The probability of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 exceeds 70%. What is the market worried about?

The weekend sell-off caused Bitcoin’s price to briefly dip below the psychological threshold of $75,000, and market sentiment seems to have shifted overnight. On the prediction platform Polymarket, a compelling wager is heating up: betting on the probability that Bitcoin will fall below $65,000 in 2026 has surged to 72%, attracting nearly one million dollars in bets. This is not just a numbers game; it acts as a mirror reflecting the current undercurrents in the crypto market— from the frenzy after Trump’s election victory to the widespread anxiety about “deep dips,” the speed of this shift is astonishing.

What’s more, some veteran players are alerting that this decline has put the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder, Strategy, to its first test since late 2023, where its average cost basis is being challenged. It’s like a marathon leader suddenly finding the track beneath their feet turning slippery.

Why has market sentiment suddenly turned sour? On the surface, it appears to be a price correction. But a closer look reveals several forces pulling together like a tangled rope, collectively tugging at the market.

First, there are technical “breakdown” signals. According to some on-chain analysis firms, Bitcoin has been in a “bear market” cycle since falling below its 365-day moving average in November 2025. This long-term moving average is often seen as the “bull-bear dividing line”; once broken, it typically triggers systematic de-risking among technical investors. I remember during the 2018 bear market, similar long-cycle moving average breaches led to months of downward drift and bottoming processes, where early bottom-fishing was akin to “catching a falling knife.”

Second, the “water tap” of macro liquidity seems to be tightening. Some macro analysts point out that the recent correction is more due to liquidity tightening in the overall U.S. financial environment rather than any fundamental flaw in cryptocurrencies themselves. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, the draining effect of Treasury issuance—these seemingly distant macro factors—are actually transmitted through risk asset pricing logic directly to Bitcoin’s price. When the tide (liquidity) recedes, the most volatile assets are the first to be exposed.

Lastly, an interesting perspective comes from industry insiders. Mati Greenspan, CEO of Quantum Economics, reminds us that perhaps we’ve been focusing on the wrong thing all along. He wrote on social media that Bitcoin’s core design goal is to be a currency independent of the traditional banking system; price appreciation is merely a “side effect,” not its primary purpose. This viewpoint is like a cold splash of water, prompting us to think: when the market only focuses on price ups and downs, has it already strayed from its original vision?

Are prediction markets like crystal balls reliable? The high-probability bets on Polymarket undoubtedly amplify market pessimism. Besides the bet that Bitcoin will fall below $65,000, there’s a 61% chance it could drop to $55,000. Meanwhile, there’s still a 54% chance that it could rebound to $100,000 before the end of the year. This tug-of-war between bulls and bears highlights the significant disagreement within the market.

But here’s a key question: do the “probabilities” in prediction markets equal future “facts”? Not necessarily. They more accurately reflect the collective sentiment of market participants voting with real money. This sentiment is highly contagious, capable of self-fulfillment, but it can also reverse instantly due to a sudden positive development. Just like the epic bull run after the March 2020 crash, no one could have predicted the subsequent surge. Prediction markets are excellent windows into market sentiment but are not reliable navigation tools for investing.

Additionally, Polymarket itself faces regulatory challenges, such as restrictions in Nevada due to licensing issues. This reminds us that this “sentiment barometer” is also in a dynamic environment of change.

Institutional opinions clash—who should retail investors listen to? Faced with market confusion, the views of large institutions are also showing interesting “clashes.”

On one hand, bearish sentiment dominates prediction markets and some analysts. On the other hand, just a few months ago, several top institutions issued quite optimistic forecasts. For example, Grayscale Investments predicted Bitcoin could break its all-time high of $126,000 in the first half of 2026, citing ongoing institutional adoption and gradually clearer regulation. Analysts from Standard Chartered and Bernstein also set target prices of $150,000 for 2026, though they later revised downward due to slowing ETF capital inflows.

Such contradictions are common. The long-term logic of institutions (like Bitcoin’s scarcity and the narrative of digital gold) often speaks a different language from short-term market fluctuations (liquidity, sentiment, technical signals). For investors, the key is to discern which voice you’re hearing: is it a multi-year trend judgment or a warning about risks in the coming quarters?

What should investors focus on now? Market noise is abundant, but I believe we can concentrate on a few more substantive points rather than being led by simple price movement probabilities.

• Strategy’s “cost basis” defense: As a market “flag,” the relationship between its stock price and its cost basis warrants attention. If Bitcoin remains below its average cost, will it shake long-term holding strategies or influence other listed companies’ follow-through? This is an important indicator.
• Real macro liquidity data: Instead of guessing, focus on actual data like the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance. These are the “driving forces” behind all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
• On-chain activity “quality” and “quantity”: When prices fall, are long-term holders panic-selling, or are they over-accumulating? On-chain data can reveal whether holdings are dispersed or concentrated. For example, changes in long-term holder supply, exchange inflows and outflows—these indicators are often more forward-looking than price charts.
• Does your own investment logic still hold? This is the most important point. Why did you invest in Bitcoin in the first place? Because you believe in its potential as a store of value long-term, or just for short-term speculation? If your long-term reasoning remains unchanged (such as global monetary overshoot, sovereign credit risks), then market volatility can serve as a test of your conviction and an opportunity to enter at better prices. If you’re just riding the hype, then any fluctuation can make you restless.

Markets always swing between excessive optimism and excessive pessimism. When 72% of people on Polymarket bet on a decline, perhaps it’s time for us to stay calm and think contrarily. After all, in the crypto world, consensus is often very expensive, and true opportunities often arise when consensus breaks down. Of course, any judgment should be combined with your own situation—markets are always uncertain, and good position management and risk control are essential lessons for navigating any cycle.