Has the Bitcoin crash not ended? The "coal mine canary" indicator proves that the winter has passed

Bitcoin Mining “Canary” Indicator Shows Relief: NFCI -0.590, STLFSI4 -0.651, MOVE 56.12 All Below Warning Levels. However, the Ministry of Finance’s TGA has risen to 869 billion in liquidity withdrawals, reserves have fallen to 2.955 trillion, and ETF outflows amount to 102.8 million USD. The canary is not down, but the airflow has shifted.

The Five Major Canary Indicators Show Breathing Room in the Mining Air

In January, indicators related to liquidity, credit, and interest rate volatility all fell below stress thresholds, as changes occurred in Treasury cash balances and Bitcoin ETF capital flows. Data from the Chicago Federal Reserve shows that as of the week ending January 16, 2026, the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) was -0.590, and the Adjusted NFCI (ANFCI) was -0.586.

According to data reported by the Chicago Fed via FRED, both readings are below zero, which traders interpret as signs of tightening financing and leverage restrictions. Using the canary metaphor, this is like the difference between a vigilant, singing bird and a bird struggling to breathe: below zero indicates that the “air” for financing and leverage remains easier than average. In other words, the current financial environment for Bitcoin mining and the overall crypto market is still “breathable,” and systemic risks have not yet accumulated to dangerous levels.

Based on data from the St. Louis Fed’s FRED series STLFSI4, another commonly used composite index for assessing market tension—the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index—also recorded -0.651 that week. If NFCI is the ventilation report for the mine, then STLFSI4 is the canary’s posture check; it is still perched, still very stable, showing no signs of the wobbling typically seen before larger stress events.

Interest rate volatility (which can transmit re-pricing through positions and collateral mechanisms to markets like stocks, credit, and crypto) also remains subdued. According to historical data from Investing.com, the ICE BofA MOVE index closed at 56.12 on January 27, 2026. Even if other key indicators appear stable, persistent rises in interest rate volatility are often viewed as a sign of broader deleveraging.

Using the mine analogy, MOVE is less like a “gas detector” and more like a vibration alarm—something that signals the movement of the ceiling before it actually shifts. Currently, it is just humming softly. Credit pricing remains aligned with this relatively steady baseline. Data on option-adjusted spreads (OAS) published by ICE BofA via FRED show that as of January 26, 2026, U.S. high-yield bonds had an OAS of 2.69, investment-grade (IG) bonds 0.74, and BBB-rated bonds 0.94.

These levels do not reflect widespread re-pricing of default risk. In other words, the credit market is not issuing warnings: risk premiums seem controlled, and lenders are not demanding “panic pricing” protections. For Bitcoin mining companies, this means the financing environment remains friendly, allowing them to easily obtain loans or issue bonds to expand hash rate.

Current Status of the Five Major Canary Indicators

NFCI/ANFCI: -0.590 / -0.586 (Loose financing conditions, canary singing)

STLFSI4: -0.651 (Composite stress easing, canary stable)

MOVE Index: 56.12 (Low interest rate volatility, calm vibration alarm)

Credit Spreads: High-yield 2.69, IG 0.74, BBB 0.94 (No panic in credit)

ETF Capital Flows: -102.8 million USD daily outflow (Canary begins to fluctuate)

Subtle Airflow Changes in Liquidity Channels

Macro variables that Bitcoin traders focus on are not the comprehensive stress indicators but the variables within liquidity channels. If the main indicators are the “big” safety signals of the mine, then these variables are like the subtle airflow felt in the tunnel before smoke appears. Fed balance sheet data shows that as of January 21, 2026, total assets stood at 6.585 trillion USD, roughly unchanged, indicating that quantitative tightening has paused but not reversed.

In the same week, the Treasury General Account (TGA) increased from 779 billion USD to 869 billion USD, while reserves decreased from 3.050 trillion USD to 2.955 trillion USD. Increasing cash reserves in the Treasury pulls deposits and reserves from the banking system, tightening available liquidity even if overall market stress indicators remain calm. To use the analogy, the canary is still singing, but the bird handler has sensed airflow shifting.

Other limiting factors include the lack of large overnight RRP (reverse repurchase agreement) balances to absorb fluctuations in Treasury cash and collateral demand. As of January 27, 2026, overnight RRP balances stood at 125.3 million USD, near zero. Since this level is close to zero compared to earlier periods, changes in cash and reserves more directly impact marginal financing conditions. This is not alarmist but indicates that the mine’s buffer capacity is less than before. For Bitcoin miners, tightening liquidity could raise financing costs and compress profit margins.

ETF Capital Flows: The Most Sensitive Canary

Beyond these systemic variables, the market flow indicator most directly related to Bitcoin is the creation and redemption cycle of US-listed Bitcoin ETFs. According to Farside Investors, the net inflow on January 27, 2026, was -102.8 million USD, with a five-day net inflow of about -567.5 million USD on January 21, 22, 23, 26, and 27. As a reference, since launch through January 28, 2026, the total net inflow has been approximately 62.816 billion USD.

If credit and interest rate volatility are the structural sensors of the mine, then ETF capital flows are the canary most directly related to Bitcoin’s daily oxygen supply. Recent outflows do not necessarily indicate systemic stress but do suggest market volatility, with traders closely monitoring whether the situation stabilizes or worsens. For Bitcoin miners, ETF outflows imply waning institutional demand, which could suppress prices and impact mining profitability.

Since key indicators remain below their stress thresholds, the recent focus is on whether the Chicago Fed index will approach zero next week, whether STLFSI4 accelerates toward zero, whether the MOVE index continues to rise toward 80-100, and whether high-yield spreads persistently climb toward around 4%. During these moments, the behavior of the birds shifts from “background chirping” to signals of changing mining conditions.

The MOVE index is often the earliest warning signal, capturing sudden re-pricing in Treasury prices that could propagate through positions and collateral mechanisms into stocks, credit, and crypto markets. Credit spreads, especially high-yield OAS, are another rapidly changing stress valve: widening spreads indicate risk premiums are re-pricing, and market signals are no longer “normal.”

In the Bitcoin mining context, ETF subscription and redemption flows are likely the clearest reflection of risk appetite the next day. If capital flows are positive and the MOVE index and spreads remain stable, then this “canary” has withstood the test and may even signal a market recovery, suggesting that the spring for Bitcoin mining could be near.