Profitable Trader Bets $34K Against U.S. Military Intervention in Iran on Polymarket

Gate News message, April 23 — A high-performing trader (ID: Car, address: 0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b) with over $1.25 million in lifetime profits has accumulated approximately $34,000 in “No” positions on Polymarket’s “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” prediction market, according to monitoring by Odaily Seer. The trader’s average entry price was 66.8 cents.

According to market rules, “invasion” is defined as a U.S. military offensive aimed at establishing territorial control over any part of Iran before December 31, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET. If no such military action occurs by that deadline, the market will resolve to “No.” The rules specify that territorial boundaries are based on Iran’s actual control as of November 4, 2025.