# 加密周期

Cycle position: 77%
BTC has fallen 42% from its $126K peak, but the average bear market decline is 83%.
It's only been 24 months since the halving, and the average bear market lasts 29-30 months.
Another 5-6 months to go.
F&G = 16, extreme panic,
BTC.D = 57.2%, institutions are still holding onto BTC,
Altcoins are still bleeding.
Conclusion: the bottom has not yet arrived.
Don't try to guess the bottom; keep enough bullets and wait for $50-60K.
Cycle position is more important than price.
$BTC #加密周期 # Bitcoin

Did you think BTC has always been “controlled by whales”?
In reality, the whales keep changing. Different eras bring different strategies. 😎
The earliest was the [Mining Era].
In 2011 and 2013, long-term holders always sold even later than the price top—classic newbie whales: know how to mine, but don’t know how to sell.
Starting in 2017, things changed. At the very top of the price, on-chain holdings hit rock bottom at the same time—miners finally learned to “sell at the peak.”
Then came the [Mining + Exchange Era].
At the first top in 2021, on-chain was selling; at the second top, on-chain