcoin wallets holding small amounts of BTC are gradually selling off and transferring to whales. This pattern, in the past, often signals the beginning of strong bullish rallies. Santiment notes:

“The price of Bitcoin often tends to rise sharply when the number of small wallets decreases and whales accumulate more.”

In fact, many retail investors have withdrawn recently, partly due to skepticism, and partly because of feelings of frustration or fear of being scammed. Ironically, this very withdrawal could be a sign of smart money coming into play. Analysts call this a “bullish rally driven by skepticism,” as the upward momentum continues despite the growing doubts in the market.

“In recent days, many retail investors have given up due to a lack of patience or loss of confidence. History shows that this is a clear indicator of an upcoming breakout, as the crypto market often goes against the expectations of the crowd.”

Michael Van de Poppe, a veteran trader and analyst, also agrees with this view in a recent article, emphasizing that most traders tend to have a pessimistic mindset when the market starts a bullish trend.

“When the bullish cycle begins, 99% of people still maintain a pessimistic attitude. You will continue to hear criticisms about the artificial growth of altcoins in the coming month. That is a characteristic phase of this cycle.”

Although Bitcoin has reached a new ATH and capital from ETFs continues to flow in, the overall sentiment in crypto communities and on social media remains quite cautious. Along with that, the Fear and Greed Index of cryptocurrency has started to lean towards “greed”, but has not yet reached a peak level of excitement.

Source: AlternativeAccording to analysts, when the FOMO phenomenon occurs, the number of investors participating will increase significantly, especially if altcoins start to catch up with the performance of Bitcoin. At that time, the difference between the current bullish trend and the skepticism of retail investors could be the catalyst for the next Bitcoin rally. And if history is any lesson, the skepticism of retail investors may be the catalyst for Bitcoin’s sustainable growth in the future.

Whales – The Silent Heroes of the Market

The current market sentiment for Bitcoin reflects a clear segmentation among investor groups. As mentioned above, retail investors, especially those holding between 1 and 10 BTC, are tending to sell, creating a large supply in the market and increasing price volatility.

However, a notable exception is the whales – investors who own between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. While the majority of the market is facing sell-off pressure, the whales are accumulating more Bitcoin, demonstrating a strategy opposite to the general trend. Their steadfastness and methodical approach help maintain the stability of Bitcoin’s value, even as retail investors are offloading their holdings.

Accumulation Point of Bitcoin Trend | Source: GlassnodeWhales have long become a stabilizing force in the Bitcoin market. Unlike retail investors, who often react quickly to short-term fluctuations, whales have a long-term vision and always adhere to a solid investment strategy. Instead of fearing temporary fluctuations, they actively accumulate and grow their assets in the long term.

This provides stability for the market, especially in the context of retail investors facing pressure and tending to sell off when prices drop. The participation of whales helps keep Bitcoin’s price from plummeting too sharply, laying the groundwork for the recent recovery and bullish trend.

Another factor to mention is the change in net positions on exchanges. Since the beginning of July, more than 52,048 BTC, worth approximately 5.7 billion USD, have been sold from the wallets of exchanges. Although this sell-off usually creates significant pressure, pushing Bitcoin’s price down, the continuous accumulation by whales has helped to balance this negative impact. They continue to hold their positions, thereby ensuring that Bitcoin maintains a sustainable growth trajectory.

The fact that whales continue to accumulate despite sell-offs from retail investors shows the stability of the Bitcoin market and is a key factor in maintaining investor confidence. The optimistic sentiment has been restored, and the market is showing strong signs of recovery.

Bitcoin: Change in net position on the exchange | Source: GlassnodeOverall, the accumulation of whales plays an important role in shaping the long-term trend of Bitcoin. Their strategic moves not only help to ease short-term volatility but also create the necessary stability for the market. Despite selling pressure from retail investors, whales continue to play their role as market stabilizers and help Bitcoin maintain its position.

Thanks to the patience and long-term vision of the whales, the price of Bitcoin may continue to maintain its bullish momentum in the coming time, opening up opportunities for stronger recoveries.

Lilly