Bernstein: Bitcoin may bottom out at $60,000, with a potential reversal of the downtrend in 2026 and the start of a new cycle

Bernstein’s latest report indicates that the short-term bear market cycle in the crypto market may reverse by 2026, with Bitcoin prices expected to bottom out in the $60,000 range, laying the foundation for the next wave of market trends.
(Background: MicroStrategy invests an additional $75.3 million to buy 855 more Bitcoin! Holding 713,000 BTC nearing a loss, can Strategy continue to buy?)
(Additional context: Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone: Bitcoin will still crash to $50,000, silver is expected to drop to $50, and the best move during a rebound is to short.)

Table of Contents

• Market correction persists, but bear market may not be a long-term trend
• Bitcoin underperforms gold, central bank buying becomes a key variable
• Institutional cycles taking shape, market structure undergoes qualitative change
• U.S. policy developments as potential catalysts for a turning point
• Stable capital flows, corporate and miner resilience demonstrated

International investment bank Bernstein points out that although the cryptocurrency market is still in a correction phase, this short-term bear cycle is expected to reverse by 2026, with Bitcoin potentially forming a bottom in the $60,000 range, thus laying the groundwork for the next phase of market growth.

Market correction persists, but bear market may not be a long-term trend

Bernstein analysts recently released a research report stating that the current crypto market remains weak, with Bitcoin prices down about 40% from their all-time highs, indicating significant correction pressure. However, analysts believe this is more akin to a “short-term crypto bear cycle” rather than a long-term decline.

The report predicts that Bitcoin may form a price bottom near the previous cycle’s high, around $60,000, possibly in the first half of 2026, followed by a gradual establishment of a more solid support zone.

Bitcoin underperforms gold, central bank buying becomes a key variable

Analysts also pointed out that over the past year, Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold has significantly lagged, mainly due to central banks worldwide increasing their gold holdings, boosting gold’s price and market position. Bernstein notes that Bitcoin’s market cap is currently only about 4% of gold’s, approaching a two-year low.

As several countries, including China and India, accelerate their gold allocations, gold’s share of global foreign exchange reserves had risen to about 29% by the end of 2025, continuing to suppress Bitcoin’s relative performance in the short term.

Institutional cycles taking shape, market structure undergoes qualitative change

Despite short-term pressure, Bernstein emphasizes that the past two years have been a crucial “institutional cycle” in Bitcoin’s development history. The assets under management of spot Bitcoin ETFs have rapidly grown to approximately $165 billion, and the trend of companies including Bitcoin on their balance sheets is becoming increasingly clear.

Analysts believe this makes the current market distinctly different from past bull and bear cycles driven mainly by retail speculation. The market foundation and participant structure are more mature, providing support for long-term development.

U.S. policy developments as potential catalysts for a turning point

On the policy front, Bernstein highlights that the U.S. could become a significant variable influencing future market trends. The report mentions that the U.S. government has established a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” using confiscated digital assets, indicating a shift in official attitude.

Analysts also note that if there are leadership changes at the Federal Reserve and the overall political environment becomes more friendly toward the crypto industry, Bitcoin could be more seriously regarded as a sovereign or reserve asset in the medium to long term, though this remains uncertain.

Stable capital flows, corporate and miner resilience demonstrated

From a market structure perspective, Bernstein believes there are no signs of systemic collapse at present. Capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are relatively limited, with no large-scale panic withdrawals.

Additionally, some corporate investors continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings during downturns, and miners are expanding into new businesses like AI data centers to reduce reliance on mining revenues, further enhancing industry resilience.

Overall, Bernstein considers that the current market weakness is more likely a nearing-end correction rather than the start of a prolonged crypto winter. Although short-term volatility remains inevitable, if the anticipated reversal occurs in 2026, it could mark the beginning of what they call “the most critical cycle” for Bitcoin, with potential impacts surpassing the traditional four-year market cycle.