Bitcoin fell below $82,000, you must know these 10 things.

Fall: Bitcoin's "Black Friday"
For Bitcoin, last Friday was a true "Black Friday."
On November 21, Bitcoin fell below the 82,000 USD mark and once approached the 80,000 USD threshold. Compared to the historical high of 126,000 USD set on October 6, it has dropped by a full 35%. In the past 24 hours, the total amount of liquidations across the network exceeded an astonishing 1 billion USD. Hundreds of thousands of traders lost everything in this crash.
Oh my. 1 billion dollars.
Although it's normal for Bitcoin to experience ups and downs, why has this time come so fiercely and so suddenly?
I'll try to help you sort it out.
This has to do with the direct cause of the fall:
Professional institutions have heavily sold off their Bitcoin ETFs.

02

Bitcoin ETF: A "pork ticket" for one Bitcoin

What is a "Bitcoin ETF"?

You want to invest in pork. Because you think the price of pork will rise.

But in the past, you had to raise pigs yourself. It was time-consuming, labor-intensive, and high-risk. However, now a trust company has emerged. They bought 1 million pigs and placed them in a professional pigpen. Then, they divided the ownership of these 1 million pigs into 100 million "pork tickets" and listed these tickets for trading on the stock exchange. So, you only need to open a stock account to buy "pork tickets" just like trading stocks. Or you can give it another name, called "Pork ETF."

That's right, this "pork ticket" is an ETF. Its full name is Exchange-Traded Fund.

The so-called Bitcoin ETF is a "Bitcoin ticket." It allows you to enjoy the profits and losses associated with the rise and fall of Bitcoin without holding the actual Bitcoin.

In January 2024, it was finally officially approved by U.S. regulators. Why was it approved? There are many reasons. But the direct reason for the approval was that regulators lost to the crypto company in a key lawsuit. At the same time, Wall Street financial giant BlackRock also took the lead in applying. Ultimately, regulators had no choice but to open the floodgates.

From now on, not only gold and oil have ETFs. Bitcoin also has an ETF.

However, although the ETF will not change the attributes of Bitcoin, it has completely changed the way of entering and exiting.

On one hand, it is a "super onboarding channel." A large amount of funds can easily flow in. On the other hand, it is also a "super offboarding channel." These funds can be withdrawn from the battlefield at an unprecedented speed, like lightning.

So, in good times, why are professional institutions selling off Bitcoin ETFs in large quantities and quickly withdrawing from the battlefield?

It is because they heard a series of "hawkish remarks" from the Federal Reserve.

03

Hawkish remarks: Don't even think about it, absolutely no rate cuts

What hawkish remarks?

Give a recent example.

On November 20, 2025, the day before the fall, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech. Let's first take a look at his original words:

"While we acknowledge that we have made some progress, the inflation rate remains stubbornly above our 2% target. It would be extremely immature to declare victory now or to start speculating about the timing of interest rate cuts. We are fully prepared to maintain a tight policy stance—essentially keeping interest rates 'higher for longer'—until we are convinced that the task of combating inflation is truly complete."

This speech contains a lot of key information. For example, inflation remains stubborn; for example, speculating about interest rate cuts now is extremely immature; for example, keeping interest rates "at a higher level for a longer time."

Translated, it means, "Stop dreaming, the problem is more serious than you think"; "Your previous expectations about a rate cut in December are completely wrong and wishful thinking. I officially deny it"; "The high interest rate environment will become the new normal in the future, not a temporary situation. The party is over."

But if we were to summarize it into a core conclusion, it can actually be summed up in one sentence.

"I can tell you right now that we will not lower interest rates."

But what does not lowering interest rates have to do with institutional selling?

Because Powell's statement is essentially telling the market that the "new bonds" of U.S. Treasury will have higher interest rates.

04

New bond interest rate: the "official guide price" of money

Why? Why will there be higher new bond yields if there is no "interest rate cut"?

You can think of the financial market as a "supermarket of money."

The Federal Reserve is the general manager of this supermarket. In his hands, there is a special counter called the official risk-free financial counter. Not lowering interest rates is equivalent to the general manager shouting through a loudspeaker, "My official counter will continue to offer an annual interest rate of 5.5%. And, zero risk."

This 5.5% is the "official guide price" of the entire money supermarket.

Now, as the stallholder, the U.S. government needs to issue a batch of new promissory notes, that is, new national debt, to borrow money from the customers. So, can it offer a 3% interest? No. Because customers would think, am I crazy? Then why wouldn't I just deposit my money at the general manager's counter with an annualized rate of 5.5%?

That's right, the effect of the official guide price is that any bond that is "more expensive" (with a lower interest rate) than it cannot be sold.

Therefore, in order to truly borrow money, the new debt issued by the U.S. government must align with the official interest rate of the Federal Reserve, or even higher. For example, 6%.

This is the causal relationship between "no interest rate cuts" and "new bond yields will be high."

However, this new bond is still a matter for the future. It hasn't been issued yet. So why are the institutions starting to sell off now?

Because everyone knows that as soon as this "expectation" appears, the price of assets will start to fall.

05
Expectation: The market will adapt to "yield" using the method of "fall in price".
Why is this?
Because no one is a fool. When a higher-yield asset is about to appear and the interest cannot be changed, low-yield assets will adjust their yields by "falling in price."
It's like you spend 2 million to buy a house. The annual rent is 100,000. My rental yield is 5%. If the rent cannot change, and the price falls by half to 1 million, the rental yield will immediately double to 10%, and someone might be willing to buy it.
Similarly, when it is anticipated that there will be new bonds with an interest rate of 6% in the future, many people will sell off their old bonds with only a 3% interest rate. The old bonds are sold off in large quantities, causing their prices to fall.
When will it fall? The details are very complex. But generally speaking, the price of old debt will continue to fall until its yield rises to be roughly in line with the expected yield of new debt, and the market finds a new equilibrium.
So, it's time to sell now. Because now is when there are good prices.
Moreover, it's not just about shedding old debts; high Beta assets like Bitcoin must be quickly disposed of.

06
High Beta Assets: "Volatile" assets that everyone wants to get rid of.
What is a "high Beta asset"?
You can think of Beta as an indicator of the "volatility of an asset's temperament."
If you consider the Beta value of the entire market to be 1, it's like an ordinary family sedan. Those assets with particularly high Beta values are like F1 racing cars. On sunny days (Risk-On), many people like to drive racing cars because they have the potential to deliver excess returns. But on rainy days (Risk-Off), many people will enter risk-averse mode, selling off the racing cars that are prone to losing control and switching back to the safer family sedan.
Bitcoin is a typical high Beta asset. Therefore, it should be prioritized for selling. In fact, it should be sold on a large scale. Data shows that in the weeks leading up to November 21, there was a net outflow of funds for the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF for five consecutive weeks. The total amount sold reached as high as $2.6 billion.
Alright. So it was for hedging that the institutions sold off these assets. But why did it trigger a crash that caused hundreds of thousands of people to liquidate?
The actions of the institutions have triggered a panic sell-off.

07
Panic stampede: boulders rolling down, crowd dispersing, chain explosions
What is "panic selling"?
At the beginning, it was a boulder rolling down.
As the main force, the institutions' selling, even if rational, is equivalent to pushing a boulder off a mountain top. The balance of buying and selling in the market is disrupted. Prices begin to show the first wave of fall.
Next, the crowd disperses.
Thousands of retail investors, seeing the rolling boulder, are easily dominated by fear and begin to sell off. Because even the large institutions have run away, if they don't run now, it will be too late. As a result, the scope of the sell-off begins to expand, and prices fall more rapidly.
Finally, a series of explosions.
The accelerated fall in prices triggered the "forced liquidation" of leveraged trading, also known as liquidation. After that, a downward spiral began. Prices fell, triggering liquidations. Liquidations further pushed down prices. Pushing down prices triggered more liquidations...
In the world of investing, fear runs faster than greed. And running faster than fear are computer programs.
So, why did Bitcoin fall sharply?
This is because the Federal Reserve's hawkish remarks have made new bonds highly attractive. To hedge against risks, institutions prioritized selling off high-risk Bitcoins while simultaneously selling old bonds. The massive sell-off of Bitcoins ultimately triggered panic and a market crash.
Yes. Essentially, this is about taking advantage of the U.S. government.

08
Taking advantage of the U.S. government's resources: Capital has no faith, only flow.
What is "shearing the wool from the American government"?
Let me tell you an interesting story.
In order to regulate the traffic order in the city (to combat inflation), the police chief (Federal Reserve) ordered that the central bank's vault (U.S. government) must remain unlocked 24 hours a day. Anyone who wants to take money can go in directly.
The bank president is not happy. But there is nothing to do but follow through.
As for Xiao Wang, who was originally driving a modified racing car (Bitcoin), he was getting ready for an adventure. Upon hearing that the doors weren't locked, he immediately sold the racing car and ran to that zero-risk bank, encouraged by the police chief, to take that guaranteed profit.
This is "shearing the sheep."
Specifically, it means selling high-risk assets like Bitcoin, and using the money obtained to purchase risk-free government bonds, which are ultimately paid for by taxpayers, with a relatively high interest rate.
Capital, without faith, only flow.
The collapse of Bitcoin has once again proven this principle.
But this is too absurd. Federal Reserve, why would you go against the U.S. government?
Because they have their own duties.

09
Throttle and brake: Ensure the classic car doesn't fall apart.
The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve are like the "accelerator" and "brake" in a car.
The US government (Treasury) is the accelerator. Its task is to spend money, borrow money, and stimulate the economy. Therefore, it hopes that the interest on borrowed money is as low as possible.
The Federal Reserve is the brake. Its task is to maintain price stability (control inflation) and achieve maximum employment. To prevent the engine from overheating (inflation) due to excessive speed, it sometimes steps on the brake (raises interest rates or maintains high rates). Although many times, this can make those pressing the accelerator feel very uncomfortable.
This system design that takes control of the brakes away from politicians is called "central bank independence." The purpose is to prevent a greater disaster, namely, hyperinflation. Because historically, there have been countless governments that, after gaining control of the printing press, printed money recklessly, ultimately leading to economic collapse.
So, it seems that they are working against each other. But their ultimate goal is the same: to ensure that this over 200-year-old American classic car does not fall apart.

10

Complex systems: Never anthropomorphize the system.

Alright. Back to Bitcoin.

So, will Bitcoin continue to fall, or will it迎来上涨?

It's hard to say.

But so far, perhaps what we should learn from this is to "not anthropomorphize the system."

Some people say that this crash is a conspiracy by certain manipulators, that some bad people are doing evil.

I don't know if there are any. But I am willing to believe that this is the result of countless individuals within the system, such as the Federal Reserve, the U.S. government, institutions, and retail investors, making choices that they at least believe are beneficial under their respective rules and motivations. And these choices come together to finally create the situation we see today.

So, do not try to find enemies in the system, but rather strive to find patterns in the system.

Then, you can have a clearer understanding than others.

Even see clearly the direction of the tide. #内容挖矿赚丰厚返佣 #晒出我的Alpha积分 $BTC $ETH $ZEC