# 比特币市场动态

#比特币市场动态 When I saw this set of on-chain data, I was silent for a while. Since the crash in October, the epic distribution to long-term holders has been ongoing, and the logic behind it is worth everyone's vigilance.
2,536,000 BTC are accumulated in the $80,000-$90,000 range. What does this mean? It indicates that those long-term retail holders are selling off their profits on a large scale. Especially those with cost bases in the $60,000-$70,000 range are selling most aggressively. The coins accumulated before the 2024 US election are now being cashed out urgently. Why are these people in su

#比特币市场动态 Seeing Murphy's on-chain data analysis, I feel a bit emotional. During the sharp decline on October 11th, I sensed it was unusual. Now, two months later, the changes in the chip structure have thoroughly confirmed my judgment.
Between $80,000 and $90,000, there are 2.536 million BTC accumulated, an increase of 1.874 million compared to before the crash. What does this mean? It indicates that a large number of long-term holders have established a new cost defense line here. But what really makes me alert is the movement of profit-taking positions—the most aggressive selling of BTC wit

#比特币市场动态 Recently, the core discussion in the crypto circle revolves around one question: why isn't it moving up? The viewpoint from Bitwise advisors hits the nail on the head — without an increase in volatility, there is no real room for price to rise. This is not nonsense; it’s a hard technical constraint.
Carefully examining the triggers for this recent decline: forced liquidations, stagnation of crypto legislation, waning corporate buying momentum, and a shift in global risk appetite towards safe-haven assets. In simple terms, the fundamental support for the bulls is gradually collapsing.

#比特币市场动态 Recently, by monitoring on-chain data, I discovered an interesting phenomenon—long-term holders are conducting epic distributions, and the cost structure of BTC chips has undergone significant changes.
The core situation is as follows: the 80,000-90,000 USD range now holds 2.536 million BTC, becoming the strongest support zone. Meanwhile, those old hands with costs in the 60,000-70,000 USD range are rushing to cash out and exit due to the four-year cycle theory and various market concerns, representing the largest volume of sell-offs.
What does this mean for us? The profit-taking ord

#比特币市场动态 Recently, discussions about the Federal Reserve's RMP have been heating up, and I think the underlying logic behind it is worth a thorough analysis.
Essentially, RMP is just a new name for the latest round of quantitative easing— the Federal Reserve is releasing liquidity, which increases the long-term depreciation pressure on fiat currency. So, what does this mean for the crypto market? Simply put, when traditional finance starts "printing money," the market will seek safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin's value as digital gold becomes more prominent.
Arthur Hayes's prediction is quite in

#比特币市场动态 On-chain capital inflow is weakening? This is the real shakeout, brothers! 🔥
CryptoQuant's data shows that BTC demand growth is slowing down. The three waves of spot ETFs, the upcoming election, and treasury companies have basically been exhausted. Perpetual futures funding rates have dropped to their lowest since December 2023, indicating a clear decline in bullish sentiment. Technical analysis also broke below the 365-day moving average, which is the dividing line between bull and bear markets.
But this is an opportunity! Santiment says there isn't enough panic yet, meaning the bo

#比特币市场动态 After reviewing Tom Lee's and IOSG's perspectives, let's clarify the core logic behind this wave of market signals.
The framework of coexistence between short-term defense and long-term optimism is indeed valid—the key lies in the misalignment of time horizons. Tom Lee emphasizes macro cycle liquidity judgments, while Fundstrat focuses on recent capital risk management; their differing responsibilities lead to variations in time frames, which is a normal division of labor among institutions and not a contradiction.
What is more noteworthy is IOSG's on-chain data: by 2025, retail inve

#比特币市场动态 Recently, I've seen a bunch of analyses suggesting that Bitcoin might drop to $75,000 or even $65,000, which was a bit shocking 😅
But after looking into the data more carefully, I found an interesting point — experts are actually saying that the market hasn't truly entered panic mode yet! That is, although prices are falling, people's psychology remains relatively optimistic, thinking a rebound will come soon. This sounds a bit contradictory, but it seems to imply that the real bottom hasn't arrived yet?
Another piece of data that scared me is that Bitcoin has already fallen below

#比特币市场动态 Seeing this set of data, the moments that flash through my mind are those of 2017 and 2021. Whenever the market structure becomes this unbalanced, it often signals a turning point in the cycle.
The phenomenon Jeff Park mentioned is actually quite interesting—continued selling by OG holders is itself a microcosm of an era’s transition. Those who bought at $100 or even lower have long balanced their psychological accounts; the current prices are already astronomical to them. I have seen this situation many times, each time corresponding to profound changes in the structure of market pa

#比特币市场动态 After reviewing the analysis from Bitwise Advisors, the current market situation is indeed a bit awkward — OG whales are selling off, new demand is slowing down, and these two forces are pulling in opposite directions. Bitcoin is caught in the middle. What's more painful is that volatility has plummeted from 63% to 44%. Behind this data tells a story: the market is losing its enthusiasm.
Recently, I’ve been reviewing copy trading records and found that many experts tend to stay on the sidelines or significantly reduce their positions in this environment. An aggressive trader has stop