#比特币市场动态 Seeing this set of data, the moments that flash through my mind are those of 2017 and 2021. Whenever the market structure becomes this unbalanced, it often signals a turning point in the cycle.

The phenomenon Jeff Park mentioned is actually quite interesting—continued selling by OG holders is itself a microcosm of an era’s transition. Those who bought at $100 or even lower have long balanced their psychological accounts; the current prices are already astronomical to them. I have seen this situation many times, each time corresponding to profound changes in the structure of market participants.

Even more noteworthy is the slowdown in demand for ETFs and DATs. In 2021, we saw institutional entry as the core driver of that rally. Now, this force is waning. What does this indicate? It suggests that the market is waiting for new narratives and fresh capital flows. Historically, every such stagnation period has often been a buildup for the next rally.

The detail that the implied volatility has dropped from 63% to 44% is particularly worth pondering. Volatility suppression itself is a form of unstable stability—it’s either the calm before the storm or a true dead silence. The rebound in November already proved the possibility of upward volatility; now, the key is whether this window can reopen.

The market structure is unfavorable for upward movement, and this judgment is correct in the short term. But from a cyclical perspective, structural imbalance often sets the stage for reversals. The real test still lies ahead.