The Supreme Court ruling could trigger over $175 billion in tariff refunds

PA News, February 20 — Economists at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School’s Budget Model (PWBM) stated on Friday that if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that the large-scale emergency tariffs implemented by President Trump are invalid, over $175 billion in U.S. tariff revenue could be at risk of being refunded. Leslie Boller, senior economist at PWBM, said they based this estimate on a bottom-up forecasting model. The model analyzes specific tariffs imposed by Trump, including those levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), using tariff rates divided by product and country. Trump has been touting the revenue generated from tariffs; the Congressional Budget Office estimates that they will bring in about $300 billion annually over the next decade. However, estimates show that if the court rules against Trump, a significant portion of these tariffs may need to be refunded. The $175 billion refund would exceed the total expenditures of the Department of Transportation’s $127.6 billion and the Department of Justice’s $44.9 billion in fiscal year 2025.