The probability of The Federal Reserve (FED) cutting interest rates in July is 14.5%.

Golden Ten Data on June 17, according to CME’s “Fed Observation”: the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 85.5%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 14.5%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 0%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 32.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 58.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 8.9%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 5.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 26.0%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 41.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 24.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 3.0%.