Bitcoin Finally Won? JPMorgan: Funds Shift After Iran Tensions, Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surpass Gold

JPMorgan recently reported that since the outbreak of the Iran conflict at the end of February, there has been a clear divergence in capital flows between Bitcoin and gold ETFs: the world’s largest gold ETF experienced a 2.7% outflow, while the largest Bitcoin spot ETF saw a 1.5% inflow. This change not only indicates a rebalancing of market preferences between the two assets but also reflects institutional participation driving market maturity.

Safe-haven Shift? Bitcoin ETF Inflows, Gold ETF Outflows

JPMorgan analysts stated in a Wednesday report that since the Iran war erupted on February 28, investors’ funds have shown a significant shift between Bitcoin and gold ETFs.

The world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (ticker: GLD), experienced approximately 2.7% asset outflows during this period; meanwhile, the world’s largest Bitcoin spot ETF, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), recorded about 1.5% inflows.

Analysts believe this trend indicates some investors are beginning to reassess Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset. The shift in capital flows has also reversed the earlier advantage of gold ETFs in attracting funds this year, signaling a new adjustment in asset allocation.

(Funds flowing back into Bitcoin ETF, after US-Iran conflict, BTC replacing gold as a safe haven?)

Last Year Saw a “Bitcoin Turning to Gold” Trend

However, JPMorgan also pointed out that this change is not a long-term trend continuation. Since October 2025, the market experienced a notable capital rotation: some investors, especially retail investors, shifted from Bitcoin to gold for hedging. At that time, IBIT saw significant outflows, while GLD attracted substantial inflows.

Data from SoSoValue shows that since October last year, inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have significantly decreased.

Nevertheless, over a longer period, Bitcoin ETFs still maintain an overall advantage in attracting capital. JPMorgan states that since 2024, the cumulative inflow into IBIT has been about twice that of GLD. Additionally, IBIT’s asset size approached that of GLD in July 2025, but after Bitcoin prices declined starting last October, the gap widened again.

Institutional Investors Still Prefer Gold as a Hedge

Although recent ETF capital flows suggest Bitcoin is more favored, from an institutional investor perspective, the situation appears somewhat different. JPMorgan noted that recently, short positions in IBIT increased, while short positions in GLD decreased, indicating some hedge funds and institutional investors are reducing Bitcoin exposure while increasing allocations to gold.

Furthermore, options market data also shows that investors are adopting a more cautious stance toward Bitcoin. The put-to-call ratio (P/C Ratio) for IBIT has remained higher than that of GLD since November last year, implying rising demand for hedging against Bitcoin downside risks. Analysts suggest this also reflects investors considering more complex financial instruments to manage crypto asset risks.

(Goldman Sachs warns: US stocks have “extreme rebound” momentum, short hedges trigger short covering rally)

Volatility Compression: Bitcoin Market Matures

In addition to capital flows and derivatives signals, JPMorgan has observed another change in the Bitcoin market: volatility is gradually compressing. Analysts believe this may reflect increased institutional holdings and improved market liquidity, leading to more stable Bitcoin prices.

JPMorgan reiterates its long-term optimistic outlook on the crypto market and maintains a long-term target price of $266,000 for Bitcoin, based on a volatility-adjusted model comparing Bitcoin and gold.

This article, “Has Bitcoin Finally Won? JPMorgan: Post-Iran Conflict Capital Flows Shift, Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surpass Gold,” first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.