Geopolitics

The IMF warns that stablecoins may disrupt global payments and weaken local currencies in inflationary economies. While offering benefits like faster cross-border payments, risks include lack of regulation and potential for illicit activity. Regulatory clarity is essential for stability.

Russia's communications regulator Roskomnadzor has implemented speed restrictions on Telegram since February 10, and has received over 13,000 user complaints about service disruptions. Although a complete ban is not currently planned, if Telegram fails to comply with legal requirements, it could impact its user experience in Russia and subsequently affect the TON blockchain ecosystem closely linked to it.

Recently, Mar-a-Lago Road in Palm Beach, Florida, was renamed "Trump Avenue," symbolizing Trump's influence. Mar-a-Lago is no longer a private club and is gradually becoming an important hub for political and business elites as well as the crypto community. WLFI will soon hold a closed-door forum here, with participants being carefully selected elites from the finance and political sectors, showcasing the integration trend of crypto and traditional finance. The Trump family actively leverages this platform to attract crypto investments, making it a focal point and policy supporter in the field.

Former FTX Co-CEO Ryan Salame, while serving time in federal prison, posted a series of pro-Trump statements on the X platform through a third party. Salame promised that if he were pardoned, he would serve as an ICE agent and fund citizens to obtain voting identification documents. This campaign coincides with a wave of Trump pardons, and the public speculates that he is seeking a pardon for himself.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller stated on February 9 that recent sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin indicate that the TACO trading frenzy that occurred when the Trump administration took office has subsided. Bitcoin fell to $60,000 on February 5, nearly erasing the gains since Trump's election. Waller pointed out that the surge in volatility is driven by regulatory uncertainty and institutional risk management, with companies entering through ETFs being forced to close positions.

Lawyer Bill Morgan revisits the 2013 article "The Promise of Ripple," in which journalist Felix Salmon stated that XRP is superior to Bitcoin. The article is now hard to find, official records are blacked out, and Grok AI claims it does not exist. Morgan believes that Bitcoin's dominance is a human narrative that marginalizes XRP.

President Bukele of El Salvador has a support rate of 91.9%, reaching a new high. Among 1,200 people, 62.8% strongly support him, mainly due to improved public safety rather than Bitcoin. Only 2.2% of respondents believe BTC is a failure, and it was rarely mentioned. The country adopted BTC in 2021, but daily usage remains limited, with only 1 coin purchased per day. The country has received a $1.4 billion loan from the IMF, and the Chivo wallet is facing closure.

Sanae Takashi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has secured an over two-thirds supermajority in the House of Representatives, marking a historic turning point in Japanese politics. The market bets that Takashi's policies will drive expansionary fiscal measures, leading the yen to weaken against the US dollar to the 157.50 range. The Japanese stock market benefited from policy tailwinds and surged strongly, while the bond market was pressured by expectations of fiscal expansion. This victory not only consolidates Takashi's ruling position but also signals Japan's move toward an economic path characterized by large-scale borrowing to support public spending.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi achieved the biggest post-war victory in the February 8 parliamentary election, with the Liberal Democratic Party expected to secure 274 to 326 seats. The market responded quickly, with the US dollar rising 0.2% against the yen to 157, and Bitcoin surging 5% against the yen. The strong mandate paves the way for crypto tax reforms, with the current top rate of 55% potentially reduced to 20%, along with capital gains tax and allowing loss carryforwards for three years.

Only 2 Taiwanese legislators hold Bitcoin. Ge Rujun has NT$9.62 million in virtual assets stored in a cold wallet. Liao Weixiang has NT$7.38 million stored on Binance. Ge Rujun bought his first Bitcoin in 2014 with $600. Liao Weixiang initially engaged in speculative trading in 2016 and started holding long-term in 2018.

CFTC Chair Selig withdraws proposal to ban sports political event contracts during the Biden administration, criticizing it as a "reckless regulatory approach before the election." Not issuing final rules, the new regulations based on the Commodity Exchange Act will promote innovation. At the same time, the September staff letter requesting litigation preparation has been withdrawn. This affects Polymarket and Kalshi, but the platforms still face legal challenges in multiple states.

Ripple executives attended the White House Cryptocurrency Regulatory Summit on February 3rd and received significant recognition. Donations exceeded $50 million in 2024, and in 2023, they gained an advantage by winning part of the SEC lawsuit. Participating in the summit is part of a long-term strategy to advocate for favorable policies. The community's focus is on strategic influence rather than price, believing that federal recognition will eventually be achieved. Ripple has become a policy influencer in the United States and can directly articulate regulatory perspectives.

The White House demands resolution of stablecoin yield disputes by the end of February, or market structure legislation will collapse. Banks estimate that in an extreme scenario, deposit outflows could reach $6.6 trillion, and Standard Chartered predicts a $500 billion outflow by 2028. The core controversy: whether exchanges can offer rewards for stablecoins. Banks advocate banning anti-volatility savings products, while Coinbase states that Congress retains the authority to grant third-party rewards. A three-way compromise: activity rewards, reserve deposits into community banks, and retail bans on institutional access.

Telegram founder Durov warns that Spain's online age verification law will eliminate anonymity and turn the country into a surveillance state. Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez announced at the Dubai summit to restrict social media use for those under 16, stating "Social media has become a failed state, take back control to protect children." Critics believe this is control rather than protection. Concordium CEO suggests using blockchain zero-knowledge proofs to verify age without revealing identity.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was questioned by the House of Representatives on Wednesday, focusing on the conflict of interest between Trump WLFI and the United Arab Emirates. The Wall Street Journal reported that before Trump's inauguration, the UAE secretly invested $500 million to acquire a 49% stake in WLFI. Lawmakers called for a suspension of WLFI's banking license and questioned whether Yellen has the authority to "rescue Bitcoin." Yellen explicitly responded that neither the U.S. Treasury nor the Financial Stability Oversight Council has such authority.

Trump and allies raise $429 million, setting a record, with Maga PAC holding $304 million. The biggest donor, Crypto.com, donates $30 million; OpenAI's Brockman contributes $12.5 million; A16Z founders each donate $3 million. The crypto industry and Silicon Valley are investing heavily to gain regulatory relief, especially in crypto legislation and opposition to state-level AI regulation. The funds may be used for midterm elections or to maintain influence after leaving office.

Trump nominates Kevin Wash as Federal Reserve Chair. Wash criticizes long-term tightening policies, and market expectations shift towards easing. CME FedWatch shows a 46% chance of rate cuts at the first meeting. Market confidence rebounds, stocks rise first, followed by cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin reacts strongly to liquidity expectations, and altcoins respond even more quickly.

The U.S. Department of Justice releases Jeffrey Epstein files, revealing 9 cryptocurrency figures. Thiel was invested $40 million and invited to visit islands, Musk's SolarCity powered the islands and inquired about parties, Tether founder Pierce communicated multiple times and admitted Epstein was the one who introduced him to cryptocurrencies, Saylor appeared indirectly through a third party. Most clarifications indicate no illegal activity, but only 3.5 million pages have been released, raising questions about covering up the truth.

France raids X Paris headquarters, investigates child abuse images, AI deepfakes, and Holocaust denial content, summons Musk for questioning on April 20. Telegram founder Durov criticizes "France is the only country to criminally persecute social networks that promote freedom," condemning the use of child protection as a pretext for censorship. Grok has been blocked by Malaysia and Indonesia due to generating pornographic deepfakes, and the EU has fined 120 million euros.

The House of Representatives passed a $1.2 trillion funding bill with a vote of 217:214, ending the four-day crisis of the Trump administration shutdown. Trump is expected to sign the bill to reopen the government. Bitcoin was slightly boosted by the news, rising to around $76,000, but has not yet fully shaken off its sluggish trend. The Senate's Digital Asset Market Structure Act is stalled due to Coinbase withdrawing support.