Bitcoin Recovery Hinges on Fed Cuts, Russian Experts Predict No Rebound Before Spring 2026 - Crypto Economy

TL;DR:

• Russian analysts warn Bitcoin may not rebound until spring 2026 unless the Fed cuts interest rates.
• High borrowing costs and weak risk appetite continue to weigh on BTC, with reduced trading activity and fading institutional inflows.
• Experts say monetary policy will drive the next recovery phase, with market fragility and macro uncertainty limiting short-term upside.

Bitcoin’s recent downturn has intensified anxiety across the market as analysts warn that a meaningful recovery may be months away, tied closely to expectations around upcoming Federal Reserve decisions. Russian financial experts suggest that Bitcoin’s path forward appears constrained, arguing that a rebound is unlikely until at least spring 2026 unless the Fed moves decisively on rate cuts.

Experts Say Fed Policy Is Key to Bitcoin’s Next Market Phase

Russian analysts have raised concerns that the macroeconomic landscape remains unfavorable, highlighting persistent high interest rates that continue to suppress risk-asset appetite. They argue that as long as borrowing costs stay elevated, liquidity will remain tight, limiting the flow of capital into Bitcoin and other digital assets. With the Fed signaling caution, hopes for immediate relief have dimmed.


The report notes that Bitcoin’s recent decline below $90,000 has fueled growing doubts about the asset’s short-term momentum. Market observers point to reduced trading activity, weakening sentiment, and fading institutional inflows as contributing factors. Some experts warn that the crypto market’s current structure resembles late-cycle exhaustion, where buyers remain hesitant amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

A key argument from Russian economists is that Bitcoin’s next recovery phase hinges on the Fed making at least one rate cut, which could unlock liquidity and re-energize investor risk-taking. Until that shift occurs, they predict the cryptocurrency will struggle to regain upward momentum. Analysts caution that even if the Fed introduces reductions in early 2026, the effects may take months to filter into market behavior.

The analysis also highlights the growing divergence between speculative interest and fundamental adoption metrics. While on-chain activity shows pockets of resilience, the broader market remains fragile, with volatility spikes reflecting heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic news. Observers suggest that traders should prepare for a prolonged consolidation period unless catalyzing events emerge.

According to these projections, the earliest realistic window for a sustainable Bitcoin recovery appears to be spring 2026. Analysts emphasize that market resilience will depend heavily on monetary policy, alongside renewed institutional engagement once clearer macro signals surface. Until then, cautious sentiment may prevail as traders navigate ongoing uncertainty.