Gate News, March 23 — Trump Token (TRUMP) continues to weaken, currently trading at $3.21, down 1.32% for the day, nearly erasing 50% of its mid-March gains. With on-chain data signaling a bearish trend, the market is watching whether it will test the recent low of $2.705 again.
On-chain indicators show selling pressure has not fully eased. Glassnode data indicates that during the early March rebound, a large amount of TRUMP was transferred to exchanges, with balances rising rapidly from about 15 million to 41 million tokens, an increase of approximately 26 million tokens worth nearly $100 million at that time. This concentrated selling pressure triggered a quick price decline in the short term. Although the balance later decreased to around 18.5 million, it remains above previous lows, suggesting potential selling pressure still exists in the market.
Regarding capital flow, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator remains in negative territory, currently around -0.14, one of the lowest levels in nearly a month. This indicates continuous outflows of funds, and since late February, it has failed to stabilize in positive territory, reflecting weak buying support and a cautious market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, TRUMP has fallen over 20% from its high of $4.04 on March 13 and has broken below a key Fibonacci support level. If the current trend continues, prices could decline another 15%, targeting the $2.71 area, close to the historical low. The $3.00 level is seen as an important psychological support; a daily close below this level could open further downside space.
On the upside, $3.64 is a critical short-term reversal level, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone. If the price cannot regain stability above this level, the market will likely remain weak. The short-term demand driven by offline events has significantly diminished, and the lack of new catalysts limits the rebound potential.
Under the combined influence of capital outflows and supply pressure, TRUMP is at a critical turning point. Its future price movement will depend on whether buying support can effectively absorb the remaining selling pressure.
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