Wosh is about to succeed as Federal Reserve Chair! The probability of a rate cut in June skyrocketed to 46%, boosting risk assets.

Donald Trump nominates Kevin Woor to be Federal Reserve Chair. Woor criticizes long-term tightening policies, and market expectations shift towards easing. CME FedWatch shows a 46% chance of rate cuts at the first meeting. Market confidence rebounds, stocks rise first, followed by cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin reacts strongly to liquidity expectations, with altcoins responding even more quickly.

Woor’s Nomination Changes the Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Expectation Path

Kevin Woor makes a strong entrance. President Trump nominated him to be Federal Reserve Chair on January 30, 2026. Woor previously served as a Federal Reserve Board member and was a key decision-maker during the 2008 financial crisis. He criticized the prolonged tight monetary policy and warned it could harm economic growth. As a result, markets expect the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance. Investors now anticipate a faster implementation of easing policies. Market confidence is steadily improving, and policy directions are becoming clearer.

Woor’s dovish stance contrasts sharply with Powell’s hawkish caution. Powell emphasized at the recent FOMC meeting that inflation remains high and the labor market is strong, implying that the likelihood of rate cuts in the near term is low. However, Woor’s nomination has shifted market expectations for future policy paths. Traders are beginning to bet that once Woor officially takes office (expected in May 2026), the Fed’s policy tone will undergo a fundamental change.

This shift in expectations is immediately reflected in market pricing. Bond yields start to decline, risk asset prices rebound, and the cryptocurrency market shows signs of recovery. Essentially, the market is pricing in the easing expectations of the Woor era ahead of time. This “buy the rumor” behavior is common in financial markets, often starting months before actual policy changes.

The timing of Woor’s nomination is also noteworthy. After weeks of market declines and investor confidence hitting rock bottom, this nomination acts as a strong rallying point. Trump likely timed it to stabilize market expectations by nominating a dovish figure. This political move demonstrates the White House’s close attention to financial markets and a strong motivation to maintain stability before midterm elections.

CME FedWatch Shows 46% Chance of Rate Cut in June

The CME FedWatch index clearly reflects this shift. Currently, there is a 46% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed. This probability applies to the first FOMC meeting chaired by Woor. Earlier data showed lower confidence, with a higher chance of rates remaining unchanged. Now, market expectations are rapidly rebalancing. Traders adjust their positions, bond yields respond, and risk assets begin to price in rate cut expectations.

A 46% chance of rate cuts means the market sees a near 50/50 chance of whether rates will be cut or not. Such a near-even probability often triggers significant volatility, as any new data could tip the scales. If upcoming inflation or employment data weaken, the probability could quickly rise to 70%-80%, further boosting risk assets. Conversely, if data remains strong, the probability could fall back to 20%-30%, leading to a market correction.

Changes in FedWatch data also reveal the evolving market expectations. Before Woor’s nomination, the chance of a rate cut in June was likely only 20%-30%, with markets generally expecting the Fed to keep rates high through 2026. After the nomination, the probability jumps to 46%, indicating a reassessment of the policy outlook. This dramatic shift in expectations is a key reason behind recent rebounds in risk assets.

It’s important to note that the 46% probability corresponds to a rate cut in June. If the Fed actually cuts rates in June, it implies a four-month wait from now (February) until then. During this period, the market will experience multiple data releases and expectation adjustments, likely maintaining high volatility. Traders need to closely monitor inflation reports, employment data, and Fed officials’ speeches, as these will influence the actual probability of a June rate cut.

Liquidity Expectations Boost Bitcoin and Altcoins

Lower interest rates mean increased liquidity, which the market is well aware of. Stocks typically benefit first, with cryptocurrencies following closely behind. Bitcoin historically reacts strongly to liquidity expectations, with altcoins responding even more rapidly. As a result, optimistic sentiment is quietly building. Volatility tends to narrow before expansion, and positions are gradually increasing.

The impact of rate cuts on the crypto market is multi-layered. The first layer is the direct reduction in borrowing costs. When the Fed cuts rates, borrowing becomes cheaper, making leveraged trading more affordable. The crypto market relies heavily on leverage, so rate cuts will stimulate more leveraged trading, pushing prices higher. The second layer is the reduction in opportunity costs. When U.S. Treasury yields fall, the relative attractiveness of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin increases. Investors shift from fixed-income products to risk assets.

The third layer is the psychological expectation effect. Rate cuts are seen as a sign of accommodative economic policy, boosting market confidence and risk appetite. Even before liquidity actually flows into markets, mere expectation changes can drive asset prices higher. The current market rebound is largely driven by this expectation effect. The fourth layer is the dollar’s depreciation effect. Rate cuts often weaken the dollar, and since Bitcoin is negatively correlated with the dollar, a weaker dollar usually coincides with a stronger Bitcoin.

Four Effects of Fed Rate Cuts on Crypto Markets

Lower Capital Costs: Leverage trading becomes cheaper, stimulating speculation

Lower Opportunity Cost: Falling Treasury yields make Bitcoin more attractive

Psychological Expectation Boost: Easing signals enhance risk appetite

Dollar Depreciation Effect: Rate cuts weaken the dollar, Bitcoin tends to strengthen

Crypto traders are closely watching developments. Rate cuts favor leverage trading, reduce capital costs, and stimulate speculative sentiment, improving overall market mood. Community discussions already reflect this shift. Many expect prices to rise again, while others remain cautious. However, macroeconomic conditions are crucial. Leadership changes may determine the next cycle’s direction.

Historical data shows Bitcoin tends to perform well during Fed easing cycles. In 2019, when the Fed cut rates, Bitcoin surged from $4,000 to $14,000. During the emergency rate cuts and quantitative easing in 2020, Bitcoin skyrocketed from $4,000 to a peak of $69,000 in 2021. While past performance does not guarantee future results, these precedents provide historical basis for market optimism.

Risks and Variables Before June 2026

The market’s current primary expectation is stability. The Fed plans to keep rates unchanged, a stance likely to persist through the next two meetings. Policymakers need more data. Inflation remains stubborn, and growth signals are slowly weakening. Therefore, cautious sentiment dominates recent decisions. This means that from now until June, the Fed may remain on hold, waiting for more economic data to justify a rate cut.

During this waiting period, several risk factors could alter rate cut expectations. First, if inflation data unexpectedly rises, the Fed may be forced to delay or even consider raising rates again. Second, if the labor market remains strong, the Fed will lack urgency to cut. Third, geopolitical risks (such as escalation of US-Iran conflicts) could trigger risk aversion, prompting the Fed to adjust policies. Fourth, Woor’s confirmation still needs Senate approval; if the confirmation process encounters surprises, market expectations could reverse.

However, market expectations are already shifting. Traders are now focusing on leadership changes, with market sentiment moving away from Powell and toward Kevin Woor. This shift is reshaping asset prices, with stocks rebounding from lows and Bitcoin rising from $74,000 to over $77,000. If Woor indeed leads the Fed to cut rates in June, the current rebound could be just the beginning of a larger bull market. But if rate cuts do not materialize as expected, disappointed markets could plunge again.

During this uncertain transitional period, investors should remain cautiously optimistic. Woor’s dovish stance is positive, but actual policy depends on June’s confirmation. Until then, paying close attention to inflation data, employment reports, and Fed officials’ speeches will be crucial, as these will continue to influence rate expectations and market trends.