On Tuesday evening, the trends of #美国政府停运 and $BTC are worth considering. Let's start with the hourly chart. Bitcoin's recent correction did not continue to drop sharply; instead, there is a slight rebound indication. Currently, the price is fluctuating in the middle range. The bulls' momentum is not very strong, maintaining a sideways consolidation pattern. The candlestick channel is basically flat, and the moving averages are beginning to entangle. In the short term, some fluctuations are still expected, but this is actually the bulls reloading for a push later on. So the strategy is clear—buy on dips. Looking at the four-hour chart, after the price stabilized above the middle band and moved upward, the channel gradually widened. The bullish volume clearly increased, and the moving averages are slowly rising. The retracement in the smaller timeframe has completed its bottoming and recharging phase. The upward correction is likely to continue, but don’t expect a straight shot to the top; phase-wise oscillations will still occur. How to operate? Bitcoin: Consider buying in the 105,000-104,500 range, targeting around 107,000-108,000. Ethereum: Enter long positions in the 3,560-3,530 area, with targets around 3,600-3,660. Of course, the market is always changing. This analysis is based on current technicals, but actual execution should be adjusted according to real-time market conditions.

Countdown to the US Dollar Credit Crisis: A $30 trillion bomb is about to explode, can Bitcoin take over as "digital gold"? US President Trump suddenly threw out a warning about a "$30 trillion tariff refund crisis," triggering severe shocks in global markets. This astronomical figure, equivalent to 10% of the US annual GDP, not only exposes the structural cracks in the dollar credit system but also foreshadows an unprecedented wave of asset reallocation that is brewing. This article analyzes the vulnerability of dollar hegemony, the technological attributes of the crypto market, and historical patterns, revealing potential wealth transfer paths that may emerge in this crisis, and providing rational coping strategies for investors. 1. $30 trillion bomb: The "time bomb" of the U.S. dollar credit system 1. The Economic Impact Behind Digital ● Scale reference: $30 trillion is equivalent to 10% of the US GDP in 2024, exceeding the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction size (approximately $2.5 trillion) ● Chain Reaction: If forced to return funds, the U.S. Treasury will face liquidity exhaustion, directly triggering a historic collapse of the U.S. dollar index with a single-day drop exceeding 3%. ● Historical Comparison: The maximum single-day decline of the US Dollar Index during the 2008 Lehman Crisis was 2.8%. The current systemic risk has already surpassed that level. 2. The Deep Meaning Behind Trump's Warning ● Systemic crisis: When the White House begins to publicly discuss "the nation's inability to sustain itself," it signifies that the trust anchor of the dollar credit system is failing. ● Policy Contradiction: The conflict between tariff policies and the federal budget law exposes the "Ship of Theseus" dilemma of the U.S. financial system—when the debt scale exceeds 100 trillion, any policy adjustment may trigger systemic shocks. 2. Technical Advantages of the Crypto Market: Ultimate Insurance of Decentralization 1. Redefinition of Anti-Inflation Properties ● Scarcity validation: The total supply limit of Bitcoin is 21 million coins, demonstrating gold-like anti-dilution characteristics during the overproduction cycle of the US dollar. ● Historical Data: During periods of U.S. dollar weakness, Bitcoin's increase generally exceeds 200% (the cycle from 2013 to 2017 reached 30 times). 2. Decentralized hedging demand ● Institutional Trends: In Q3 2025, the amount of Bitcoin purchased by sovereign wealth funds surged by 420% year-on-year, with the holdings ratio rising to 3.8% of asset allocation. ● Technical Indicators: Bitcoin's 30-day volatility has dropped to 25%, and its correlation with the S&P 500 has fallen below 0.5, confirming the evolution of its safe-haven asset attributes. 3. Wealth Transfer in Crisis: The Leap from Fiat Currency to Code 1. The underlying logic of capital flow ● Risk aversion curve: When the US dollar index falls below 100, the inflow of Bitcoin funds shows a strong positive correlation of 0.87 with the outflow of US dollars. ● Historical Case: When the USD Index broke 114 in 2022, Bitcoin experienced a 60% deep correction; the current technical aspect has formed a key support level. 2. Key Time Node Prediction ● Short-term window: When the US dollar index drops below 105, Bitcoin may trigger technical buying, testing the resistance level of 120,000. ● Mid-term trend: If the crisis escalates, Bitcoin must meet three conditions to break through $150,000: a. The Federal Reserve stops tapering (probability 68%) b. Gold price breaks through $3000/ounce (probability 52%) c. Bitcoin ETF net inflows have exceeded $5 billion for three consecutive months (probability 41%) IV. Strategies for Rational Investors 1. The "three-tier defense" of asset allocation ● Core position: Bitcoin accounts for 30%, locking in the anti-inflation base. ● Flexible Position: Ethereum + Stablecoin combination accounts for 20%, capturing DeFi liquidity premium ● Risk hedging: Gold ETF + US Dollar Index futures account for 10%, balancing market volatility 2. The Key Red Line of Risk Control ● Liquidity Management: Maintain at least 30% cash position to avoid forced liquidation. ● Technical Signal Monitoring: Closely track the on-chain funding rate of Bitcoin (>0.03% triggers a reduction signal) ● Policy window period: Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December for its stance on the US dollar credit. V. Conclusion: Credit Reconstruction in the Era of Code As the dollar hegemony faces a "stress test" of 3 trillion dollars, the crypto market is standing at a historical crossroads. Whether Bitcoin can truly replace gold as "digital gold" depends on its ability to demonstrate three key capabilities in a crisis: 1. Value anchoring: becoming the new unit of account when the dollar system collapses 2. Network effects: Attracting sovereign funds to create a positive cycle. 3. Technological Evolution: Addressing Scalability and Energy Consumption Issues to Enhance Practical Value This crisis is both a challenge and an opportunity. For investors, it is important to understand: when national credit begins to collapse, the distributed trust system built on code may very well be the gold standard of the next era. #美元信用危机 Bitcoin hedge #加密资产配置 fiat currency system collapse #数字黄金革命# CoinDesk November report Gate's performance is coming ##广场发币瓜分千U奖池 #XRP现货ETF将上线 .