I was just planning to observe, but the market responded directly. During the most intense battle between longs and shorts, $BTC bounced several times but still looked powerless. This kind of rally, lacking follow-through, is often more worth paying attention to than a simple drop. I chose to open a short around 65,034.0 for a simple reason: the key level at the top hasn’t been digested, and the rebound hasn’t formed a new continuation. After opening the position, I didn’t rush to quicken the pace—I first watched whether the price truly turned weak. When the price moved to 63,790.7, the short side received a response, with a return of +331.62%. What felt most comfortable during the process wasn’t the numbers, but the fact that my judgment wasn’t thrown off by intraday noise. The market isn’t short of opportunities—what it lacks is patience. Don’t let emotions affect your judgment. What needs to be done now isn’t to keep chasing, but to adjust according to changes and hold the space that has already appeared. Once the next signal comes out, then continue observing. $ETH $SOL

BTC’s core kernel isn’t price, but the supply of coins. Compared with short-term price fluctuations, the real core signal for BTC right now is the supply of chips (coin holdings). The total amount of coins held by long-term large holders is steadily increasing, and veteran players basically have not been dumping coins in large quantities to cash out. The chips continue to be tightened in the hands of committed holders, leaving fewer and fewer coins available for trading in the market. As circulating supply shrinks and buy orders keep coming in, market support will naturally become stronger. In past cycles, at each round’s peak, long-term capital would concentrate its selling to dump and pressure the market, but there are currently no signs of that at all. The key focus now is one thing: whether long-term holders will sell their chips on a large scale. As long as they don’t offload, combined with rising market demand, Bitcoin will quickly enter a serious shortage-of-chips行情. #NFT板块单日反弹超8% #明尼苏达预测市场禁令被叫停 #SEC主席乐观预期CLARITY法案通关 $BTC $ETH

7.29 evening BTC/ETH analysis On the daily level, the downtrend continues. The Bollinger middle band that has held for a long time has finally broken down; the downward channel has been opened. In this round of correction, whether in terms of time or magnitude, bearish momentum continues to build and release. There is still room for further pullback ahead. The market is likely to follow a wave 2 correction. The rebound strength will be limited; after a brief period of sideways consolidation, it will test lower again. In the afternoon, maintain the trend-following bearish mindset, and wait to set up again at the rebound pressure zone. BTC short from 64,300—64,800, target 62,500 ETH short from 1,930—1,960, target 1,850 $BTC $ETH