STABLE surges 125% against the market! Stablecoin protocol tokens become the strongest dark horse in the bear market

STABLE has risen 125% against the crypto market downturn to $0.03. The stablecoin unlocked $27 million on February 8, with only 17.60% in circulation. It previously crashed 85% after the December 2025 unlock. The technical chart shows a double top, RSI over 70, with a downside target of $0.022.

Low Circulation Amplifier Effect Creates 250% Myth

STABLE is the native token of the Stable Protocol. Despite Bitcoin dropping below $75,000 and the overall crypto market weakening, it has become a standout performer. The STABLE/USDT trading pair has gained 125% since the start of the year, about 250% above its all-time low, reaching a high of $0.03 on February 3. In contrast, the total crypto market cap has decreased by approximately 12% during the same period. This counter-market performance has attracted significant market attention.

STABLE’s surge is not driven by fundamental breakthroughs but by a technical factor: extremely low circulating supply. Currently, only 17.60% of the total supply is in circulation (out of about 17.6 billion tokens, only 3.1 billion are circulating), meaning over 82% of tokens are still locked. This extreme low circulation creates an “amplifier effect”: any new demand can only be executed on a very shallow order book, causing prices to rise much faster than assets with ample liquidity.

The mechanism is as follows: suppose $1 million in new funds want to buy STABLE, but available tokens are very limited. Buyers must keep raising their bids to attract sellers. This bidding process can rapidly push prices higher in a low liquidity environment, creating visually exaggerated gains. Conversely, buying the same $1 million worth of tokens with high liquidity might only move the price a few percentage points.

This explains why, even without major fundamental changes, low-circulation tokens can experience seemingly exaggerated rallies. STABLE is not an isolated case; many newly issued governance tokens in the crypto market often undergo similar surges due to low liquidity early on, but these gains are usually unsustainable. Once circulating supply increases or market sentiment shifts, prices can quickly fall back.

Some traders buy during unlock events, betting that the market has already priced in the unlock schedule. This “buy the rumor, sell the news” strategy aims to profit before the unlock actually occurs. However, this approach is highly risky, as it’s essentially a game of “who runs faster.”

February 8 Unlock Repeats 85% Crash?

(Source: DropsTab)

On February 8, STABLE will unlock approximately $27 million worth of tokens. This event is key to understanding the current rally. Historical data shows mixed results: some unlocks lead to sharp sell-offs, while others see pre-event de-risking, raising concerns about future volatility.

The most cautionary example is the December 8 unlock. After that event, STABLE’s price plummeted over 85%, crashing from a high to a low within hours, causing thousands of investors to suffer heavy losses. This collapse was driven by a sudden supply shock: a large amount of previously locked tokens entered the market unexpectedly, while buy demand did not increase accordingly, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and a price avalanche.

The January 8 unlock was somewhat different. Although the price did not immediately crash, it had already fallen 27.5% in the week prior. This indicates traders learned to reduce risk early and started taking profits before the actual unlock. This “anticipatory selling” lessened the impact on the unlock day but came at the cost of pre-empting the rally.

Historical Unlock Events of STABLE

December 8: Over 85% crash post-unlock, supply shock triggered panic selling

January 8: 27.5% decline a week before unlock, traders pre-empted profits

Currently, the price has rebounded over 250% from lows, suggesting a higher likelihood of further decline rather than continued upward momentum. Overall market sentiment remains bearish. Despite uncertain prospects, the ongoing rally in STABLE offers traders an opportunity to profit from the token’s unlock mechanism. As new supply enters circulation, the price may fluctuate and then retrace.

This is a “buy the rumor, sell the news” trading approach: once the event passes, traders tend to withdraw their funds. Investors considering buying STABLE at current levels should ask themselves: Am I willing to risk a 50% or even 85% crash after the unlock? If not, staying away from such highly speculative tokens is the wiser choice.

Double Top Pattern and RSI Overbought Double Warning

(Source: Trading View)

The short-term structure of STABLE shows a clear double top risk, as the price has stalled twice below the same resistance zone. The chart indicates attempts to rise near $0.032–0.033 have failed twice, with the second attempt showing weakened momentum. This pattern often signals exhaustion of buying pressure, especially after a steep, nearly vertical rally.

A double top is one of the classic bearish reversal patterns in technical analysis. When the price hits the same high twice without breaking through, it indicates strong selling pressure at that level. The first top prompts early profit-taking. After a pullback, the second attempt often lacks strength, as many investors are waiting to sell on the second chance. Once the market confirms it cannot break through, disappointed bulls may turn into sellers, causing a rapid decline.

The RSI of STABLE has risen above 70, entering overbought territory, and has previously experienced significant pullbacks. While overbought RSI alone does not confirm a top, when combined with a double top, it significantly increases the likelihood of a correction. This technical setup is known as “double bearish confirmation” in trading textbooks and signals high risk for long positions.

If this pattern confirms, downside support could be around $0.022–$0.023, aligning with previous breakout levels and short-term moving averages. This suggests a potential drop of about 25–30% from the current price of approximately $0.03. For existing holders, this is a clear profit-taking signal. For new investors, chasing higher is risky; a more prudent approach is to wait for a pullback to support levels before considering entry.