Pi Network Price Prediction: 186 million tokens unlocked in February may fall below the all-time low

Pi Network’s price hovers above $0.1500, with the core wallet selling 17.99 million PI tokens in 24 hours, and 186 million tokens unlocking in February. Technical RSI drops to 21, indicating oversold conditions; if it falls below $0.1463, the target shifts toward the psychological level of $0.1000.

Significance of the Core Team Selling 17 Million Tokens in 24 Hours

(Source: PiScan)

The abnormal outflow from Pi Foundation’s core wallet is the most concerning signal in Pi Network’s price forecast. PiScan data shows that 17.99 million PI tokens were transferred out of the official wallet in the past 24 hours, accounting for about 0.6% of the current circulating supply. Although this proportion seems small, the selling behavior of the core team carries a special indicator significance in the crypto market.

Normally, project-held tokens reflect confidence in the project’s long-term value. When the core team begins to reduce holdings, the market interprets it as a strong signal of “insider pessimism.” This psychological effect is especially evident in community-driven projects like Pi Network, where retail investors often view official actions as market signals. Continuous outflow from the core wallet can trigger a chain reaction: retail investors see the official selling and follow suit, creating a self-fulfilling sell-off wave.

More importantly, the persistence of the selling is noteworthy. This is not a one-time large transfer but a behavior that has been ongoing over the past few weeks. Historical data shows that during previous large unlock events, Pi Network’s price typically started declining one to two weeks before the unlock, reaching a local low on the day or day after the unlock, then gradually rebounding. The current price trend aligns with this pattern, with a continuous decline since mid-January likely being an early market reaction to the February unlock.

Additionally, the 186 million tokens being unlocked are not evenly distributed. According to Pi Network’s migration rules, early participants and active contributors will receive larger unlock shares. This means a significant portion of these tokens will flow into the hands of early miners with extremely low (or near zero) costs. For these users, even selling at $0.10 or lower yields huge profits, making their selling willingness very high. This cost structure difference makes it difficult to predict the post-unlock selling pressure through simple supply and demand analysis.

Threefold Impact of the February Unlock on Price

Supply side: 186 million new tokens dilute existing holders’ rights

Psychological side: Anticipated selling leads to pre-emptive price decline

Cost side: Early zero-cost miners are highly willing to sell at very low prices with low price tolerance

Deep Crisis Revealed by Mainnet Migration Data

(Source: PiScan)

Latest PiScan data shows that 279.4 million PI tokens have successfully migrated from the testnet to the mainnet. While this number appears to mark technological progress, it is actually another bearish factor for Pi Network’s price forecast. Mainnet migration means these tokens, previously locked on the testnet and non-tradable, can now be freely transferred to centralized exchanges for buying and selling.

Migration from testnet to mainnet is essentially a “liquidity unlock.” During the testnet phase, users held PI tokens but could not trade them publicly; these tokens were “frozen.” Once migrated to the mainnet and transferred to exchanges, these tokens immediately gain liquidity, and holders can choose to sell for cash. For early miners who have held PI for years, the mainnet migration is their first opportunity to convert “mining rewards” into real fiat currency, with a strong impulse to cash out.

Out of the 279.4 million migrated tokens, how much has already entered the market? This data cannot be tracked precisely, but based on price movements and trading volume changes, a significant portion has likely been sold. Over the past four weeks, Pi Network has continued to decline with increasing trading volume, directly indicating that mainnet migrated tokens are flooding into the market. If 30% to 50% of these 279 million tokens are eventually sold, that would mean about 80 million to 140 million potential sell pressure, which is significant relative to the current circulating supply of about 2.8 billion.

Mainnet migration also exposes another structural issue of Pi Network: the lack of sufficient application scenarios to absorb the unlocked tokens. Ideally, the mainnet should be accompanied by a rich DApp ecosystem, payment scenarios, or staking mechanisms to motivate users to hold rather than sell PI tokens. Currently, the Pi Network mainnet’s application ecosystem remains weak; most users’ first reaction after migration is “finally able to sell,” rather than “finally able to use.” This imbalance between supply release and demand creation is the fundamental reason for ongoing price decline.

Technical Indicators in Extreme Oversold Territory

(Source: TradingView)

From a technical analysis perspective, Pi Network signals a highly bearish outlook. As of Monday, PI hovers above $0.1500, marking the third consecutive day of decline. The price has sharply fallen from the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.1944 and is approaching the $0.1463 low touched last Saturday, indicating a full bear market structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 21, deep in oversold territory (usually below 30 is oversold). An RSI of 21 suggests that over the past 14 trading days, downward momentum has far exceeded upward momentum, with the market almost in a one-sided sell-off. Historically, RSI below 25 often triggers a technical rebound, as extreme oversold conditions lead to short-term short covering and bottom fishing. However, in the context of deteriorating fundamentals, such technical rebounds tend to be short-lived and weak, with prices continuing to seek lows afterward.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also shows a strong bearish signal. Both the fast and slow lines have plunged into negative territory, with the red histogram bars expanding, indicating accelerating downward momentum. This MACD pattern typically appears in early to mid-stages of a trend decline, suggesting further downside potential. Only when the MACD histogram begins to contract and the fast and slow lines form a golden cross can the downtrend be confirmed to be ending.

Regarding key support levels, $0.1463 is the most critical line of defense. This is the historic low set last Saturday and the bottom since Pi Network’s listing. A decisive break below this level would push Pi Network’s price into “support exploration mode,” with the next psychological level at $0.1000. The $0.10 mark is not only a psychological support but also a “stop-loss line” for many early investors; breaking below could trigger panic selling.

On the upside, the low of $0.1919 on October 11 is a direct resistance level, representing a recent low in the previous decline. If prices rebound, this level will be the first hurdle for bulls. More importantly, the 50-day EMA at $0.1944 is a key resistance; breaking this moving average could initially reverse the technical bear trend. However, given the current multiple bearish factors, the likelihood of breaking through these resistance levels in the short term remains very low.