#行情震荡下的投资策略 10.9 The direction choice is imminent, will the Ethereum (ETH) market break above 4500 or below 4400?

First, let's look at the short term (1-hour chart): the price quickly dropped from the high point of 4539, reaching a low around 4441, and now it seems to be operating in a descending channel. The previously critical 4500 integer level has already been broken, and now it has turned into resistance.
Looking at the daily chart: On October 8th, a candlestick with a long lower shadow was formed (rising from 4410 to 4558), which looked like a rebound was coming, but the next day it couldn't hold, instead forming a "shooting star" pattern - this often indicates selling pressure above. The previous high around 4558 has now become a strong resistance area. How do the technical indicators look? MACD: On the 1-hour level, a death cross has formed below the zero line, while the daily still shows a golden cross, but the red bars are shortening, indicating that the upward momentum is not strong enough. RSI: The 1-hour RSI dropped from 56 to 38, while the daily RSI is around 52, which is neither overbought nor oversold, and currently, no obvious divergence signals are observed. Moving Averages (EMA): The 1-hour level has consecutively fallen below the EMAs at 4490, 4505, and 4513, showing a bearish short-term arrangement. On the daily level, the EMA7 around 4473 has become the recent resistance. In terms of trading volume: On the 1-hour chart, the volume significantly increased as prices fell (for example, the volume spike at 9 AM), indicating strong selling pressure. On the daily level, after a volume rebound on October 8th, the next day showed a volume decline, which is not a healthy volume-price relationship. Moreover, the large bearish candlestick on October 7th had a massive volume, trapping many traders in that area, and any subsequent rise will encounter liquidation selling pressure. 【How to operate specifically?】 If considering going long: First buy position: Around 4400 (this is an integer support, also near the low of 4441 from an hour ago, while close to the EMA120). Second buy position: Around 4350 (if 4400 can't hold, the next integer level should see stronger buying). Stop loss set at 4320 (a bit lower than 4350 to avoid false breakdowns). If considering going short: First sell position: Around 4500 (integer resistance, also a zone of EMA7/30 pressure, with the high of 4508 from an hour ago also here). Second sell position: Around 4550 (if 4500 is briefly broken, the previous high at 4558 will be a stronger pressure zone). Stop loss set at 4580 (slightly above 4550 to avoid being washed out by false breakouts). Thought process organized: The second entry point for the long position is about 1.1% lower than the first, with a stop loss distance controlled at 0.7%, making the risk manageable. The second position for the short is about 1.1% higher than the first, with a stop loss set at only 0.6%, not being greedy in chasing shorts. The overall strategy is to combine integer levels, moving average pressures, and swing highs and lows for layout, which will increase the success rate.