Gate Research Institute: The crypto market continues to oscillate with a defensive stance, with structural funds shifting towards highly elastic small-cap assets

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

From January 13 to January 26, 2026, amid escalating efforts by Trump to acquire Greenland and using additional 10% tariffs on multiple countries as bargaining chips, market concerns over growth, inflation, and geopolitical risks intensified. Risk aversion spread, the US dollar weakened, and global risk assets came under pressure, leading the crypto market to adopt a defensive stance. In terms of technicals, BTC faced resistance during a 4-hour rebound and weakened again, breaking below short-term moving averages and trading below mid-term averages, shifting from consolidation to a bearish bias; ETH showed even weaker performance, remaining below MA30 and forming a bearish alignment.【1】

On-chain and ecosystem levels, funds showed a defensive reflow, with Ethereum becoming the main recipient, net inflows approaching $350 million. Meanwhile, high-leverage active networks like Hyperliquid and StarkNet experienced large net outflows, indicating a clear cooling of derivatives risk appetite. Fundamentally, Solana’s staking ratio rose to 68.8%, hitting a new high, while the Ethereum community advanced DVT native integration to strengthen decentralization. Some sectors, such as prediction markets, intensified traffic competition through “points + zero fee” models.

Overall, macro uncertainty continues to dominate market rhythm, with crypto assets exhibiting a defensive structure of “mainstream weakening, funds returning to main chains, and leverage shrinking.” Short-term holders of Bitcoin have been generally in unrealized loss zones since November 2025. A return above $98,000 could be key for sentiment recovery. Structural opportunities still exist but are limited to a few assets with clear fundamentals or event catalysts. The overall market remains in a phase of macro-driven rotation.

Full Panorama of Price Fluctuation Data

This report groups and analyzes the top 500 tokens by market cap, observing their average gains during January 13 to January 26.

Market cap structure shows clear differentiation: the top 400 tokens experienced slight corrections (around -3% to -6%), with declines slightly increasing as market cap decreases, reflecting ongoing but orderly capital outflows from mainstream and mid-cap assets during risk aversion; meanwhile, the 401–500 segment saw an average increase of 12.28%, the only group with positive returns, indicating capital shifting toward high-elasticity small-cap assets, with short-term trading sentiment heating up.

In summary, this cycle is not a systemic decline but a structural rotation characterized by “market defense and small-cap activity.” Mainstream assets remain weak but manageable, while small-cap assets show significant capital-driven movements, shifting market style toward high Beta sectors and marginal risk appetite recovery.

Note: Market cap distribution is based on CoinGecko data, grouping the top 500 tokens into segments of 100 (e.g., ranks 1–100, 101–200, etc.), calculating the price change during January 13–26 within each group, and averaging these to produce the mean gain indicator for each market cap segment. The overall average decline (-1.16%) is the unweighted mean of individual top 500 token returns.

Figure 1: Small-cap segment significantly outperforms, while large-cap assets are generally weak; market shows clear layered rotation

Top and Bottom Movers

Over the past two weeks (Jan 13–Jan 26), amidst overall volatility, a clear differentiation among tokens emerged, with capital flowing into high-elasticity themes, and small-cap and community-driven assets experiencing amplified fluctuations.

Gainers: Community-driven meme assets lead the rally, with PENGUIN as the biggest dark horse

The top gainer is PENGUIN (+1,384.28%). This project is a Solana ecosystem meme coin featuring the “Nietzschean Penguin” community image, combining philosophical meme culture with native crypto humor, possessing strong dissemination and community cohesion. Its social media activity surged in late January, with increased posts of official links, community portals, and branding visuals, attracting new attention and capital inflows.

The rally was driven mainly by three factors:

• Enhanced community mobilization — project team strengthened brand recognition and integrated official portals, lowering barriers for new users;
• High elasticity of small-cap — with a small circulating supply, it is more easily driven by short-term capital when no clear trend dominates;
• Meme rotation window — during weak phases of mainstream assets, some funds shift to high Beta, sentiment-driven targets seeking excess returns.

Other top gainers also show “small-to-mid cap + theme-driven” features, such as RIVER (+267.65%), AXS (+115.53%), SKR (+112.96%), and DUSK (+108.69%), often catalyzed by events, narrative repair, or capital inflows, indicating active structural opportunities during volatility.

Losers: High-volatility themes retrace, speculative sentiment cools rapidly

On the downside, SHMEEGUS (-100%) nearly completely lost its market cap, reflecting the high risk of extremely small meme assets during liquidity downturns. MERL (-58.38%), VSN (-40.55%), FOGO (-39.36%), and others also saw sharp declines, mostly in assets with prior large gains and high liquidity dependence. Overall, the losers are mostly short-term sentiment-driven, with rapid corrections lacking sustained capital support.

This cycle’s top and bottom lists show a phase shift favoring high-elasticity small-cap assets, driven more by sentiment and liquidity than fundamental improvements. While mainstream assets remain weak, volatility in fringe sectors has increased, indicating ongoing unstable risk appetite and short-term capital operations.

Figure 2: PENGUIN’s over 1,380% gain in two weeks, driven by community activity and meme narrative rotation, becoming a focal point for short-term capital

Market Cap Rank and Price Change Relationship

To analyze the structural features of this cycle, a scatter plot of the top 500 tokens by market cap was created. The horizontal axis shows market cap rank (left = larger cap), and the vertical axis shows price change from Jan 13 to Jan 26. Each dot represents a token, with green for gains and red for losses.

Overall, most tokens are in negative territory, with many in the -5% to -20% range, indicating a generally weak environment with widespread corrections. However, some extreme positive outliers are concentrated in lower market cap ranks, forming a high-elasticity structure separate from the main trend.

Top performers include PENGUIN, RIVER, AXS, SKR, DUSK, all in mid-to-lower market cap segments, with PENGUIN’s extraordinary rise standing out as a typical social and sentiment-driven rally. These small, concentrated assets are more prone to short-term trading games when no clear market trend exists. Conversely, large-cap tokens’ price changes cluster near zero, showing increased defensive attributes; assets with sharp declines like SHMEEGUS and MERL are also in mid-to-lower segments, reflecting “two-way amplification” during liquidity volatility.

Overall, the chart reveals a core feature: broad market consolidation with small-cap high volatility. Capital has not exited entirely but rotated into high-elasticity targets for short-term trading, leading to a “fat tail” distribution of returns among mid-to-lower cap tokens, with a phase of trading-driven, emotional risk preference.

Figure 3: Scatter plot of market cap rank vs. price change shows significant amplification in small-cap segment, with extreme movers concentrated in mid-to-lower ranks, indicating clear market segmentation

Top 100 Market Cap Leaders

During this volatility cycle, the top 100 tokens’ overall fluctuation has converged, but internal structure shows clear differentiation, with capital rapidly shifting between risk aversion and thematic rotation.

Excluding stablecoins and LSD tokens, RIVER (+267.65%) led gains, exemplifying a high-elasticity, event-driven rally. RIVER, a cross-ecosystem liquidity infrastructure protocol, recently announced collaborations with U Tech / United Stables to expand multi-chain stablecoin $U applications, and completed a $12 million strategic funding round, boosting market expectations of real-world deployment and financial strength. In volatile markets, narratives around “infrastructure + stablecoin liquidity” tend to attract capital, making RIVER a focal point. Following are SKY (+17.88%) and RAIN (+11.13%), reflecting some mid-sized projects gaining rotation capital. Additionally, PAXG (+10.65%) and XAUT (+10.56%) also performed well, indicating rising demand for on-chain gold as a safe haven amid macro uncertainty and dollar weakness.

On the downside, the top 100’s corrections mainly involve previously strong or high Beta assets. XMR (-27.9%) led declines, with privacy sector capital retreating in liquidity contraction environments; ENA (-22.35%), POL (-19.97%), RENDER (-19.41%), and WLD (-18.30%) followed, mostly narrative-premium or previously high-flying projects, experiencing valuation compression during risk-off phases.

Overall, the top 100 assets show a “risk-averse and event-driven rise, high Beta narrative tokens retreat” structure. Mainstream assets remain relatively stable, but capital is reallocating within the crypto ecosystem: some toward safe-haven on-chain gold, others toward high-elasticity targets, while popular narrative assets face valuation pressures, indicating ongoing risk re-pricing and style rebalancing.

Figure 4: Top 100 assets with leading gains include RIVER and two gold-pegged tokens (PAXG, XAUT), reflecting coexistence of on-chain safe havens and structural rotation

Volume Expansion Analysis

Transaction Volume Growth

Beyond price performance, some mid-cap tokens showed significant volume expansion this cycle. Using pre-activation volume as baseline, KAIA, ZRO, SAND, OG, and ROSE experienced 3–9x increases, indicating phased capital inflows and marginally increased market activity.

Volume expansion shows clear layering. KAIA and ZRO both increased in volume and price, indicating active capital-driven rebounds; ROSE, with moderate volume growth, achieved the largest gains, exemplifying high elasticity in mid-cap assets during capital inflows. Conversely, OG and SAND, despite active trading, responded less in price, suggesting liquidity repair rather than trend-driven buying, with cautious buying pressure.

Overall, volume-expanding assets are characterized by “volume up and price up,” with clear strength/weakness differentiation, implying capital is selectively deploying in mid-cap segments. However, some assets’ gains have not fully matched volume growth, indicating market sentiment remains exploratory, and trend-driven rallies are yet to fully develop.

Figure 5: KAIA, ZRO, ROSE, and SAND show significant volume expansion and rebounds, indicating phased capital inflow with varying strength

Volume Change and Price Analysis

Building on the volume anomaly observations, this report further correlates volume growth multiples with price change percentages, plotting a scatter diagram with axes: volume increase multiple over baseline and price change %. Using a symmetric log scale, the chart reveals the structure of “volume-price resonance.”

A few projects in the upper right quadrant show “volume-price resonance,” such as KAIA, ZRO, ROSE, SAND, with volume surges accompanied by positive gains, indicating phased capital inflow into mid-cap elastic assets. ROSE’s outstanding rise exemplifies sentiment and capital synergy. Conversely, some large-cap assets like ETHX and CLBTC show volume increases but price declines, reflecting activity driven by rebalancing, hedging, or structural flows rather than trend-following.

Overall, the market displays a “majority with low volume and weak prices, few with volume-price resonance,” with volume surges mainly in smaller or mid-cap assets, and limited diffusion to mainstream assets. The market remains in a tentative phase of capital re-entry rather than full risk appetite recovery.

Figure 6: Scatter plot shows most tokens in low-volume, weak-price zone; only a few mid-cap assets exhibit volume-price resonance rebounds

Correlation Analysis

Further analyzing the systemic correlation between volume growth and price change, a statistical measure was used: “volume growth rate / market cap” as a relative activity indicator, and its correlation with price change was calculated. This identifies which tokens are most sensitive to capital flows.

Most tokens show correlations in the 0.7–0.9 range, indicating a strong current environment of capital-driven movement—volume surges often accompany price swings, with sentiment and liquidity heavily influencing short-term trends.

Correlation stratifies clearly: WSRUSD, SWOP, PENGUIN, KAIA, DASH are highly correlated, with prices highly sensitive to volume changes, typical of sentiment and short-term capital dominance; PGOLD, LINEA, USD1, BERA are mid-level, still driven by capital but with more controlled volatility, leaning toward structural rotation; RUNE, FLOW, OG show lower correlation, with price moves more driven by fundamentals or specific flows, with limited sentiment amplification. Overall, the market’s capital is mainly amplifying volatility in high-elasticity assets, while some functional and mid-sized projects are gaining independence.

Overall, the current market exhibits a “high Beta assets highly capital-driven, mainstream and functional assets with lower correlation,” with capital favoring high-elasticity targets for volatility amplification, while some mid-to-large or functional projects show relative independence, reflecting a risk appetite that is recovering but still sentiment and trading driven.

Figure 7: Highly correlated assets are concentrated in high-elasticity and sentiment-driven sectors, while some functional and mid-large projects show lower correlation, indicating a layered market structure

Under macro pressure, the crypto market continues its defensive pattern: mainstream assets weaken, funds flow back to main chains, but market structure shows rotation: top 400 tokens slightly decline, while small-cap sectors outperform inversely, with short-term capital shifting toward high-elasticity targets. Mid-to-small cap tokens like PENGUIN and RIVER surge amid community and event catalysts, while some prior high Beta assets retreat sharply, intensifying emotional divergence. Volume expansion is mainly seen in select assets, with most remaining in low-volume weakness; correlation analysis shows high-elasticity tokens are most sensitive to capital activity. Overall, the market remains in a phase of localized rotation under macro constraints, with short-term trading dominant and no full trend recovery yet, but structural opportunities persist.

In addition, multiple potential airdrop projects are actively progressing, covering NFT trading platforms, decentralized bandwidth sharing networks, Web3 interactive platforms, and more. By timing participation and maintaining engagement, users can position early for token incentives and airdrops during volatility. The following sections will detail four projects and participation methods to help systematically capture Web3 opportunities.

Hot Airdrop Projects

This section highlights key potential airdrop projects from January 13 to January 26, 2026, including OpenSea (NFT marketplace), Dawn (decentralized bandwidth sharing), Nexira (Web3 interaction platform), and Polarise (prediction market + social incentives). Users can accumulate points and contributions by connecting wallets, keeping nodes online, completing on-chain and social tasks, inviting friends, and daily check-ins, increasing their future airdrop or token allocation chances.【2-5】

OpenSea

OpenSea is one of the largest NFT trading platforms globally, building open digital asset market infrastructure supporting multiple chains like Ethereum, Polygon, Solana, etc., covering art, game items, domains, music, and collectibles. Its upcoming TGE (Pre-TGE Phase 5) is a community incentive event that records user activity via a “treasure chest growth system” and rewards participation with NFTs and potential tokens. The official page states a portion of platform revenue will be allocated to a reward pool, based on user engagement, task completion, and chest level. The event is live, and users can connect wallets and participate in tasks.【2】

Participation steps:

1. Visit OpenSea event page, connect wallet, and complete tutorial to activate initial treasure chest.
2. Click “Link Wallets” at top right to bind more chain wallets.
3. Check “Voyages” daily tasks, such as purchasing NFTs of specified value on any chain, to gain experience and upgrade chests.
4. Open chests at the end of the season to claim rewards.

Dawn

Dawn is a decentralized bandwidth sharing project aiming to build distributed network infrastructure by enabling ordinary users to contribute idle network resources via browser nodes. Users install browser extensions to become network nodes, providing connection quality and bandwidth support, earning points. Dawn is rolling out a new Browser Node extension with an incentive program. Keeping browsers online, contributing connections, and inviting friends earn points, which may be used for future rewards or airdrops.【3】

Participation steps:

1. Install the latest Dawn browser extension; remove old versions if present.
2. Log in with existing account or register a new one.
3. Keep the browser online and connected, ensuring the extension shows “Connected” to earn points.
4. Invite friends, improve connection quality, and stay online long-term to increase point accrual.

Nexira

Nexira is an interactive platform centered on Web3 gaming and digital assets, promoting user growth through tasks, social sharing, and community engagement. It uses points and reward boxes to incentivize participation, with plans to link points to future $NEXI tokens. The current New Year airdrop is part of a large early user incentive plan with a total reward pool of 50 million points, redeemable for $NEXI or other rewards. Users can complete social tasks, daily check-ins, and invite friends to earn reward boxes and points, with a limited-time sprint event for higher rewards.【4】

Participation steps:

1. Visit Nexira’s official site, click “Connect,” and log in.
2. Enter the airdrop page, start claiming reward boxes, and complete tasks.
3. Link social accounts and complete social tasks for extra rewards.
4. Daily check-in to accumulate points.
5. Invite friends to earn additional points and badges.

Polarise

Polarise is a Web3 platform combining prediction markets, social interaction, and on-chain incentives, aiming to build a community-driven decentralized prediction and discussion ecosystem. Users participate in activities, complete tasks, invite friends, and earn points and badges. Its Genesis Program offers points that can be exchanged for future $RISE tokens, representing an early airdrop opportunity. Participants earn points and badges through on-chain interactions, social sharing, and referrals, which can later be converted into $RISE allocation quotas.【5】

Participation steps:

1. Visit Polarise’s official site and connect your wallet.
2. Go to Rewards page, request test tokens for on-chain tasks.
3. Complete specified actions like address activation, on-chain interactions, and community engagement.
4. Invite friends for extra points and badges.
5. Convert accumulated points into $RISE token allocation via Swap Points.

Tips

Airdrop plans and participation methods may update at any time. Users should follow official channels for the latest info. Exercise caution, understand risks, and conduct thorough research before participating. Gate does not guarantee future airdrop rewards.

Summary

Reviewing the period from January 13 to January 26, 2026, under macro geopolitical and tariff uncertainties, the crypto market faced overall pressure. Mainstream assets weakened, funds returned to main chains, and the market adopted a defensive oscillation. BTC’s rebound was halted and turned weaker; ETH’s performance was even weaker, with on-chain inflows into Ethereum and outflows from high-leverage active networks, indicating reduced risk appetite.

Market cap structure showed clear layering: the top 400 tokens declined slightly, while the 401–500 small-cap segment rose against the trend, with short-term capital shifting to high-elasticity targets. Notably, PENGUIN, RIVER, AXS, SKR surged amid community and event catalysts; some high Beta assets retreated sharply, reflecting rapid emotional rotation. In the top 100, RIVER led gains driven by financing and partnerships; on-chain gold assets like PAXG and XAUT also strengthened, indicating rising safe-haven demand.

Volume-price analysis shows uneven recovery: assets like KAIA, ZRO, and ROSE experienced volume-price resonance, but most tokens remain in low-volume weakness. Correlation analysis indicates high-elasticity assets are most sensitive to capital activity, while some functional and mid-sized projects trend toward independence. Overall, the market is in a “mainstream defense + small-cap rotation + volume-price divergence” phase, with short-term trading dominant and no full trend recovery yet, but structural opportunities remain.

Additionally, active incentive projects such as OpenSea, Dawn, Nexira, and Polarise are at various stages of engagement, covering NFT platform rewards, decentralized bandwidth nodes, social growth points, and prediction markets, respectively. Users can build early positions through on-chain interactions, social tasks, and referrals, enhancing future airdrop and incentive chances. Continuous follow-up is recommended to strengthen early and long-term participation.

**References:** 1. CoinGecko, [https://www.coingecko.com/](https://www.coingecko.com/) 2. OpenSea, [https://opensea.io/rewards](https://opensea.io/rewards) 3. X, [https://x.com/dawninternet/status/1970880962834665614](https://x.com/dawninternet/status/1970880962834665614) 4. Nexira, [https://www.nexira.ai/airdrops](https://www.nexira.ai/airdrops) 5. Polarise, [https://app.polarise.org/login?](https://app.polarise.org/login?)
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