Is the Hormuz Crisis Escalating? JPMorgan Warns: If Harge Island is Occupied, Iran's Oil Exports Could Drop to Nearly Zero

March 10 News: In a recent research report, JPMorgan, one of the largest U.S. banks, stated that if the key energy hub Halq Island in the Persian Gulf falls under the control of a U.S.-Israeli coalition, Iran’s oil production could drop by approximately 50%, and crude oil exports might almost cease entirely. This scenario is considered one of the most impactful potential events in current Middle East geopolitical risks.

Halq Island is about 30 kilometers off the Iranian coast and is Iran’s most important crude oil export hub, responsible for about 90% of the country’s oil exports. JPMorgan’s report indicates that a direct attack or control of this facility would severely damage Iran’s oil trade system and could trigger retaliatory actions against regional energy infrastructure, even threatening the shipping security of the Strait of Hormuz.

Data shows that Iran’s current crude oil production is about 3.3 million barrels per day, with an additional approximately 1.3 million barrels of condensate and other liquid fuels, accounting for roughly 4.5% of global oil supply. Analysts believe that if this supply chain is disrupted, global energy markets could experience rapid and severe fluctuations, with international oil prices and energy security issues once again becoming focal points in financial markets.

The report also reviews historical cases. During the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, President Jimmy Carter imposed sanctions on Iran but did not attack Halq Island. In the Iran-Iraq tanker war of the 1980s, Reagan’s military actions mainly focused on protecting shipping and striking Iranian military facilities, and the island continued to operate largely normally. JPMorgan notes that even during the eight-year war, Iraq’s repeated attacks on oil tankers and storage facilities did not prevent Halq Island from quickly repairing and resuming operations. This suggests that to completely incapacitate the facility, sustained large-scale strikes would be necessary.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has again issued a tough stance in a recent interview. He stated that if Iran attempts to disrupt regional oil supplies, the U.S. will swiftly destroy related energy facilities and warned Iran and its allies that they will face “even heavier blows.”

On the market front, energy prices have already shown significant volatility. WTI crude oil briefly surged to around $119 per barrel in early trading, then fell back below $88. Analysts believe that as uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Middle Eastern energy transportation security continue to rise, global oil supply risks and geopolitical struggles are becoming key variables influencing the energy market.