BTC 15-minute rise 0.48%: stronger spot buy-side demand combined with shrinking liquidity driving the move

2026-04-13 14:30 to 2026-04-13 14:45 (UTC), BTC delivered a +0.48% return within a 0.55% amplitude range (71600.7–71997.0 USDT). During the period, market volatility intensified, and both spot and on-chain data indicate that short-term capital flows have become notably active. Market attention has increased, while sentiment remains cautious.

The main drivers behind this sudden move are stronger spot market buy-side demand and continued net outflows from exchanges. Specifically, over the past 24 hours, BTC spot trading volume was about $33.15B, up 6.4% versus the 7-day average. Over the past 7 days, however, total exchange BTC reserves have fallen to the lowest level since 2018 (<2.3M BTC), effectively reducing selling pressure from circulation and making the supply contraction effect particularly significant. At the same time, ETFs have absorbed more than 1,200 BTC per day on average, far exceeding the 450 BTC daily new issuance, further strengthening the short-term price support from structural supply-demand imbalance. In this process, order book depth has shrunk by 50% from last year’s peak; even moderate buy orders can amplify price volatility.

In addition, leverage in the derivatives market has continued to decline since February. Perpetual futures funding rates have eased, and the overall market structure is relatively stable—there are no signs of large-scale liquidations or a chain-reaction cascade. There has been capital rotation among ETF products: some ETF net outflows have flowed into new products, but major institutional ETFs have still recorded continuous net inflows, which has not triggered systemic sell pressure. Miners have continued net selling (near-month -78,483 BTC), but it has been fully absorbed by spot and ETF demand, without causing any significant sell pressure. On the external side, BTC’s 30-day correlation with risk assets such as the Nasdaq is high (0.94). Heightened geopolitical risk has increased the sensitivity of capital flows, and with overall liquidity being fragile, volatility has been amplified.

It is important to note that current BTC order book depth remains below $130M. The market is extremely sensitive to mid- and large-sized capital, and the sudden move may be magnified by external events. Large-scale redemptions across ETFs or accelerated selling by miners at the end of the month remain the main structural risks. Users should closely monitor changes in liquidity, ETF capital flows, and the evolution of macro events, and watch key support ranges as well as spot and on-chain outflow trends. Please continue to follow real-time updates on subsequent market conditions.