XRP approaches the $0.85 long-term support level: holding may restart the rally, losing it could lead to a drop to $0.62

March 4 News: Recently, XRP prices have been under continuous pressure, with a cumulative decline of over 52% since Q4 2025. Data shows that in February 2026, XRP dropped 16.32% in a single month, marking the first time since 2017 that it has experienced five consecutive months of decline. If the current trend continues, the market may see a sixth consecutive month of correction. However, many market analysts believe this decline is more likely a phase of adjustment within a bull market cycle rather than a trend reversal.

Market observer CoinsKid pointed out in a recent analysis that XRP’s weekly chart is forming an ABC correction structure similar to historical patterns. Looking back at previous cycles, XRP rose to about $3.40 in January 2025 before entering an adjustment phase, falling to $1.61 in April to form wave A; then rebounded to $3.66 in July 2025, creating a high point for wave B. Currently, the market is experiencing wave C correction, with prices dropping to around $1.35, indicating that the correction may still be ongoing.

Analysis suggests that the key to XRP’s long-term trend is a rising support trendline that has been effective since 2018. Currently, this support level is approximately at $0.85. Historical data shows XRP has touched this trendline multiple times and rebounded strongly, including lows of $0.11 in March 2020, $0.17 in December 2020, $0.30 in January 2023, and $0.38 in July 2024. After each retest, the market has entered a new upward cycle.

However, if the price breaks below this long-term trendline and closes weekly below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.6248, it could indicate a deeper correction. Technical models suggest that in such a case, XRP might further test lower zones around $0.3855, $0.2087, or even $0.0956.

In the short term, traders are also watching several key technical levels, including the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $1.19 and the 0.618 golden ratio at around $0.9127. Analysts note that XRP often finds support near the 0.618 retracement zone.

On the upside, the main resistance is formed by the descending trendline near $1.55. If the price can break through this area and stabilize, the market could regain upward momentum. CoinsKid believes that once the second wave correction is completed and resistance is broken, XRP could enter a new bullish cycle, with a long-term target potentially reaching $8, and in extreme cases, even higher levels.