These past few days, the news has been so dizzying it’s hard to keep up—US-Iran ceasefire, the reopening of Hormuz, Israel unleashing a brutal barrage on Hezbollah, and Trump saying he wants to “jointly manage” the strait... The information is exploding. I’ll simply sort it out and share a few of my own judgments.

1. The ceasefire is real, but extremely fragile
On Wednesday morning at 8 a.m., the US and Iran reached a 14-day temporary ceasefire, and Hormuz agreed to reopen. Global markets took a big breath of relief, and oil prices also fell. But before that breath is even fully out, the problem shows up:
Israel launched, that day, the most intense airstrikes against Lebanon’s Hezbollah since the start of the war, claiming it killed relatives of Hezbollah’s leadership. Iran exploded in anger, saying this was tearing up the agreement. The US threw up its hands: the war in Lebanon has nothing to do with the ceasefire we signed with them.
Look, this is the first deadlock: Israel isn’t even sitting at the negotiation table—it wants to keep fighting Hezbollah. And Hezbollah is the “adored child” Iran has raised for more than forty years, with annual funding of more than several hundred million dollars. You want Iran to watch Israel beat Hezbollah to death while it does nothing? Impossible. But once Iran makes a move, Hormuz will have to shut again—then the ceasefire is just scrap paper.
2. The agreement’s clauses say one thing while talking to different people says another; even whether talks happened or not is a mess
In the version Iran circulated to the outside world, it includes provisions such as retaining uranium enrichment—almost like terms for a winner. The US directly denied it. Trump even scolded the media for fabricating “false news,” saying that the Iran version he received is something that can be discussed.
Most likely, Iran is playing a two-pronged strategy: privately giving the US a version that can be negotiated, while publicly promoting a version that claims total victory to rally domestic confidence. Put simply, nobody wants to fight, but nobody wants to look soft.
3. Did Hormuz actually reopen or not? This is also a confusing account
Iran says it will retaliate and close the strait again. But the White House directly pointed it out: what they publicly said is not the same as what they communicated in private. We’ve observed that the traffic volume over the past few days is actually increasing instead. The oil tanker “AUROURA” turned around and returned, and rumors are flying everywhere.
4. The most worth watching for is Trump’s “joint management” of the strait
Trump proposed US-Iran “joint management” of the Strait of Hormuz—put simply, he also wants a slice of the tolls as profit. Iran hasn’t taken the bait yet, but if this really happens, it won’t be good for us.
5. Don’t expect too much from the first round of talks in Islamabad on Sunday
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