PuppiesSunYue

These past few days, the news has been so dizzying it’s hard to keep up—US-Iran ceasefire, the reopening of Hormuz, Israel unleashing a brutal barrage on Hezbollah, and Trump saying he wants to “jointly manage” the strait... The information is exploding. I’ll simply sort it out and share a few of my own judgments.
1. The ceasefire is real, but extremely fragile
On Wednesday morning at 8 a.m., the US and Iran reached a 14-day temporary ceasefire, and Hormuz agreed to reopen. Global markets took a big breath of relief, and oil prices also fell. But before that breath is even fully out, the p

Warning of US-Iran talks breaking down! The ten demands are all deadlocks
The situation in the Middle East directly determines the next direction of the crypto market
Disagreements between the US and Iran are laid bare: Strait control, nuclear rights, sanctions relief are all deadlocks. Once talks collapse, crude oil will surge, and the market will suffer heavy blows.
Don’t be naive to think that a ceasefire means everything is settled; it might just be a "buffer." If talks break down, oil prices will skyrocket, global risk assets will come under pressure, and ETH, BTC will be heavily hi

The excitement about that Iran ceasefire agreement yesterday hasn’t even faded, and today the market has poured a bucket of cold water on it.
To be honest, the first thing that crossed my mind when I saw the news was: That’s it—$BTC is definitely going to drop.
As expected, on the news front, Trump directly came out with a tough statement, saying that until Iran fully complies with the agreement, all U.S. warships and aircraft will continue to stay around Iran, and he also stressed that if they don’t comply, there will be “fire”—and it would be unprecedented. Iran is even more hardline; t

#美国伊朗同意停火两周 The Federal Reserve will announce important matters today at 2:00 PM U.S. time.
Topic: Interest rate cuts + cash injection.
First, get clear on some background:
The Federal Reserve’s emergency announcement is not something they just send out casually. The last emergency announcement was in March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out.
Before that, it was during the 2008 financial crisis.
So, the four words “emergency announcement” carry a lot of weight in the financial world—I don’t need to say more.
This time, there are two main items: interest rate cuts + liquidity injection.