Multiple market analysts believe that the likelihood of the “comprehensive alts season” familiar to investors occurring in 2026 is decreasing, and the crypto market may enter a new phase of high differentiation. Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx Research, pointed out that in the next round of market trends, only “blue-chip encryption assets” with real adoption rates, long-term narratives, and liquidity foundations will be able to continuously attract funds.
Ko stated that retail investors expecting a broad rise in all alts may feel disappointed. He believes that the market characteristics in 2026 will be “selective liquidity,” with funds only flowing to projects that are widely accepted by the market and have clear fundamentals, rather than low-quality or purely speculative tokens. This judgment suggests that the past market rotations in alts driven by emotions may be difficult to replicate.
At the macro level, Ko expects the global liquidity environment to improve slightly in 2026, but the divergence in central bank policies will limit the overall degree of easing. He also pointed out that since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024, the correlation between Bitcoin prices and the growth of M2 money supply is weakening, and the traditional macro transmission logic is no longer as effective as it was in the past. Based on this judgment, CoinEx Research's target price for Bitcoin in 2026 is $180,000.
However, market opinions are not unified. Veteran trader Peter Brandt holds a more cautious view. He reviewed the cyclical trends of Bitcoin over the past 15 years and pointed out that each round of exponential increases is often accompanied by at least an 80% deep retracement. Brandt believes that the current cycle has not truly ended, but the next significant bull market peak may not occur until 2029, which aligns closely with the “four-year cycle theory” of peaking a year after the halving.
If historical patterns repeat, a significant correction of Bitcoin cannot be ruled out before this, and in extreme cases, the price may fall back to around $25,000. This has also sparked discussions in the market about whether the “four-year cycle is failing.”
Historically, Bitcoin usually performs strongly in the fourth quarter, but this quarter it has fallen by more than 22%, becoming the second worst fourth-quarter performance in history. Some institutions believe that this deep adjustment helps to clear high-risk positions and lays the foundation for the next stage of the market.
Overall, the crypto market in 2026 is more likely to show a “stronger gets stronger” pattern. Bitcoin and a few blue-chip alts may dominate the flow of funds, while projects lacking fundamental support face a more severe survival test. This trend holds significant reference value for investors focused on long-term value and risk management.
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