Xuanfeng Group increases stake in Metaplanet stock, Bitcoin Treasury Company overcomes difficult period?

Article by: Blockchain Knight

Vanguard’s holdings in Metaplanet increased by 11% from the end of November to the end of December, sparking speculation about whether they are optimistic about the DAT strategy. However, this move is not a proactive bullish signal but a mechanical adjustment tracking the index.

Metaplanet’s share in its fund is less than 0.01%. The change in position results from its market capitalization increase leading to a higher index weight, unrelated to Vanguard’s attitude toward DAT assets.

What truly warrants attention is whether the fundamentals driving DAT’s valuation have shown substantial improvement. This requires analysis from core indicators such as market net asset value (mNAV), Bitcoin accumulation pace, and other dimensions.

mNAV is a key metric for assessing DAT’s health. When this indicator exceeds 1, the company can realize shareholder value appreciation through issuing shares to buy tokens. When below 1, dilution destroys value, and the strategy should shift toward capital preservation.

As of mid-January, the performance of mNAV among leading Bitcoin treasury operators showed significant divergence: Metaplanet traded at a 1.37x premium and continued to increase Bitcoin holdings on December 30, indicating that the share issuance flywheel remains effective.

Strategy’s mNAV is 0.93, and although it continues to accumulate BTC, short-term share issuance could cause shareholder dilution. Semler’s mNAV is as low as 0.88; since October, it has paused buying tokens and shifted toward capital discipline management.

This divergence stems from market perceptions of risk and operational differences among companies. Metaplanet benefits from being outside US regulation and having a simple balance sheet, which grants it a valuation premium.

While Strategy’s accumulation is aggressive, complex convertible bond structures and market skepticism about catalysts lead to its discounted trading.

Valuations of targets like MARA and Coinbase are influenced by mining operations and non-crypto revenue, differing from pure DAT logic, which also highlights the limitations of treating DAT as a homogeneous asset class.

The core logic of DAT relies on the flywheel effect when mNAV exceeds 1. When this indicator falls below 1, the share issuance to buy tokens mode becomes invalid.

Strategy’s continued accumulation despite discounts is a bet on a subsequent rebound in stock prices or a consideration for long-term holdings.

Metaplanet, with its premium mNAV, can continuously expand its balance sheet without trade-offs; Semler’s pause in buying tokens is a rational capital allocation choice under discounted conditions.

The current market does not represent an overall recovery of the DAT industry; only some targets demonstrate strength. True industry recovery requires three conditions:

1. Leading operators generally expanding their mNAV,
2. Bitcoin accumulation pace continuing to accelerate,
3. The equity market rewarding DAT models with valuation premiums.

Currently, only a few operators outside the US, such as Metaplanet, with healthy balance sheets, meet the premium conditions. The discount of Strategy and the pause in Semler’s accumulation reflect that the market has not yet achieved widespread recognition of the DAT model.

The Bitcoin treasury stock sector has shown a clear split pattern. Industry trends are no longer driven solely by overall market movements but depend more on the specific operations, regulatory environment, and balance sheet conditions of individual companies. The so-called full industry recovery of DAT may not have arrived yet.